[pcabc]

Two gold miners

Interesting, but is the volume good?  Hard ot tell as the events of the past few weeks put in exceptional volume, I wonder if that is hiding the signals we would look for?

ABX.TO and TGZ.TO:
       

[shaunattwood]

ZM pulling back to 120 from recent BO @ 105 on huge volume that saw 165
Who isn't using Zoom now?

[isatrader]

ZM pulling back to 120 from recent BO @ 105 on huge volume that saw 165
Who isn't using Zoom now?

Video chat is definitely a big theme right now. So ZM has potential as one of the new leaders when the market eventually moves back to Stage 2 and has pulled back to a zone of multiple support.

       

The company I work at went with Skype though instead of Zoom, which is owned by Microsoft (MSFT). But ZM is definitely experiencing massive growth in users. So I think the whole sub sector is worth a look and other areas related to needing to work from home. i.e. here's a few others I'm watching along those lines: DOCU, OKTA, MSFT, AMZN, NFLX, WORK, TEAM, ZS, NET

[marry123]

  wein.pdf (Size: 547.63 KB / Downloads: 226) Re: Still no trigger to go long the stock market based on stage analysis.

Hi all,

I have missed the entire recent rally in stocks following Stan's method. If one is disciplined one will wait until the SPX breaks above a rising 30 EMA to start going long stocks. I wonder, would one go long some stocks if they are above a rising 30 ema now even if the SPX is not above a rising 30 EMA? Unless I misunderstood, Stan advised to start buying individual stocks only when the stock market was back above a rising 30 ema weekly.

I have scanned for myself stock market bottom (bull market) charts from Stan's book (attached) to remind me of when to start buying stocks. It does hurt having to wait for the market to break above a rising 30 EMA to start entering stocks when one sees such a huge rally as we saw recently where folks made more money in a week or two than many will make in a few years.

Thanks for your thoughts.

[malaguti]

Re: Still no trigger to go long the stock market based on stage analysis.

Hi all,

I have missed the entire recent rally in stocks following Stan's method. If one is disciplined one will wait until the SPX breaks above a rising 30 EMA to start going long stocks. I wonder, would one go long some stocks if they are above a rising 30 ema now even if the SPX is not above a rising 30 EMA? Unless I misunderstood, Stan advised to start buying individual stocks only when the stock market was back above a rising 30 ema weekly.

I have scanned for myself stock market bottom (bull market) charts from Stan's book (attached) to remind me of when to start buying stocks. It does hurt having to wait for the market to break above a rising 30 EMA to start entering stocks when one sees such a huge rally as we saw recently where folks made more money in a week or two than many will make in a few years.

Thanks for your thoughts.

Its the Simple MA 30, rather than exponential ma. Does it hurt? yes especially given how far we are away from the sma, however if stocks were to start tanking again, we'd be justifying to ourselves how right we were to follow his method.
we haven't really tested the lows yet to be able to say we've had a bottom and therefore I think its far too early to say
the method is rock solid, over countless years its proved itself as being an incredibly effective entry criteria
i'd happily wait, and wait some more to get a proper confirmation that its safe to start pumping money into equities right now
if anything i'd be looking to other markets. however cash is king right now

[marry123]

Re: Still no trigger to go long the stock market based on stage analysis.

Hi all,

I have missed the entire recent rally in stocks following Stan's method. If one is disciplined one will wait until the SPX breaks above a rising 30 EMA to start going long stocks. I wonder, would one go long some stocks if they are above a rising 30 ema now even if the SPX is not above a rising 30 EMA? Unless I misunderstood, Stan advised to start buying individual stocks only when the stock market was back above a rising 30 ema weekly.

I have scanned for myself stock market bottom (bull market) charts from Stan's book (attached) to remind me of when to start buying stocks. It does hurt having to wait for the market to break above a rising 30 EMA to start entering stocks when one sees such a huge rally as we saw recently where folks made more money in a week or two than many will make in a few years.

Thanks for your thoughts.

Its the Simple MA 30, rather than exponential ma. Does it hurt? yes especially given how far we are away from the sma, however if stocks were to start tanking again, we'd be justifying to ourselves how right we were to follow his method.
we haven't really tested the lows yet to be able to say we've had a bottom and therefore I think its far too early to say
the method is rock solid, over countless years its proved itself as being an incredibly effective entry criteria
i'd happily wait, and wait some more to get a proper confirmation that its safe to start pumping money into equities right now
if anything i'd be looking to other markets. however cash is king right now

Thank you Malaguti for pointing out it is the 30 MA weekly not the 30 EMA. I wonder why I thought it was the 30 EMA as looking at Stan's book right now it clearly says "30 MA" on the weekly.
I agree, one needs to continue to wait to see if the stock market breaks above a rising 30 MA weekly regardless of how much of the rally one has missed so far. I am usually a good contrarian indicator as when the market crashed to around 2200 S+P I thought it would keep crashing to at least 1800 and now that we had this big 50% retrace the emotions in me tell me that it will just keep ripping higher as the Fed keeps pumping QE. 


Good to hear you are also waiting for a proper buy signal for the stock market and that I am not the only one who missed the big bounce so far ( I had various stocks on my watchlist a few weeks back that have now bounced roughly 40%-75%).

[isatrader]

I'm in the process of preparing my latest breadth video. But thought due to the discussion here that this 40 year chart of the how the unemployment rates and markets correlate might make you less worried about missing the bounce by following the rules. As as you can see, history tells us the odds of further down side seems high when unemployment is trending up, as 3 out of 4 of the previous periods didn't bottom for over a year. Only 1990 bottomed quickly.

Note: the 1987 crash that everyone is comparing this time too, didn't have any uptick in unemployment. It was purely a stock market crash, not an economic crash.

   

[malaguti]

I'm in the process of preparing my latest breadth video. But thought due to the discussion here that this 40 year chart of the how the unemployment rates and markets correlate might make you less worried about missing the bounce by following the rules. As as you can see, history tells us the odds of further down side seems high when unemployment is trending up, as 3 out of 4 of the previous periods didn't bottom for over a year. Only 1990 bottomed quickly.

Note: the 1987 crash that everyone is comparing this time too, didn't have any uptick in unemployment. It was purely a stock market crash, not an economic crash.

one image shows the entire story, fantastic chart. Thanks ISA