Breadth is suggestive that we've put in a significant low imo. So have changed my stages rating to Stage 4B-, which is that we could have now seen the low for ...
Thanks. I've got positions several of short ETFs. Unfortunately though they have moved far the the investor stop loss positions IMHO have generally not moved from their initial positions. I could pick trader stop losses (flipping between trader and investor?!) but even then there are not good clear stop loss positions nor have clear trendlines formed. Maybe one for a blog post. I'm obviously concerned about giving away more of my gains (or recouped losses, than necessary) whilst knowing that too tight stop losses don't do you any good.
UK:
Note, I've recalculated the breadth data as unbeknownst to myself my database had been deleting stocks that I had not viewed in the last 6 months. That might have skewed the data. However, suspect differences are small.
PCABC just read about your shorts, I urge you to add the MACD to your timing tools, look at this graph http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=indu the short sale bearish crossover was in November, and the bullish crossover to close out shorts was in January, now it's racing up again, the shorts will be squeezed out, MACD will cross over bearishly again soon, and that is the re-short signal, I'm mostly in cash awaiting that signal
(2016-03-03, 09:59 PM)shaunattwood Wrote: PCABC just read about your shorts, I urge you to add the MACD to your timing tools, look at this graph http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=indu the short sale bearish crossover was in November, and the bullish crossover to close out shorts was in January, now it's racing up again, the shorts will be squeezed out, MACD will cross over bearishly again soon, and that is the re-short signal, I'm mostly in cash awaiting that signal
Thanks. I've pulled up the stop losses and am looking at whether they penetrate the MA150d - which some are very close to. Over February I've made some good gains, but yes, some are slightly in the red and some now have smaller gains. Do you use the MACD alone or in conjunction with stage analysis? According to the chart you linked Nov, from a Stage analysis perspective would not be a good time to short owing to being above the MA. Rather breaking below 17000 in the first week of Jan would make sense. The shape of short index ETFs does look a little more tricky.
Having read elsewhere about silver I've calculated a breadth chart based on a pool of miners. I've had issues with my calculations before so be wary of this data.
PCABC,
As far as I'm concerned, we are in a bear market rally. these rallies often take individual shares and some indices above the hundred and fifty day MA, but as long as the slope of the major indices is down, I'm not concerned by minor violations. The problem with being short in a bear market is that the rallies are long and protracted, shares actually spend more days going up, and the falls are sudden and steep. I use the MACD in conjunction with everything else. It doesn't work so good in a bull markets, but if you go back to the previous bear market of 2008, it worked like a charm, and it's been 100% accurate in the present bear market. As soon as it rolls over and crosses - from I predict around the 200 line - I'm massively going to increase my shorts. When it reverses again and crosses from way below the zero line, I'll be closing out my shorts.
Relative Performance Charts of Gold, Silver, Copper and Crude Oil
Relative performance is one of the four key components of Weinstein's method, and can be used to make sure you are focused on the right area of the market at the right time. As not all Stage 2 advances are created equal, hence, you need to focus on the areas showing the strongest relative performance in order to get onboard the best Stage 2 advances.
So with the strength coming back into precious metals and some commodities over the last few months I wanted to show different relative performance charts for Gold, Silver, Copper and Crude Oil to give an idea where we stand currently with each one, and whether any are on or close to a buy signal versus the S&P 500 market.
Gold - the weekly relative performance chart made a Stage 2A breakout in early February. The monthly relative performance chart closed back above it's 30 month MA for the first time in four years in February. And the 3% relative performance P&F chart had it's first double top breakout signal in February in four years, putting the P&F relative performance back on a buy signal.
Silver - the weekly relative performance chart made a Stage 2A breakout in early February, but immediately reversed and pulled back to the 30 week MA over the last three weeks, where it rebounded this week. So still Stage 1 on the weekly relative performance chart. On the monthly relative performance chart the move since the November bottom has given it it's first higher high since 2011, but it's still a fair way below it's declining 30 month MA currently. The 3% relative performance P&F chart has been basing for the last two years, and made it's second double top breakout in February, following a failed breakout in 2014, but it has pulled back below in a column of Os, and so is on a weak relative performance buy signal currently, and needs to make a further double top breakout to confirm the relative performance buy signal.
Copper - the weekly relative performance chart has moved into early Stage 1, following it's most recent bottom in November. The monthly relative performance chart shows a strong bounce, but it's still in Stage 4B, and is still below the most recent swing high and far below a still declining 30 month MA. Which is again shown on the 3% relative performance P&F chart, which has moved back into a column of Xs, but hasn't had a double top breakout signal since 2010, and has made continuous double bottom breakdowns since Sept 2011. So we'd need to see a double top breakout for Copper to become more interesting again.
Crude Oil - the weekly relative performance chart is in Stage 4B, with it's latest swing low in February, although it's had a strong bounce for a few weeks. The monthly relative performance chart is a bleaker picture with the ratio extremely far below it declining 30 month MA, with only a slight uptick since the start of the year. The 3% relative performance P&F chart is more promising however, as it's only one box away from a potential double top breakout signal, and so although in Stage 4B on the weekly, the P&F relative performance chart is showing some positive signs, so it could outperfrom stocks in the short term if it makes the double top breakout signal, even though it's in a weak long term position.
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
(2016-03-05, 02:04 PM)shaunattwood Wrote: PCABC,
As far as I'm concerned, we are in a bear market rally. these rallies often take individual shares and some indices above the hundred and fifty day MA, but as long as the slope of the major indices is down, I'm not concerned by minor violations. The problem with being short in a bear market is that the rallies are long and protracted, shares actually spend more days going up, and the falls are sudden and steep. I use the MACD in conjunction with everything else. It doesn't work so good in a bull markets, but if you go back to the previous bear market of 2008, it worked like a charm, and it's been 100% accurate in the present bear market. As soon as it rolls over and crosses - from I predict around the 200 line - I'm massively going to increase my shorts. When it reverses again and crosses from way below the zero line, I'll be closing out my shorts.
Shaun, thank you. So to ensure that I have a proper grasp of your strategy: You wait for the index to go into a clear stage 4 with corresponding market breadth signs and you then use the MACD for buy and sell signals. I presume you use MACD instead of the usual stage analysis breakdowns as the entry and exit points would be quite different?
The inverse index shape is quite different from some stock charts as it has narrow spikes that align with narrow dips in the index. I've wondered if the standard breakdown method works as well here. Certainly I bought one inverse ETF on a pullback (up) and it performed much better for me.
