Major US Stock Indexes Update - NYSE, Nasdaq, S&P 500, DJIA & S&P 600 small caps
Here's the weekly overview charts of the NYSE, Nasdaq, S&P 500, DJIA & S&P 600 small caps with their US Bullish Percent and Moving Average Breadth.
Note: This week saw four of the five major indexes that I show close back above their 30 week MAs, and significantly above initial resistance zones from their previous Stage 4 breakdown levels. Combined with continued strengthening breadth, for example, the NYSE Percentage of Stocks above their 150 day MAs is now at 58.24%, and the Nasdaq Composite Percentage of Stocks above their 150 day MAs is now at 48.11%, and the Bullish Percents for them both above 50% and on bullish signals, which only happen every few years or so, as they are long term breadth measures
So this week sees a Stage rating change for the US market from Stage 4 to Stage 1A imo. Which is defined in the Global Trend Alert as Stage 1A - Start of a base. Needs much more time.
This doesn't mean we are necessarily going to see Stage 2 anytime soon in the market indexes, although a lot new leaders in individual stocks are already in Stage 2 and making new highs. But it is literally the very beginning of Stage 1. So we could see a move lower again in the major indexes, a continued move higher, or volatility in both directions for many months, or many different scenarios. Nobody knows. So don't believe them if they tell you they do.
All we can do is follow the clues from the charts and the market breadth Weight of Evidence and trade accordingly based on the risk it shows of the path of least resistance. Which at the moment is some cautious optimism imo, but I'd expect to see some volatility come back soon. So focus on the strongest stocks in the strongest sectors if looking long and weakest stocks in the weakest sectors if looking to short imo. As the early Stage 1 phase presents many opportunities both long and short, and so is a good time for shorter term traders, but is too soon for investors in most cases.
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
Attached is the updated NYSE and Nasdaq Advance Decline Breadth Charts, including the cumulative AD line, momentum index, cumulative AD volume line, 10 Day AD oscillator and the McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index.
Attached is the updated US New Highs - New Lows Charts
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
US Sectors - Percent of Stocks Above their 150 Day Moving Average
Below is the Percent of Stocks Above their 150 Day Moving Average table in each sector, which is ordered by overall health. Also attached is the visual diagram of the 9 sectors and the two major exchanges that make up the sectors that shows a snapshot of the overall health of the US market.
Note: the overall sector average is at 53.49% currently and gained +10.52% since last week, with industrials, technology, energy and consumer discretionary having the largest gains. Utilities still has the highest percent of stocks above their 150 Day Moving Averages, but Technology continues to strengthen and has now moved back above the key 60% level, with 65.53% of technology stocks now above their 150 Day Moving Averages. So on a breadth basis alone, the tech sector is back in Stage 2 territory, although the tech sector index chart is only in Stage 1A still. But that is likely due to how the index chart is made up, as it's weighted towards bigger stocks like AAPL, which is underperforming the sector massively. But these Percent of Stocks Above their 150 Day Moving Average are all given an equal weighting, as the only thing that matters is if the stock is above the 150 day MA or not.
So for the market to get back to Stage 2 overall we need to see the Defensive sectors moving down the table and being overtaken by the Cyclical stock sectors. So in a healthy Stage 2 market Consumer Staples and Utilities would be at the bottom of the table. With Technology,Consumer Discretionary, Financials etc near the top of the list. So, we are continuing to see improvements in the Cyclical stock sectors, but the Defensive sectors are still in positions 1 and 3 in the table for now.
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
Nasdaq 100 comparison with its equal weighted index. It is clear that the large caps in the index are masking the strength in the tech sector overall. The equal weight index QQEW is less than 2% from all time highs, whereas weighted index QQQ is still 8.7% below the highs.
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
