[isatrader]

Momentum Index at six year lows - 20 year chart

   

[shaunattwood]

PCABC,
I have made no progress in the last month due to whipsaws, stop losses and commissions. I'm hoping for a big down move to make a tidy profit.

[gbarbs]

Momentum Index at six year lows - 20 year chart

Would you consider this "hovering"? It certainly does not look like it on this time scale but the 2 yr time scale looks different its been near the zero line a few months. Maybe I'm overanalyzing but he mentions a move below when it is hovering is less meaningful is all.

momentum index on the bottom on a 3 yr time scale

[pcabc]

PCABC,
I have made no progress in the last month due to whipsaws, stop losses and commissions. I'm hoping for a big down move to make a tidy profit.

Hmm. Thanks for the comparison. Elaborating on earlier posts I've probably been losing, my portfolio has been moderately static but that is with the addition of my SIPP contribution.

Presently I have:

Equity:
CCT.L and CHRT.L

Property:
M&G Property fund
GPOR.L
IUKP.L
IPRP.L

Bonds:
IBTM.L

Short index ETFS:
XUKS.L
XSDX.L
XSPS.L

The equities have basically stopped in a narrow range after a good gain. If the market goes up who knows, they might follow. If the market goes down they may stop out.

The bond is not doing much but has not hit its stop loss either. Should I sell on a negligible gain or just leave and see if it does not hit the stop loss?

The short index ETFs have on the whole lost a fair amount. I bought them 'breaking out' but they then quickly dropped back. Whether I should have immediately sole I'm not sure - this might be my weakness. To hit the stop losses the underling indexes would have to make continuations. I have a feeling that these sort of short index trackers are best bought on pulling up to the MA. If the market drops significantly these hopefully will do well. But they have not over the previous months and are loosing for me so far.

Property:
The M&G fund is slowly rising with little volatility but very modest gains. Whether the REITs or REIT ETFs would stop out if equities drop I am not sure.

Cash. I have a fair bit in cash.

At present I which ever way the market goes I will likely loose on some and make on the others. The worst is a slow meandering sideways movement.

[isatrader]

Would you consider this "hovering"? It certainly does not look like it on this time scale but the 2 yr time scale looks different its been near the zero line a few months. Maybe I'm overanalyzing but he mentions a move below when it is hovering is less meaningful is all.

momentum index on the bottom on a 3 yr time scale

It just looks like a further downward continuation, although it doesn't mean anything on it's own. But does add another negative to the overall Weight of Evidence, with other breadth indicators turning down again as well, after the short term rally. So the Weight of Evidence is suggesting some caution again imo.

[shaunattwood]

If Dow closes below 17,200 and SPX below 2020 then we have a high probability of the second leg down in the bear market. I'm looking to take advantage of the high volatility by adding to shorts on a DOW rally of 200 points (taking it back towards 17,600).

[pcabc]

If Dow closes below 17,200 and SPX below 2020 then we have a high probability of the second leg down in the bear market. I'm looking to take advantage of the high volatility by adding to shorts on a DOW rally of 200 points (taking it back towards 17,600).

If you did that you would be shorting when the index was above its MA, albeit a falling one. That said, recent limited experience with short index ETFs shows that buying when pulling back to the MA is much lower risk.

[isatrader]

If you did that you would be shorting when the index was above its MA, albeit a falling one. That said, recent limited experience with short index ETFs shows that buying when pulling back to the MA is much lower risk.

Check your chart suppliers data, as Shaun is right, as both indexes are below their 30 week MA's (see attached), and so closes below those levels would see the potential resumption of the Stage 4 breakdown that began in the summer.