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Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis - Page 467

RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis

S&P500 versus Russell 3000

Breadth is unquestionally bearish.  Price [1] is showing a classic Stage 4 downtrend.  New highs - New lows are -ve [3] and the cummulative version of this is headed downward below its MA [4]/  The Weinstein and 1% A/D momentum lines have been negative for a while and headed downward [5 & 6].  % stocks over the 50 day EMA is below 30% on a downtrend [13] and the % above the 200 day EMA is at 30% again on a downtrend.  Silver and Gold Cross Indicies similar [14 & 15].  My personal aggregate  scores for medium and long term are as low as they can go [A & B].  I'd consider any short very short term trends as just noise at present.  To my eyes there is no indication of any strengthening.



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RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis

Gold versus Gold Miners

I suspect gold is pulling out of a pullback (I opened a position earlier this week).  However, the breadth of the miners is very weak, which ties in with me hitting my stop loss on a gold miners ETF recently.  I should not have bought it.
     

(This post was last modified: 2022-05-22, 01:24 PM by pcabc.)

RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis

Oil & Gas producers

We've had this pennant shape on the oil price for a while [1], it appears to be reluctantly breaking out on the positive side with recent higher highs and low, but not spectacularly.  Not that such a breakout is a good thing in a wider context.

There has been a pullback on the % stocks above their 20 and 50 day EMAs [11 & 12] and the Silver Cross Index [14] bit this has not been seen so much in the % stocks above the 200 day EMA [13] and Gold Cross Index [15].  Weinstein Momentum [5] is crossing up through the zero line and 1% A/D is a little above it, though the direction is unclear [6].

My aggregate long term score [B, grey] has not moved much during this pennant pattern, but the medium term score has [B, green] but has not gone significantly negative.  My supposition is that the oil and gas producers are still going to move upwards, but that is only supposition.
   

RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis

Bitcoin v crypto

Bitcoin [1] seems to be hovering around 30000 - sometimes a little lower, sometimes a little higher.  Compared against a basket of cryptos breadth is horrid. If I imagine quite hard perhaps the price [1] and the A/D volume line [2] are matching, unlike the A/D line [2, red] which is diverging negatively.  But that is the only vaguely positive sign I could tease out, overall very bearish.
   

Weekend Posts in the Blog

Links to this weekends blog posts:

Stage Analysis Members Weekend Video – 22 May 2022 (1hr 18mins)

       



Major Indexes Shakeout at the Lows in Stage 4 and the US Stocks Watchlist – 22 May 2022

   

Market Breadth: Percentage of Stocks Above their 50 Day, 150 Day & 200 Day Moving Averages Combined

   

US Stocks Industry Groups Relative Strength Rankings

       

isatrader

Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.

RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis

I've noticed a few strong upward moves looking toward coming out of pullbacks in US energy stocks today. However, not seen any with favorable volume.

RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis

US Utilities

Some strengthening in utilities.  It looks like there is a long term rising trend superimposed with a 4 month cycle of peaks and troughs overlaid.
   

RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis

Energy sector still generally strong

The only dissenting indicators seem to be the Silver Cross Index and the % stocks over the 200 day EMA.  The A/D line might diverge if the index drops back suddenly, but if it carried on upwards that gives the A/D line time to make a matching new high.
   



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