RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis
S&P500 versus Russell 3000 Market Breadth
We seem to be in a small pullback - does not show so well on this 2 year chart.
1. Price at all time highs.
2. Advance / decline is just (not clear on this plot) higher than the previous high of earlier in the year, advancing / declining volume is definitely higher.
3 & 4. New highs minus new lows are at about zero (actually slightly below), however, the cummulative line remains above its 100 day SMA.
5 & 6. The Weinstein Momentum and similar 1% Advance / Decline remain positive, both falling with the former approaching the zero line. The latter has more breadthing room.
7 - 10. The McClellan oscillator and Summation indicies and volume counterparts are falling and below or near below zero.
11 - 13. The % stocks above their 20, 50 and 200 day EMAs are all falling, more significantly on the shorter time frame.
14. The Silver Cross Index has just rolled over around the 70% mark.
15. The Gold Cross Index has shown an increase over the last six weeks.
Overall, despite the all time highs in the S&P500 breadth is pulling back somewhat.
RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis
UK breadth
I've posted four charts for the FTSE100, FTSE250, AIM100 and TechMark. The breadth data I've calculated is the same for all, so no need to discuss that for more than one. However, worth comparing the indicies as the FTSE100 loos like it is in the Stage2a pullback whereas the AIM100 and TechMark others look very toppy with the 250 being somewhere in the middle.
Key points on the breadth:
2. A/D and A/D volume are not strong, the latter possibly diverging, failing to make new highs.
3. New Highs minus New Lows is still positive but not as strong as a couple of months back.
5 & 6. Weinsein Momentum and 1% A/D positive but falling.
7 - 10. All bearish.
11 - 13. The % stocks above the 20, 50 and 200 day EMAs have all dropped, all still above 50%.
14 & 15. Silver and Gold Cross Indicies are all > 50%. Though the data appear to be a bit glitchy.
Percentage of Stocks Above their 50 Day, 150 Day & 200 Day Moving Averages Combined
US Total % Stocks Above their 50 Day, 150 Day & 200 Day Moving Averages Combined
38.17% (-8.74% 1wk)
A further big decline this week in the combined percentage of stocks, with it closing the week back at the September lows and below 40%, and hence in Stage 4 territory, with more stocks below their short, medium and long term moving averages.
I also wanted to highlight the data table this week, as I think it really shows how the statuses work between the Postive and Difficult Environment. So for example I've highlighted the Positive Environment Status, which was from 14th Oct to 16th Nov. That was the time to play Offense as I talked about at the time, and then from 19th Nov it moved back to a Difficult Environment with it dropping below both it's 20 & 50 day MAs, which meant it was the time to play Defense. So it's a really simple concept, but as we've seen over the last few months, it can really help to manage risk, by knowing what team to put on field, their position on it, and when to be more aggressive or when to be more cautious.
Status: Difficult Environment
The Point and Figure Chart had a double bottom breakdown with Fridays close and moves back to Bear Confirmed status using the P&F Statuses in a dangerous field position.
20 and 50 day Oscillator
These show the distance that the combined chart is from the 20 day MA and 50 day MA on the chart. Above the zero is positive environment and below is a difficult / negative environment
Nasdaq Total % Stocks Above their 50 Day, 150 Day & 200 Day Moving Averages Combined
30.80% (-7.37% 1wk)
NYSE Total % Stocks Above their 50 Day, 150 Day & 200 Day Moving Averages Combined
45.54% (-10.11% 1wk)
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
104 Dow Jones Industry Groups sorted by Relative Strength
The purpose of the RS tables is to track the short, medium and long term RS changes of the individual groups to find the new leadership earlier than the crowd.
100 is strongest, 0 is weakest
You can find out which stocks are in each industry group by going to https://stockcharts.com/freech... and clicking on the name of the group
1 week, 2 week, 4 week and 12 week RS changes
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
+193 double top stock breakouts
-1061 double bottom stock breakdowns
-868 net breakouts - breakdowns
Cumulative line is now below both the 20 day MA and 50 day MA with a big net decline this week of over -1000. Friday was the highest number of stock breakdowns since July 19th, but note that was a swing low, and often the biggest up or down days in this occur at or near a pivot.
Status: Difficult Environment
Cumulative Point & Figure Breakouts - Breakdowns Distance Above / Below its 20 day MA
Cumulative Point & Figure Breakouts - Breakdowns MA Momentum Oscillators
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
The stocks above their +1x ATR has moved into the target zone below 10% and stocks below their -1xATR is approaching the target zone (above 50%). So on pivot alert.
I thought I'd include the data table today also, as gives another perspective to the data. I colour code to help. So when both columns are green I'm watching for swing low signs and when both columns are red I'm watching for swing high / topping action.
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
