Attached is the updated Advance Decline Breadth Charts, including the cumulative AD line, momentum index, cumulative AD volume line, 10 Day AD oscillator and the McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index.
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
(2018-03-24, 10:08 AM)isatrader Wrote: Attached is the Individual sector breadth charts
It is interesting that the financial sector, which I have seen touted as an indication of overall market health, has been stronger than the utilities sector, which is seen as a relatively safe haven. This seems a little odd.
(2018-03-24, 11:52 AM)pcabc Wrote: It is interesting that the financial sector, which I have seen touted as an indication of overall market health, has been stronger than the utilities sector, which is seen as a relatively safe haven. This seems a little odd.
I may be wrong, but I think the utilities is usually one of the first sectors to decline when the market is in Stage 3. But then is one of the earliest sectors to recover when the market goes into a stage 4 decline. As people start to look for less volatile stocks with dividends. Then when the market starts to stabilise in stage 1 again, the more volatile stocks start to rebound again.
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
I've posted most of the main breadth charts that I look at to get a sense of the Weight of Evidence in the US market currently. Here's an overview of what I'm seeing in the breadth charts.
NYSE Bullish Percent: 52.76% - Bear Correction Status
NYSE Percentage of stocks above their 200 day MAs: 43.44% - Bear Confirmed status
NYSE Percentage of stocks above their 150 day MAs: 36.38% - Bear Confirmed status
NYSE Percentage of stocks above their 50 day MAs: 22.12% - Bear Confirmed status (oversold range)
NYSE Momentum Index: Testing the breakdown level.
NYSE Advance Decline Cumulative: Below a now declining 50 week MA. Made lower high recently. Not yet below February low though.
NYSE Advance Decline Cumulative 10 and 30 week EMAs: Negative crossover following lower high. Bearish.
NYSE Advance Decline 10 Day MA Oscillator: Approaching February low levels. Oversold zone in short term.
US New Highs - New Lows (5 day average): Below zero line again, and making new low, but still well above February low currently. So although negative, could also be a positive divergence if it doesn't get much worse, and price action rebounds at the test of the February lows.
US New Highs - New Lows Cumulative: Price just crossing below the 50 week MA for the first time since uptrend begain in 2016. And 50 day MA momentum breaking down below 2016 swing low. Approaching zero line.
Opinion:
So overall the Weight of Evidence is broadly quite negative currently imo, with multiple indicators on sell signals, although there are some that are still quite neutral, and some of the short term indicators are approaching oversold levels. So even though it's quite negative there could be a rebound as the markets test the February lows and hit their 200 day MAs this week. So it will be interesting to see what level of buying interest there is at that point, as if there isn't a strong rebound like in February, then there's a chance that the US markets could rapidly fall into a Stage 4A breakdown attempt.
Remember, this is just my opinion, so don't take it as trading advice.
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
I like what you are doing on your blog, it's really good stuff. Feel free to post on here too, as it would benefit everyone using the method to have the additional breadth data. As that is why I originally set this site up as a forum instead of just a blog for me, as I wanted to bring together everyone trading Stans method, and make it easy to discuss it and learn from each other and post stocks ideas that meet the methods criteria.
So I hope you'll consider posting on here too as well as your blog.
Hi istrader,
I'm working on the update. Huge number of stocks broke major support and LT moving averages entering S3 or S4, which means more work for me as the code identifies stable S2s and S4s while stocks undergoing transition are left for me to classify.
Will post the charts and my commentary here tomorrow. I will do this every weekend so that all members could benefit.
BTW, it does not look good
