[Amedee]

Another one for the watchlist: XLRN
I was going through some stock queries on the P&F site of Tom Dorsey and came along XLRN (sector Drugs).
The filter was set for favored sectors + large base stocks + price $10 - $500 + weekly momentum between 0 and 3 weeks positive (on average, weekly momentum lasts positive or negative during 7 weeks).
+ Favored sector
+ RS trend positive
+ Weekly momentum 3 weeks positive
- Monthly momentum 6 months positive
+ The Reward to risk is 2.37 to 8, depending on the calculation (I love to have the RR above 3).
+ Initial risk to stop loss is 10%
+ P&F Triple top breakout
+ Stage 2a or 2b?
Any other thoughts?

Some charts see this padlet: http://padlet.com/Amedee/5214bepuenhb

XLRN technically made an early Stage 2A breakout attempt back in December, but it didn't meet all of the breakout requirements. Note the weak close on the weekly bar of the breakout attempt week, which needs to be in the upper third of the bar at the close of the week for a confirmed Stage 2A breakout imo, as a strong weekly close is required.

Isatrader, I don't see the weak volume...
In the following chart I highlighted the volume in green. Average volume is 1.3325.622 and it reached that week more then 4.000.000. It looks like that was the breakout attempt, no?
   
Where do you see the weak close on the weekly bar? Could you point it out on the chart?

XLRN made a high today of $42.64! Getting close...
Unfortunately, I can't take any more positions because I am fully invested for the moment (8 stocks). Perhaps I should buy some calls on XLRN if they are not to expensive...
   

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For the US long watchlist tonight - HOMB, TWOU, CISG, CY, MYRG, SUPN, TRVN, WUBA, AST

Lot's of opportunities in my opinion...
CY - favored sector semiconductors - RR = 5 (and 9 weeks of negative weekly momentum > breakout near?!). I have a position in this one and hope to add when it will pull back after the breakout...
SUPN - favored sector Drugs - RR = 1.2
TRVN - favored sector Biomedics - RR = 6.2
TWOU - favored sector Software - RR = 5.2
WUBA - Average sector Internet - RR = 2.9

All other tickers are in unfavored sectors...

[isatrader]

Isatrader, I don't see the weak volume...
In the following chart I highlighted the volume in green. Average volume is 1.3325.622 and it reached that week more then 4.000.000. It looks like that was the breakout attempt, no?

I think you misread my post. I didn't say it had weak volume. Just a weak close on the weekly price, as it was in the lower half of it's weeks range, which is not good on a breakout, which must close the week in the upper third of the weeks range ideally.

Also, it was definitely a breakout attempt. But was just missing the price requirement, which is one of the most important imo.

Where do you see the weak close on the weekly bar? Could you point it out on the chart?

See attached with explanation. Hopefully my maths is correct, but roughly closed at 35% of the breakout weeks range. Where ideally you want to see over 60% to consider it a strong weekly close imo. As 35% is almost in the lower third of the weeks range. Whereas you want it to close in the upper third of the weeks range and ideally near the high of the week.

   

[Amedee]

Isatrader, I don't see the weak volume...
In the following chart I highlighted the volume in green. Average volume is 1.3325.622 and it reached that week more then 4.000.000. It looks like that was the breakout attempt, no?

I think you misread my post. I didn't say it had weak volume. Just a weak close on the weekly price, as it was in the lower half of it's weeks range, which is not good on a breakout, which must close the week in the upper third of the weeks range ideally.

Also, it was definitely a breakout attempt. But was just missing the price requirement, which is one of the most important imo.

Where do you see the weak close on the weekly bar? Could you point it out on the chart?

See attached with explanation. Hopefully my maths is correct, but roughly closed at 35% of the breakout weeks range. Where ideally you want to see over 60% to consider it a strong weekly close imo. As 35% is almost in the lower third of the weeks range. Whereas you want it to close in the upper third of the weeks range and ideally near the high of the week.

Yes, I misread your post. Thank you to explain! Now I understand. Does Weinstein writes about that closing price?

[isatrader]

Yes, I misread your post. Thank you to explain! Now I understand. Does Weinstein writes about that closing price?

Yes, a strong weekly closing price is definitely talked about by Weinstein, although I can't remember where exactly as it's come up a number of times. It might be in the Extract from Stan Weinstein's interview in the "Technically Speaking" book which can be downloaded on the original Stage Analysis thread on trade2win here: http://www.trade2win.com/boards/technica...ost2037672 and if not it's a still a good read for people interested in Weinstein's method, as talks about some different stuff than the book.

[Amedee]

Yes, a strong weekly closing price is definitely talked about by Weinstein, although I can't remember where exactly as it's come up a number of times. It might be in the Extract from Stan Weinstein's interview in the "Technically Speaking" book which can be downloaded on the original Stage Analysis thread on trade2win here: http://www.trade2win.com/boards/technica...ost2037672 and if not it's a still a good read for people interested in Weinstein's method, as talks about some different stuff than the book.

Very interesting link. I will read it with a lot of attention!

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Lot's of opportunities in my opinion...
CY - favored sector semiconductors - RR = 5 (and 9 weeks of negative weekly momentum > breakout near?!). I have a position in this one and hope to add when it will pull back after the breakout...

Cy breaking out today (high $16.25) with high weekly volume... Stage 2B continuation buy I assume...
   
   
   

[isatrader]

Cy breaking out today (high $16.25) with high weekly volume... Stage 2B continuation buy I assume...

Stage 2B is when a stock has been in Stage 2 for a long while, and is getting late in the uptrend. This is only the first Stage 2 continuation breakout for CY since it's initial Stage 2A breakout in December, and so it's only just moving into the normal Stage 2 advance phase, and hence could have many more consolidations and Stage 2 continuation breakouts and so wouldn't be considered Stage 2B for a long while yet imo.

See the attached example diagram which gives my estimation on the Stage 2 sub stages. i.e. at least two significant continuation breakouts before it becomes Stage 2B, which is normally at least six months or much more in many cases, as the initial Stage 2A breakout and pullback can take that long in a lot of stocks, which is why short term traders should focus more on early Stage 2 continuation breakouts, as the opportunity costs for them holding onto stocks in early Stage 2A can be too high. Whereas investors are in it for the longer haul and so can afford to be more patient.

   

[isatrader]

Below is a few of the Stage 2A breakout attempts, and stocks close to a possible Stage 2A breakout in the US market highlighted on the Elite Board earlier in the week:

CFRX - Early Stage 2A breakout from cup and handle pattern primary base on more than 3x the average weekly volume and strengthening relative performance.

   


TWOU - Stage 2A breakout from the primary base since the IPO on around 2x the average weekly volume and strong relative performance at new highs.

   


GERN - Stage 2A breakout on 3.6x average weekly volume and strong relative performance.

   


AST - Early Stage 2A breakout attempt from a small primary base on more than 3x the average weekly volume and strong relative performance.

   


SCAI - Stage 2A breakout on 2.82x average weekly volume and Strengthening relative performance above a flattening zero line.

   


TRVN - Stage 1B. Watching for a possible Stage 2A breakout attempt

   


SUPN - New Stage 2A breakout attempt on 1.43x average weekly volume and Relative performance that is improving and moving above the still declining zero line.

   


MVIS - Stage 2A breakout, but still within a large resistance zone on 1.61x average weekly volume and strengthening relative performance above a newly rising zero line.

   


HOMB - New Stage 2A breakout attempt on 1.43x average weekly volume relative performance line that is improving and moving above a still declining zero line.

   


To see all of the daily updates in the Elite Board - register for free here: http://stageanalysis.net/forum/member.ph...n=register and get a one week free trial to the Elite members board.

[isatrader]

A few for the US watchlist from last nights scans, and notably two of which were previously highlighted and are now attempting to make their Stage 2A breakouts.

TRVN (Stage 2A breakout attempt on strong relative volume), CNCE (Stage 2A breakout attempt), TROV (Stage 1B), SIGM, CTSO, SURG