[Lplate]

Gold broke down and closed below crucial support last Friday on heavy volume. A potential stage 4 is in progress. . . .The fly in the ointment maybe the fact that Silver has held support in a similar chart pattern so caution should be exercised with this at the moment in my opinion. I will post this and the daily chart in the trader method thread.

Thanks goodtyneguy. Another fly in the ointment is that a lot of the shorters already on gold and silver are looking at the short-term, so will take profits quite early from the breakdown lines.
PS sorry, I've just seen that isa has made more or less the same point on the Traders Method thread. The investor method I think needs to be convinced that the unpopularity of the precious metals has "set in" for the medium term, a bit like the unpopularity of internet stocks in 2001/2 and bank stocks 2008

[isatrader]

Well, it looks like the precious metals are tanking - Gold down around another -5% and Silver -10%. Margin Calls galore and panic selling. So if you weren't already in from the Gold Stage 4A breakdown months ago then it looks very difficult to chase now. Although I'm sure the day traders will be loving it.

[goodtyneguy]

We are on $1375 as I type, Weinstein did say in SFPIBABM "the bigger the top the bigger the drop". IIRC he said that pull backs to the BD level are less likely than pullbacks to the BO level on long opportunities.

This top played out about 19 months so perhaps the lesson for me here is to place sell stop orders on tops of this magnitude (time) rather than waiting for a close below the BD level?

[Lplate]

I've been short since $1534, but alas not weinsteins method I'm afraid but hedging physical. My ISA account is beginning to look very nice and any potential CGT liability for this year also

Well done, goodtyneguy. It's very smart to catch one of the major moves of 2013.
To put my caution another way, with gold and silver the initial big moves down are emotional panics (as isatrader said), and the big bounces (like Tuesday) as traders take profits seem more suited to the trader method at least. With moves of $70, $80, $100 per day, the stoploss has to be put such a long way away that it feels like a 50-50 gamble day to day.
The question from the investor point of view is to identify that the wider investor, now sitting on a fall of 50% or so from the high, and quite probably now sitting on losses, and enduring an effective "crash" similar to 2001 in tech and 2008 in banks, comes to doubt the case for buying gold. If there is no big move back above 1550 in this week and next, then yes we could get a big grind down over the coming months, with smaller stops, more suited to the Weinstein investor method.
That's how I see it, that moves in gold have to be treated a bit differently from normal stocks.
PS I forgot to say that although Weinstein, as we have discussed it, uses daily and weekly charts, the Friday (US) morning move in gold, down from about 1580 to 1500, shows the value of an intra-day alert to get good entry point.

[isatrader]

Exxon Mobil (XOM) looks to have made a Stage 4A breakdown today, however it's currently testing the recent horizontal support, so needs a close below 84.70 for further confirmation.

Exxon has the second biggest market cap behind Apple, and so is an important stock to monitor imo.

[goodtyneguy]

Here's a one with an excellent R2R imo especially suitable for the deflationists amongst us

   

[Locked in]

JP Morgan Chase (JPM) has formed a head and shoulders top on the daily chart. I am adding it to my watchlist for a potential short even though it is still well above its 150 day MA. To be honest, I have been questioning my relative strength (as it is not mansfield) and I decided today I need to do a little more research and try to add my own code to prorealtime...anyway, with my current settings, it is heading lower vs. spy.

On the volume front, I have noticed that every day in which the volume is higher than average is a negative day. (Only on daily)

I have added the weekly chart as well to show how volatile this stock has been with its crazy range over the years.

Thoughts anyone?

       

[isatrader]

JP Morgan Chase (JPM) has formed a head and shoulders top on the daily chart. I am adding it to my watchlist for a potential short even though it is still well above its 150 day MA. To be honest, I have been questioning my relative strength (as it is not mansfield) and I decided today I need to do a little more research and try to add my own code to prorealtime...anyway, with my current settings, it is heading lower vs. spy.

On the volume front, I have noticed that every day in which the volume is higher than average is a negative day. (Only on daily)

I have added the weekly chart as well to show how volatile this stock has been with its crazy range over the years.

Thoughts anyone?

ProRealTime has the Mansfield RS built in I believe, so you should be able to find in the available indicators to add to your charts.

With regards to JPM I've attached a weekly relative performance chart with a 30 week MA on each to compare against the S&P 500, XLF Sector and the $DJUSBK Bank Sub-Sector that it belongs to. I've also attached the $DJUSBK Bank Sub-Sector chart.

I think a good exercise to do at this point is to make a list of the other banks and then create the same relative performance charts versus the sector and sub sector, so that you can see if JPM is the best shorting candidate of the major US banks. But also very importantly is to do peer to peer relative strength comparisons against the other banks i.e. BAC, C, WFC etc as that will give you a clearer picture as to whether it's a strong stock in it's sector or a weak stock. Another way to do this would be to get the Mansfield RS reading for each stock and create a relative performance table in a spreadsheet ordered by the highest reading as I do each week with the US sectors.

I've had a quick look at the banks sector myself and for example USB and BBT looked to be much weaker technically imo, and so it's definitely worth looking into the sector.

A final note to be aware of, is that Financials has consistently been in the top two for relative performance of the major sectors for the last six months and so is one of the strongest groups overall, but it has been weakening more recently.