[pcabc]

Note: Looking at the recent past on these monthly charts. I'm seeing a similar pattern to early 2012 in this years price action and the moving average breadth indicators levels so far

I presume you mean the top at the beginning of April 2012 followed by the dip and recovery?

Yep, the breadth was in a similar position to now, and markets had made a new high after a sharp recovery from the 2011 Stage 4 breakdown, and then pulled back strongly for a few months after the high, before making a higher low, and going on the make an ascending 3T volatility contraction pattern to the end of the year, before moving higher in earnest. I appreciate there are many differences, I just thought it was worth noting the similarities, as the entire twitter stream I follow is extremely bearish right now. But although the weight of evidence from the various breadth indicators is bearish currently too, it's nowhere near as extreme as the sentiment out there, and remains in the Stage 1 / 3 neutral range with 51.80% above their 150 day moving average in the S&P 500 for example, and only fairly recent sell signals in the advance decline line etc. So it could go either way here still imo from my interpretation of the breadth readings.

I follow what you are saying, but I can't really see it myself.  You do have experience and track record on your side of course.  Looking at my breadth scoring system, for what it is worth, it dipped much lower in the recent dip than during the 2011 breakdown.  Of course, a repeat would be nice, especially for the long bull market that followed.

       

[pcabc]

Look at the difference in new-highs minus new-lows, for a clear difference.

[isatrader]

Look at the difference in new-highs minus new-lows, for a clear difference.

I think they show quite a similar pattern too imo. Both had a big flush of new lows during the Stage 4s in both, and then at the end of May in both time periods during the pullback the new lows were much smaller in both.

   

Here's the NYSE Cumulative Advance Decline Lines just for comparison too. Which is fairly different to the 2012 chart.

   

[pcabc]

Look at the difference in new-highs minus new-lows, for a clear difference.

I think they show quite a similar pattern too imo. Both had a big flush of new lows during the Stage 4s in both, and then at the end of May in both time periods during the pullback the new lows were much smaller in both.



Here's the NYSE Cumulative Advance Decline Lines just for comparison too. Which is fairly different to the 2012 chart.

Interesting, I see your point, it may just be a matter of scaling in my plots and also their scaling versus yours.  Anyway, if you turn out to be correct then that would be good for us all.

[isatrader]

Interesting, I see your point, it may just be a matter of scaling in my plots and also their scaling versus yours.  Anyway, if you turn out to be correct then that would be good for us all.

Yep, let's hope so, although there could be significant pain to come first as people continue to panic over the news headlines. Which seems to be Trade War currently. In 2012, it was the Greece bailout and potential collapse of Europe if I remember correctly. There's always something for the media to pump.

[pcabc]

Interesting, I see your point, it may just be a matter of scaling in my plots and also their scaling versus yours.  Anyway, if you turn out to be correct then that would be good for us all.

Yep, let's hope so, although there could be significant pain to come first as people continue to panic over the news headlines. Which seems to be Trade War currently. In 2012, it was the Greece bailout and potential collapse of Europe if I remember correctly. There's always something for the media to pump.

Well, without getting political, we have Brexit / Post Brexit which will be controversial whatever happens, the US election which again will be controversial no matter who wins, will Italy do something of significance for the Euro and whatever the Chinese economy does.  I can't see us running out of news for a while...

[isatrader]

Below is the Percent of Stocks Above their 150 Day Moving Average table in each sector, which is ordered by overall health. Also attached is the visual diagram of the 9 sectors and the two major exchanges that make up the sectors that shows a snapshot of the overall health of the US market.

Note: the overall sector average is at 44.17% currently and declined -6.36% since last week, with only Basic Materials rising, and Financials having the largest decline.

       

[pcabc]

Market breadth

US:
There has been an improvement in both my short term momentum and longer term breadth scores.
           



UK:
Although the same could be said for my breadth scores the price and its moving averages are a lot weaker.
           


Oil & Gold Producers:
Oil is simply looking bearish.  Gold short miners term momentum wise are stong but my overal breadth score is negative but improving.  The price has made a higher low, seeing what happens at 130 on GLD will be interesting.