(2014-08-06, 11:05 PM)Tryst Wrote: In relation to the price of the corresponding index, I am not sure what constitutes the percentage values as saying that the breadth is bad in relation to the index price.
I'm not sure I understand the question properly. The charts I posted show the three index charts and below each is the percentage of stocks above their 20 day moving averages, the percentage of stocks above their 50 day moving averages and percentage of stocks above their 150 day moving averages that correspond to the index. These all have a scale of 0 to 100.
So for example if you look at the Nasdaq chart you'll see that:
Nasdaq Percentage of stocks above their 20 day moving averages = 27.52%
Nasdaq Percentage of stocks above their 50 day moving averages = 31.32%
Nasdaq Percentage of stocks above their 150 day moving averages = 36.02%
So this would be considered bad imo as less than half of the stocks in the Nasdaq market are above their short and medium term moving averages, yet the index itself is still near to it's highs. i.e. that means it's being held up by only a third of the stocks which means there's increased risk if some of those stocks start to falter.
But on the flip side, as you can see from previous corrections during the Stage 2 advance, if this is only a correction in a continuing Stage 2 advance then in the short term at least we are at or close to levels that have seen previous short term bottoms. But if it turns out to be a more serious correction then it will stay at and below these levels for a while, which is the concern due to the medium term percentages declining also.
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
Attached is the updated Advance Decline Breadth Charts, including the cumulative AD line, momentum index, cumulative AD volume line, 10 Day AD oscillator and the McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index.
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
I showed the Percentage of Stocks above their 20, 50 and 150 day MA line charts in the S&P 500, NYSE and Nasdaq in the free section of the board earlier in the week, and think that they are a good addition to the weekly market breadth update, as they give a good indication of shorter term extremes and reversal points.
As I said earlier in the week, all of the short term indicators (Percentage of Stocks above their 20 day and 50 day MA) had reached the lower zone. This is where you need to watch for a reversal back above the key 30% level, in order to identify the signs of a short term low. Today (Friday) we saw this with most rebounding back above the 30% level, and so it looks as if a short term low may have been established, but it will need to see some follow through at the start of next week for more confirmation.
So imo, the internals continue to suggest that we are in Stage 3, but the index charts are still in Stage 2. And as you know, Stage 3 is a volatile, sideways market phase, and so it will have strong moves in both directions, which could lead to the market going either way i.e. a Stage 2 continuation breakout or a Stage 4 breakdown. So for investor method followers it's a time to be defensive, but for traders there could be opportunities on both sides of the market. Interesting times...
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
