RE: US Stocks - Watchlist and Discussion (Premium)
(2015-08-17, 05:54 AM)gbarbs Wrote: Jim - I have been considering shorting gold. The individual charts in the sector are almost all below their declining 30 week MA and many have just broken below support. In my opinion, there's a decent case to short it. I have seen people rush to gold as a safe haven but if you are going by stage analysis and the charts it looks to me like the sector is headed lower.
Hasn't gold dropped too far to consider shorting, just as you should not buy late into a stage 2 for a long surely this is buying late into a stage 4 for a short?
RE: US Stocks - Watchlist and Discussion (Premium)
It looks like a continuation move to me after an extended consolidation. I wish I had the graphic from the very beginning of the book that shows more bullish / less bullish and more bearish / less bearish. This has been in a range for over 2 yrs moving gently downward but also has a support trendline that is closer to being horizontal. So the breakdown looks like the "more bearish" chart to me.
Note that I have not shorted it yet - I need to look at other metals charts to see if the majority appear bearish. And need a closer buy stop. The closest possibility I see is about 10% away and that's too much for me trading right now.
It may or may not be an ideal short but certainly not a buy here for me. I think I would be trying to guess a bottom.
RE: US Stocks - Watchlist and Discussion (Premium)
(2015-08-18, 07:53 PM)gbarbs Wrote: It may or may not be an ideal short but certainly not a buy here for me. I think I would be trying to guess a bottom.
It may not be a bottom yet but Junior goal-mining companies are down 85% as a group in less than five years. I am sure they can go down more but I would think the opportunity to sell short has passed.
(This post was last modified: 2015-08-19, 07:56 AM by pcabc.)
RE: US Stocks - Watchlist and Discussion (Premium)
(2015-08-19, 06:26 AM)JimStudent Wrote:
(2015-08-18, 07:53 PM)gbarbs Wrote: It may or may not be an ideal short but certainly not a buy here for me. I think I would be trying to guess a bottom.
It may not be a bottom yet but Junior goal-mining companies are down 85% as a group in less than five years. I am sure they can go down more but I would think the opportunity to sell short has passed.
I've put a number of gold miners in my screener and I calculate breadth for this group. I'm not sure whether this is a valid for a sector and frankly a small group of stocks chosen fairly arbitrarily. Breadth chart below. I'm not sure whether it is a good shorting option or not. However, it does look like it is not going up anytime soon.
