AZ.TO - I've been watching this miner for a while, after playing it's initial continuation breakout at the start of the year. For the last three months it's formed a very tight range, and is once again trading near to a recent swing high. So is one I'm watching very closely for a breakout attempt.
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
I find your scans to be "on point". I love giving creadit to stageanalysis.net on my podcasts, and hope other Stan Weinstein advocates come over here to get them properly started.
They often inspire me to look at new tickers not yet under my radar + they are in line with Stan Weinstein framework
I'm thinking what would be nice is a scanner for pullbacks on low volume, occuring 1-3 months after a bonified breakout is confirmed.
Advantages:
1- Increase position size , skewing risk to reward in your favor risk (closer entry to breakout line, means bigger posisiton size to a limit of 1% potential impact on nav)
2- Reduce chance of landing on a "emotion landmine" by jumping the gun on a "possible" breakout not yet "triply confirmed"
3- Another "healthy" aspect of stage 2 or stage 4 is the initial pullback on contracting volume. If you get in early on breakoutm there is some chance that you might pull back on high volume => warning sign !
4- In other words, avoid potentiel whipsasws with false breakouts
Disadvantages:
1- Miss out on breakouts that never pullback
I don't really mind the disadvantage, as that can be overcome with scanning a pleathora of stocks. I really like the advantages, bigger posisiton size, plus less risk of false breakout since pullback to breakout line is on contracting volume.
You think this is possible scan to do? I guess we would need to start creating a list of "known" stocks that have broken out (triply confirmed) and have a scan check the behavior for the next 1 to 3 months. When price gets back to x% from breakout line, calculate average vol for red candles and compare to previous green candles after breakout.
Yep.. thinking when I'm tired makes me think outside the "box"
Regards,
Patrick
(2018-05-05, 11:57 AM)isatrader Wrote: AZ.TO - I've been watching this miner for a while, after playing it's initial continuation breakout at the start of the year. For the last three months it's formed a very tight range, and is once again trading near to a recent swing high. So is one I'm watching very closely for a breakout attempt.
(2018-05-06, 08:36 PM)badcharts Wrote: You think this is possible scan to do? I guess we would need to start creating a list of "known" stocks that have broken out (triply confirmed) and have a scan check the behavior for the next 1 to 3 months. When price gets back to x% from breakout line, calculate average vol for red candles and compare to previous green candles after breakout.
I think it's possible, but with the scans you have to limit the amount of variables that you put in to get good results. As your eyes are what ultimately does the best scans with Weinsteins method. So I find it best to use a scan with a few key variables that will produce a hundred or so results and then manually go through the charts to find the potentials.
For the scan you are looking for I'd suggest scanning for a touch of the 50 day MA, but daily close above it, in a stock that has a rising 150 day MA and made a new 50 day high in the last month, with lower than it's 50 day average daily volume. This a quick idea, but think it might give you some reasonable results and then could be improved.
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
Yes, I realized that also, nothing beats the human eye!
Will check fiddle around with your ideas and see what type of results I come up with.
Regards,
Patrick
(2018-05-06, 09:12 PM)isatrader Wrote:
(2018-05-06, 08:36 PM)badcharts Wrote: You think this is possible scan to do? I guess we would need to start creating a list of "known" stocks that have broken out (triply confirmed) and have a scan check the behavior for the next 1 to 3 months. When price gets back to x% from breakout line, calculate average vol for red candles and compare to previous green candles after breakout.
I think it's possible, but with the scans you have to limit the amount of variables that you put in to get good results. As your eyes are what ultimately does the best scans with Weinsteins method. So I find it best to use a scan with a few key variables that will produce a hundred or so results and then manually go through the charts to find the potentials.
For the scan you are looking for I'd suggest scanning for a touch of the 50 day MA, but daily close above it, in a stock that has a rising 150 day MA and made a new 50 day high in the last month, with lower than it's 50 day average daily volume. This a quick idea, but think it might give you some reasonable results and then could be improved.
(2018-05-06, 09:26 PM)badcharts Wrote: Will check fiddle around with your ideas and see what type of results I come up with.
Another idea might simply be to create a chartlist of all the early Stage 2 breakouts already in progress. i.e making their first or second significant advance higher following the initial Stage 2A breakout point on heavy volume i.e during wave 1 or wave 3 if you like Elliott wave theory. And then just simply look through the chartlist at the end of each week for the first multi week pullback.
At that point if you drop down the timeframes to the 2 hour chart, you can practice Stage Analysis on an intraday level to perfectly time the entry point, as the pullback on the 2 hour chart will present as a Stage 4 decline if you setup the 2 hour chart with the same settings as the weekly chart.
So you simply wait for the stocks Stage 1 base to form on the 2 hour chart, and monitor the volume of the decline compared to the 2 hour Stage 2 advance that just preceeded it. Then as the pullback slows you should see a Stage 1 base forming on the 2 hour chart, which after the initial bounce will give you a level to watch for a Stage 2A breakout as it would on the weekly, you can even use the 2 hour ichimoku cloud to see resistance. Then as with a weekly Stage 2A breakout, all the same rules apply. The breakout above that Stage 1 level should be on at least 2x the volume on the 2 hour chart, and it should be relatively outperforming the S&P 500, or it's a pass.
This multi timeframe method on pullbacks is not part of Stans method, but something I've used to good effect many times, and something that I'm continuing to refine as my own improvement to the Stage Analysis method. As well as a multi timeframe approach on the breakouts, where I use the monthly, weekly, daily and 2 hours charts.
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
You're forcing me to take a nice warm coffe and read this correctly!
I also look at the higher trend to confimr the "wind" direction and look at smaller timeframes to confirm (for non-marabuzo candles) if the pullback was (wick) done on contracting volume (healthy). You are right, you become more more procficient in avoiding whipsaws when you levergae different timeframes.
I somethimes feel like I'm in the movei "Inception" when manipulating different timeframes. kinda cool actually when I think of it.
Always great getting your feeback!
Regards,
Patrick
(2018-05-06, 10:52 PM)isatrader Wrote:
(2018-05-06, 09:26 PM)badcharts Wrote: Will check fiddle around with your ideas and see what type of results I come up with.
Another idea might simply be to create a chartlist of all the early Stage 2 breakouts already in progress. i.e making their first or second significant advance higher following the initial Stage 2A breakout point on heavy volume i.e during wave 1 or wave 3 if you like Elliott wave theory. And then just simply look through the chartlist at the end of each week for the first multi week pullback.
At that point if you drop down the timeframes to the 2 hour chart, you can practice Stage Analysis on an intraday level to perfectly time the entry point, as the pullback on the 2 hour chart will present as a Stage 4 decline if you setup the 2 hour chart with the same settings as the weekly chart.
So you simply wait for the stocks Stage 1 base to form on the 2 hour chart, and monitor the volume of the decline compared to the 2 hour Stage 2 advance that just preceeded it. Then as the pullback slows you should see a Stage 1 base forming on the 2 hour chart, which after the initial bounce will give you a level to watch for a Stage 2A breakout as it would on the weekly, you can even use the 2 hour ichimoku cloud to see resistance. Then as with a weekly Stage 2A breakout, all the same rules apply. The breakout above that Stage 1 level should be on at least 2x the volume on the 2 hour chart, and it should be relatively outperforming the S&P 500, or it's a pass.
This multi timeframe method on pullbacks is not part of Stans method, but something I've used to good effect many times, and something that I'm continuing to refine as my own improvement to the Stage Analysis method. As well as a multi timeframe approach on the breakouts, where I use the monthly, weekly, daily and 2 hours charts.
