(This post was last modified: 2018-04-29, 04:19 PM by BarnabeBear.)
RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis
Thanks for your update and the answer to my questions. I figured it was wishful thinking on my end given the amount of work it required, but I did not have in mind the index change-of-composition factor, the cherry on the cake
As for July 2015, your survey was spot on a little bit before the drop. Here the difference is that the drop in Feb was very sudden and has already taken place so the slope of curves are very steep, and the survey did not serve as a warning indicator. Same to be said about the ADLine(s): no early warning signs from them on this one. But generally speaking what you find by studying the charts since before 1929 is that the early signs are really only visible from the ADLine for major market movements (ie >20%), whereas the up-to-20% corrections are real hard to catch.
Anyways thanks again for your survey. And see you around, I'll definitely be following you !
ps: I've made a youtube video of my weekly chart book to share the indicators I like to look at to assess the market's pulse.
It flips through the pages and has a table of contents to help navigate through it.
It also includes homemade CAC40 and Shangai Composite ADLine and NH/NL charts
Don't know if that's of interest to you but here it is anyway
Let's say you have $ sitting in your brokerage account that you want to invest. While you're waiting on the opportune time to invest in a security with a good chart, where do you position that $? Just leave it sit making little to no interest or put it in a fund of some kind?
(This post was last modified: 2018-04-30, 04:58 PM by grbaNT.)
RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis
(2018-04-29, 04:00 PM)BarnabeBear Wrote: Thanks for your update and the answer to my questions. I figured it was wishful thinking on my end given the amount of work it required, but I did not have in mind the index change-of-composition factor, the cherry on the cake
As for July 2015, your survey was spot on a little bit before the drop. Here the difference is that the drop in Feb was very sudden and has already taken place so the slope of curves are very steep, and the survey did not serve as a warning indicator. Same to be said about the ADLine(s): no early warning signs from them on this one. But generally speaking what you find by studying the charts since before 1929 is that the early signs are really only visible from the ADLine for major market movements (ie >20%), whereas the up-to-20% corrections are real hard to catch.
Anyways thanks again for your survey. And see you around, I'll definitely be following you !
ps: I've made a youtube video of my weekly chart book to share the indicators I like to look at to assess the market's pulse.
It flips through the pages and has a table of contents to help navigate through it.
It also includes homemade CAC40 and Shangai Composite ADLine and NH/NL charts
Don't know if that's of interest to you but here it is anyway
You got some really interesting charts in your chart book. Great work!!!
I would not agree that there was no warning sign from the Survey in case of the February drop. Firstly, indices were insanely overbought in late January and at the start of February, and the Survey was in the overbought area for 6 weeks in a row. Week ending on February 2 saw SPX dropping 3.9% and the Survey dropping 7.52%. That is a big, and I mean really big move for the Survey, beyond 2 standard deviations of the entire data set (check the attached weekly moves histogram, that move is in blue). The week after February 2 we got an even deeper down move both on indices and the Survey. I would say that there was a warning sign in the Survey. And yes, you are right when you say that market breadth indicators are the most useful for spotting major turns.
Thanks for the comment on my chart book Still in the process of refining it.
Too bad I had not done it before February, it could have been of some help.
On the foretelling signs, I was more thinking about a divergence between the indice and the ADLine, which has always been here well in advance of a major downturn. (on top of a overevaluation through the P/E which can however last very long and is thus not a timing indicator)
That's why I tend to think that what we are seing is a correction (which could go down to -20%).
As for the week of the 2nd, you're right, but the correction had already started this week. So not really useful if we want to avoid being 'corrected'.
Attached is the monthly US stock indexes charts, for a look at the bigger picture again now that April is over.
Small caps remain the strongest of the indexes currently with price only 3% from the highs, with all the other indexes managing to recover during a volatile April to finish slightly positive for the month.
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
Hav you tried working out his Eleven and Last hours indicators?
I mean this is relatively easy to plot on PRT (see below), but I don't quite know what to make of it. In Technically Speaking SW mentions that the Eleven gives a long term direction whereas the last hour may be more intermediate term, and that the best is when they walk together.
Ok, but looking back as far as PRT allows (2008 on a one-hour basis), the interest for these indicators is not super obvious.
So, have you tried your luck with those?
ps: the PRT code I use is the following
*******************
//SW's Eleven and Last Hour indicators, as per Technically Speaking
//V 1.0 by BarnabeBear
//US Indices set to New York time in PRT
// Parameters
m=7.5 // 7.5 multiplier to be able to plot the indicators on the same chart as the price - set to 1 to keep it real
//Initial variable initialization to close
Once cum12 = close
Once cum17 = close
//Catch 11am to noon price move
if Hour = 12 then
C=(close-close[1])*m
else
C=0
endif
//Catch 4pm to 5pm move
if Hour = 17 then
D=(close-close[1])*m
Closing = close // Closing = Day close at 5pm, to be able to compare indicators with price
else
D=0
endif
//Cumulative lines for Eleven and Last hour indicators
cum12 = cum12 +C
cum17 = cum17+D
return cum12 coloured (0,0,255) as "Eleven Hour", cum17 coloured (255,0,0) as "Last Hour", closing as "Daily Closing"
*****************************
Major US Stock Indexes Update - NYSE, Nasdaq, S&P 500, DJIA & S&P 600 small caps
Here's the overview charts of the US Bullish Percent and Moving Average Breadth.
Note: The market tried again to push lower this week, but was once more rejected with all indexes recovering most of the weeks losses, and the Nasdaq and Small Caps even closed higher on the week.
There are some short term levels to watch with the April High and Low defining the levels in the indexes.
As always, stay nimble, focus on the quality of setups and manage risk carefully during this Stage 3 period that we remain in, in the US markets.
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
