[shaunattwood]

With markets heading back to 150 day ma's and MACD sell signal still intact, I've reopened short position by buying SPXU @ 30.91. Although US market's such as INDU and SPX rose above their 150 day ma's, world markets such as FTSE still below down-sloping 150 day ma's. Still looks bleak out there with possible escalation in the Middle East.

[mongoose1969]

With markets heading back to 150 day ma's and MACD sell signal still intact, I've reopened short position by buying SPXU @ 30.91. Although US market's such as INDU and SPX rose above their 150 day ma's, world markets such as FTSE still below down-sloping 150 day ma's. Still looks bleak out there with possible escalation in the Middle East.

Hi Shaun,

I'm reading the book and looking through these threads. I wondered if you could clarify your statement. Does this mean that this really isn't the right time to be buying long on any positions? I'm still working through best settings and sites to screen for stocks that would be Stage 1 position, but it seems like even if some are found, we are best served sitting on the sidelines (unless we want to jump in with short positions). I'm going to hold off on learning about short positions until I can master long positions. One thing at a time

[shaunattwood]

Hi Mongoose,
My research has led me to believe that the Aug breakdown has a high probability of being the first down leg of a new bear market. The rally that peaked in Nov is ominous because the Dec Dow peak was lower than Nov. If the markets sell off today then we'll have all of the major averages (DOW, SPX) back below their 150 day ma's which rolled over several months ago and have been downsloping ever since. Personally, I'm short SPX via going long SPXU, and I will remain short while the DOW and SPX stay below their 150 day ma's. I'd only recommend going long if the averages rise back above their 150 day ma's (and preferably the 150 day ma's start to rise again). That one rule has saved me a lot of £ over the years.
BTK looks vulnerable, so I might short GILD today.

[shaunattwood]

Hi Mongoose,
Yesterday's powerful rally lifted the averages back above their 150 day ma's. If DOW rises above 1800 and SPX above 2120, then the bullish case comes back into play. We're seeing a lot of whipsaw signals right now, so still not ideal to go long unless the 150 day ma's start motoring up again.

[isatrader]

Attached is the updated US equity index charts.

US Stock Indexes

       

           

[pcabc]

Market Breadth.

Dow Jones Industrial's, NASDAQ and AMEX:
           

My calculated charts for the FTSE100 & FTSE250 (MIDD.L) versus FTSE350 market breadth.
       

I'm uncertain which way this is going. Though there has been a resurgence in strength only the technology sector (and tech heavy Nasdaq 100) and perhaps US consumer disretionary seem to be making new highs.

[JimStudent]

Market Breadth.

I'm uncertain which way this is going. Though there has been a resurgence in strength only the technology sector (and tech heavy Nasdaq 100) and perhaps US consumer disretionary seem to be making new highs.

Interesting your momentum index is headed south. Also, if you look at the individual sectors, approximately 90% of the sectors are in stage 3 or 4. Or another way of saying that is only approximately 10% of the sectors are healthy in stage 1 or 2. If that doesn't turn around soon the market is headed south. (IMO)

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Also if you look at market tops for $SPX. (aprox)
1/1/2000 the market opened at 1441 and closed the year at 1320

1/1/2007 market opened at 1409 and closed the year at 1401

Both market tops lasted about 1 year and the market headed south

1/1/2015 the market opened at 2058 and we are at 2091 today - looks similar to previous two market tops.

[JimStudent]

Interesting chart from stockcharts, "Only Price Pays -Timing Is Everything - Index, Stock & ETF Trade Setups"

Shows the diversion between rising index and declining participation. (first time posting image hope it works)

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Interesting chart from stockcharts, "Only Price Pays -Timing Is Everything - Index, Stock & ETF Trade Setups"

Shows the diversion between rising index and declining participation. (first time posting image hope it works)

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Interesting chart from stockcharts, "Only Price Pays -Timing Is Everything - Index, Stock & ETF Trade Setups"

Shows the diversion between rising index and declining participation.

[/quote]

The top chart is a downward trend of stocks over their 200 day MA and the bottom chart is the upward price trend of the SPX with the recent breakdown. Market participation is weakening foreshadowing a down turn unless trend is reversed.