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Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis - Page 470

RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis

S&P500 versus Russell 3000

Does not look like breadth is improving significantly.  PRice [1] below the falling 50 and 150 day SMAs.  Hard to tell if the Weinstein Momentum [5] and 1% A/D [6] are bottoming. The % stocks over the 20, 50 and 200 day EMAs [11-13] are rising.  However, the Gold Cross Index [15] is still moving downwards and it is hard to sell what the Silver Cross Index is doing [14].
   

RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis

Interesting on the commodities front

I plot a commodities ETF versus a basket of commodities.  This basket excludes previous metals and oil and gas. On price [1] there was a pennant / flag, which broke out on the upside and promptly failed.  The A/D line [2, red] has diverged (not clear on this chart scale) but the a/d volume [2, yellow] has not.  Weinstein Momentum [5] is falling and the 1% A.D line has crossed below the zero [6].  The various McClellan indicators [7-10] are all negative.  The % stocks above their 20, 50 and 200 day EMAs have all dropped significantly as has the Silver and Gold Cross Indicies [14 & 15].

Perhaps someone with more knowledge of economics would like to comment?



   

RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis

S&P500 versus Russell 3000

There is a recent higher low [1] and a slight strengthening in the % stocks above the 20 & 50 day EMAs [11,12] (ignore the glitches) but the Gold Cross Index is still sloping down [15].  So maybe a very short term small sign of strength, but overall bearish.
   

(This post was last modified: 2022-07-10, 01:00 PM by pcabc.)

RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis

Commodities

Commodities ex oil & gas ex precious metals:

My breath chart, looked at in the shorter term, shows weakening breadth in this commodity index.  However, the longer term trendline, not touched 3 points yet, might be an indication that a longer term uptrend remains intact.  This breadth excludes precious metals and oil & gas producers.
   



Oil & Gas producers:
FOr the oil and gas producers breath has plummeted over the last couple of weeks as the crude price has dropped [1].  However, if this trend line is correct this could just be a pull back in a longer uptrend.  Who knows?
   

On a 2 year chart of natural gas prices prices can drop a bit more before an obvious trend line is hit:
   


Gold v gold miners:
Gold miner breadth is horrible.  Gold has plummeted.  The rounded bottom I had surmised a while back is broken.  Looks like there might be support at 1700?  Don't know about anyone else, but I'm seeing a lot of adverts for investing in gold on Youtube.
   

Milling wheat:
Not sure if this is a reasonable one to track, but grain is in the news.  Just bouncing off a trend line right now.
   

So, a we about to see reports that inflation is dropping followed by it skyrocketing?

RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis

My scoring system overviews

Just for interest.

Major indices:
   



Commodities:
   


US Sectors:
   


US Technology breadth:
It looks like one of the stronger sectors from the overview, but when you examine it, don't get too excited.
   

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RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis

Stirrings in crypto?

Bitcoin is below its falling 50 and 150 day SMAs, so still firmly stage 4.  However, we have had a recent high above the range of the last few weeks [1] and a lot of te shorter term breadth indicators have risen, especially the % stocks above their 20 day SMA [11].  The various McClellan oscillators / indicies have risen [7-10].  1% A/D is angled up [6].  This as resulted in very short, short [A, red and blue] and the medium term [B, green] overall scores rising. 

Need to consider thant I found the data very bitty over the last week or so.  However, something bay be happening.  Question, is this a bottom or just a rally to an MA before a further drop?

   



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