RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis
S&P500 versus Russell 3000
Does not look like breadth is improving significantly. PRice [1] below the falling 50 and 150 day SMAs. Hard to tell if the Weinstein Momentum [5] and 1% A/D [6] are bottoming. The % stocks over the 20, 50 and 200 day EMAs [11-13] are rising. However, the Gold Cross Index [15] is still moving downwards and it is hard to sell what the Silver Cross Index is doing [14].
RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis
Interesting on the commodities front
I plot a commodities ETF versus a basket of commodities. This basket excludes previous metals and oil and gas. On price [1] there was a pennant / flag, which broke out on the upside and promptly failed. The A/D line [2, red] has diverged (not clear on this chart scale) but the a/d volume [2, yellow] has not. Weinstein Momentum [5] is falling and the 1% A.D line has crossed below the zero [6]. The various McClellan indicators [7-10] are all negative. The % stocks above their 20, 50 and 200 day EMAs have all dropped significantly as has the Silver and Gold Cross Indicies [14 & 15].
Perhaps someone with more knowledge of economics would like to comment?
RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis
S&P500 versus Russell 3000
There is a recent higher low [1] and a slight strengthening in the % stocks above the 20 & 50 day EMAs [11,12] (ignore the glitches) but the Gold Cross Index is still sloping down [15]. So maybe a very short term small sign of strength, but overall bearish.
(This post was last modified: 2022-07-10, 01:00 PM by pcabc.)
RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis
Commodities
Commodities ex oil & gas ex precious metals:
My breath chart, looked at in the shorter term, shows weakening breadth in this commodity index. However, the longer term trendline, not touched 3 points yet, might be an indication that a longer term uptrend remains intact. This breadth excludes precious metals and oil & gas producers.
Oil & Gas producers:
FOr the oil and gas producers breath has plummeted over the last couple of weeks as the crude price has dropped [1]. However, if this trend line is correct this could just be a pull back in a longer uptrend. Who knows?
On a 2 year chart of natural gas prices prices can drop a bit more before an obvious trend line is hit:
Gold v gold miners:
Gold miner breadth is horrible. Gold has plummeted. The rounded bottom I had surmised a while back is broken. Looks like there might be support at 1700? Don't know about anyone else, but I'm seeing a lot of adverts for investing in gold on Youtube.
Milling wheat:
Not sure if this is a reasonable one to track, but grain is in the news. Just bouncing off a trend line right now.
So, a we about to see reports that inflation is dropping followed by it skyrocketing?
RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis
Stirrings in crypto?
Bitcoin is below its falling 50 and 150 day SMAs, so still firmly stage 4. However, we have had a recent high above the range of the last few weeks [1] and a lot of te shorter term breadth indicators have risen, especially the % stocks above their 20 day SMA [11]. The various McClellan oscillators / indicies have risen [7-10]. 1% A/D is angled up [6]. This as resulted in very short, short [A, red and blue] and the medium term [B, green] overall scores rising.
Need to consider thant I found the data very bitty over the last week or so. However, something bay be happening. Question, is this a bottom or just a rally to an MA before a further drop?
