(2013-07-18, 04:00 AM)gbarbs Wrote: i have several in this sector. acor, amag, itmn, thrx, cbst. just posted ino on the trader thread the other day, but wasn't sure about the entry point and didn't buy. it then took off so a good sign i guess for the group. idix is looking to form stage 1 base and is further behind than the others - maybe a chance to catch one on the breakout soon?
IDIX is potentially building a longer term Stage 1 base that I'd mark out as back to the October low last year, as it hasn't managed to close below that since, or above the initial swing high it made following that low. However it's still making lower lows, and the 30 week MA is once again declining, so the recent spike to the top of the range moved it from Stage 4 into early Stage 1A, but the sharp -30% gap down to the bottom of the range again and a lower low mean that the technical pattern isn't great so I'd personally add a minus symbol to the Stage to make it Stage 1A-
So it is one for the investor watchlist as it could be forming a big base which are the best for the investor method, but also watch for a Stage 4 continuation move lower, as Stage 1A patterns often break down into a continuation move lower as it's still very early in the Stage 1 phase (only a few months) and hence needs much more time imo.
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
(This post was last modified: 2013-07-18, 06:06 PM by anupam384.)
RE: Watchlist - Investor method
(2013-07-18, 04:00 AM)gbarbs Wrote:
(2013-07-18, 03:06 AM)anupam384 Wrote: ASTX: I know its been quite sometime since ASTX broke out. It also pulled back. I got in at 5.20. I think it still has room to run.
anupam - i like the sector a lot, and the chart. it has nice wide swings in the base - had a significant advance before the BO, and the RS pulled away from zero. those i recall are ingredients for big winners. i have several in this sector. acor, amag, itmn, thrx, cbst. just posted ino on the trader thread the other day, but wasn't sure about the entry point and didn't buy. it then took off so a good sign i guess for the group. idix is looking to form stage 1 base and is further behind than the others - maybe a chance to catch one on the breakout soon?
the only negative comment i can make is i am not sure about your entry. what are you using as your sell stop? looking at the daily, i could see using maybe 4.99?? but looking at the weekly i am not seeing nearby support. good luck and thank you for the post. i missed this one and added to my watchlist.
gbarbs: I am certainly no expert, but I am having a hard time finding any other targets in any other sector. So I have been looking at this particular sector for past few weeks.
You are absolutely right about my entry, its not the best but let me explain why I entered where I did. Looking at weekly charts, before ASTX pulled back to 4.0 I believe there was a big down week with significantly high volume. This made be rethink if this was a normal pullback or something else. So I waited a little bit to see where the stock was going. Just in a couple of weeks, the stock was overextended.
So I entered at 5.20 but with only half the capital I want to invest in this stock. Since the entry that I have and how NYSE advance decline line is not making new highs while S&P is, I believe we might be looking at a 5-6% pullback in the market and before I hit my stop loss( 4.50), I will add to my position bringing my price paid for the stock down and hope that I do not hit the stop loss.
Based on what is going on in the company and the open interest of call, I hope this stock would not crash and burn. This stock was so enticing for me, I had to get in.
And if it does crash and burn I hope I learn from my mistake.
(2013-07-18, 09:46 AM)isatrader Wrote:
(2013-07-18, 03:06 AM)anupam384 Wrote: ASTX: I know its been quite sometime since ASTX broke out. It also pulled back. I got in at 5.20. I think it still has room to run.
Hi anupam384,
I've attached the weekly and daily charts for ASTX and some long term point and figure charts, and have marked the Stage 2A breakout point, which imo occurred in June 2012 as it broke out and the 30 week MA also turned higher, which it didn't in January that year when the price spiked sharply higher, and hence why that wasn't a Stage 2 move, and would have still be considered Stage 1 at the time.
ASTX is currently in a fairly strong Stage 2 phase and has outperformed the S&P 500 since it broke out into Stage 2A last year. So you're entry at 5.20 would be considered a pullback entry within Stage 2, and normally would be used for additional buying, as ideally for the investor method the initial entry should be half at the Stage 2A breakout level (June 2012) and half on the first significant pullback and stabilisation (late November 2012) - which in ASTX's case would have got you in around the 2 to 3 range.
Stop loss positioning for the investor method should go below the last significant weekly swing low and the 30 week MA. So for this that would be below 3.90 - however, if you'd actually entered at the Stage 2A breakout point and had been raising your stop as suggested in the book it would be a bit lower as you don't raise you stop until the price gets near to the previous swing high, which it hasn't reached yet.
So I just wanted to make that clear for any new members reading this and say good luck to anupam384 with the trade.
isatrader - Thanks for the analysis (which goes out to show how many things did I do wrong ).
Since I entered late in the trade because of the reason mentioned in my reply to gbarbs, I have the stop loss at 4.50 ~ 30 SMA
And you are right, I should have added to my position as opposed to enter at this pullback.
(This post was last modified: 2013-07-19, 03:52 PM by gbarbs.)
RE: Watchlist - Investor method
(2013-07-18, 11:24 AM)isatrader Wrote:
(2013-07-18, 04:00 AM)gbarbs Wrote: i have several in this sector. acor, amag, itmn, thrx, cbst. just posted ino on the trader thread the other day, but wasn't sure about the entry point and didn't buy. it then took off so a good sign i guess for the group. idix is looking to form stage 1 base and is further behind than the others - maybe a chance to catch one on the breakout soon?
IDIX is potentially building a longer term Stage 1 base that I'd mark out as back to the October low last year, as it hasn't managed to close below that since, or above the initial swing high it made following that low. However it's still making lower lows, and the 30 week MA is once again declining, so the recent spike to the top of the range moved it from Stage 4 into early Stage 1A, but the sharp -30% gap down to the bottom of the range again and a lower low mean that the technical pattern isn't great so I'd personally add a minus symbol to the Stage to make it Stage 1A-
So it is one for the investor watchlist as it could be forming a big base which are the best for the investor method, but also watch for a Stage 4 continuation move lower, as Stage 1A patterns often break down into a continuation move lower as it's still very early in the Stage 1 phase (only a few months) and hence needs much more time imo.
Yes, I completely agree. A few months from now the previous resistance will be over a year old, and if it does try to come to a breakout point, I imagine the MA will be no longer declining. I am watching because of the performance of its peers, but not looking for anything for a while.
Attached is NGD chart. I was stopped out of half of my position this week when it broke up to 7.01.
So, I am trading this but am posting here because I am not sure if the swing rule would apply to this chart. If I do apply it, I see a price target of 3.07. If that is the case there is still life left in this downtrend.
RWC looking to see if that steeper TL holds or if it falls back to a safer buying area. Otherwise RS is great, volume good. Not at a 10 year high but resistance is old.
RWC bounced off that TL but I wasn't watching. Didn't enter a buy stop so I missed out on the quick bounce.
What do you think about MNKD. It broke out in June on high volume and has pulled back since. I know there is some previous overhead resistance but that is like 2.5 years old. What are your thoughts on it
(2013-07-20, 12:37 AM)anupam384 Wrote: What do you think about MNKD. It broke out in June on high volume and has pulled back since. I know there is some previous overhead resistance but that is like 2.5 years old. What are your thoughts on it
The Stage 2 breakout was in March around the 3 level, and so it has already had a 150%+ since then. It's in Stage 2 currently, but needs to clear the recent swing high to make a new Stage 2 continuation move.
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
(2013-07-20, 12:37 AM)anupam384 Wrote: What do you think about MNKD. It broke out in June on high volume and has pulled back since. I know there is some previous overhead resistance but that is like 2.5 years old. What are your thoughts on it
The Stage 2 breakout was in March around the 3 level, and so it has already had a 150%+ since then. It's in Stage 2 currently, but needs to clear the recent swing high to make a new Stage 2 continuation move.
Thanks for your insight. Seems like I missed the boat on this one too. I know every trader is different but still if you don't mind, could you let me and others know the scan that you run to find stocks that might break out and should be on our watchlist. The one that I use now clearly misses a lot of these breakouts and I catch them on the pullbacks.
I have an account at Stockfetcher and if you give me some parameters I can try to have a filter who would spit out some stocks for my watchlist.
to get in.
).