Nasdaq and NYSE Bullish Percent Index - 1 hour chart
Nasdaq and NYSE Bullish Percent Index - 1 hour chart
The Bullish Percent is a long term breadth measure when used with the classic 2% box size on the point & figure chart. But it can also be used for short term signal by using the hourly chart & basic Stage Analysis principles.
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
RE: 20 year Nasdaq percentage of stocks above their 200 day MA, 150 day MA and 50 day MA
(2022-01-20, 12:15 PM)isatrader Wrote: 20 year Nasdaq Composite chart with percentage of stocks above their 200 day MA, 150 day MA and 50 day MA underneath for comparison to past periods
Highlighted areas are when 200 day MA was below 30% level. Red line is current level in each.
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Hmm. Not too sure what to conclude. Unless it is 2008 it seems that we are in a pullback but in a few months it will be higher. But if it is early 2008 then if you hold on there is a much bigger drop to come. However, looking at the red lines versus the %ages in the shaded areas, t, those percentages have a fair way to drop. On that basis the pullback will continue for a while?
RE: 20 year Nasdaq percentage of stocks above their 200 day MA, 150 day MA and 50 day MA
(2022-01-20, 10:23 PM)pcabc Wrote: Hmm. Not too sure what to conclude. Unless it is 2008 it seems that we are in a pullback but in a few months it will be higher. But if it is early 2008 then if you hold on there is a much bigger drop to come. However, looking at the red lines versus the %ages in the shaded areas, t, those percentages have a fair way to drop. On that basis the pullback will continue for a while?
Does this sound reasonable?
I think the last two year period in the breadth resembles the 2003/2004 and 2009/2010 periods. So I'm judging it compared to the 2004 and 2010 data. Hence we are currently lower than 2010 correction in the 200 day MA, but still above the 2004 level. So my working theory is that we are near to a swing low, but could get a lot more painful yet, that then could give us a modest run for 6 months or so.
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
(This post was last modified: 2022-01-20, 10:47 PM by pcabc.)
RE: 20 year Nasdaq percentage of stocks above their 200 day MA, 150 day MA and 50 day MA
(2022-01-20, 10:36 PM)isatrader Wrote: I think the last two year period in the breadth resembles the 2003/2004 and 2009/2010 periods. So I'm judging it compared to the 2004 and 2010 data. Hence we are currently lower than 2010 correction in the 200 day MA, but still above the 2004 level. So my working theory is that we are near to a swing low, but could get a lot more painful yet, that then could give us a modest run for 6 months or so.
It would be very good if you are right, here's hoping. My more agressive approach to breadth has kept me out of equities for quite a while. Pivoting to bond ETFs in that account whist I'm waiting for breadth to improve has done me no favors though.
Also worth adding, its a shame that the last 10 minutes of Googling has not found a simple CSV or text format list of NASDAQ composite components - so its hard for my to run my breadth calcs on that. Breadth of the other index components is does not exactly follow the NASDAQ composite at the moment, the picture is a bit rosier.
RE: 20 year Nasdaq percentage of stocks above their 200 day MA, 150 day MA and 50 day MA
(2022-01-20, 10:45 PM)pcabc Wrote: It would be very good if you are right, here's hoping. My more agressive approach to breadth has kept me out of equities for quite a while. Pivoting to bond ETFs in that account whist I'm waiting for breadth to improve has done me no favors though.
Also worth adding, its a shame that the last 10 minutes of Googling has not found a simple CSV or text format list of NASDAQ composite components - so its hard for my to run my breadth calcs on that. Breadth of the other index components is does not exactly follow the NASDAQ composite at the moment, the picture is a bit rosier.
Here's the nasdaq components. I excluded etfs and trusts to try and make it just common stocks
Percentage of stocks above their 20 day EMA in Nasdaq Composite, NYSE, S&P 500 and Small Caps
All areas of the market are now into the lower zone. So on watch for reversals back through the 30% level, which is the breadth signal for these short term M&A breadth charts
#stocks
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
