[gbarbs]

that one certainly looks different. not just upside down but its still above the rising MA (falling upside down). the charts i am looking at have breakdowns through the MA and many through support and the MA is flatter.

i see where you are coming from turning it upside down as we are looking for the same things in both directions, but am pretty sure one of the "ideal" shorts was to look for a stock that has had a significant advance over the last year or so. or, are you referring to the strong 2 year base being part of the group chart and not necessarily on the stock you are shorting?

in any case maybe the homebuilding the the UK has a different outlook than the US

[notanewmember]

I focus on UK shares, and one area I do need to expand on is the US markets - the biggest most liquid markets in the world.

UK Home builders are stronger here because, possibly, the Chancellor has introduced packages giving 20% deposits interest free for new build properties and London prime property has become some sort of safe haven for global European rich, American Rich, Japanese Rich, Hong Kong and Chinese Rich trying to preserve their wealth. Can one believe a small house in Central London would require the best part of half a million pounds today.

I would like to see a 2 yr low before I would want to short Home builders.

[isatrader]

I'm back from my holiday and it looks like there's been some good discussion over the last week on here. Firstly I like to say a big welcome to gbarbs and notanewmember who both have made excellent initial content contributions to the site - so thank you and I hope it continues.

Ok, onto what's been discussed beginning with short interest. This is not an area I've done any work on yet, so thanks to goodtyneguy for his answer to gbarbs and the link to shortsqueeze.com - which looks a very useful tool for short interest research. I will add this subject to the to do list to be researched further on the site.

Secondly is the discussion about homebuilder stocks in the US and the UK. I put LEN on the watchlist a week or so back as it broke down from a six month Stage 3 range and moved into early Stage 4 (Stage 4A), well below it's major moving averages which are turning lower. The Dow Jones US Home Construction Index ($DJUSHB) which is the average for all the stocks in the sector is also very close to early Stage 4, and so I'd rate the sector as a Stage 3B currently (late in Stage 3), as it's relative performance line versus the S&P 500 has broken down below it's 52 week MA (Mansfield zero line), volume has increased and the 30 week MA is flattening out.

       

Using the chartmill.com sector table - which allows you to rank by the average Mansfield Relative Strength reading for each group - the sector is currently 96th out of 213 sectors, and so it's now only an average sector, after being one of the top sectors in 2012, and LEN itself is near the bottom in the group, along with MDC, NVR, DHI and TOL which are all in similar stages.

I've attached the LEN charts below, and I've also included the monthly and weekly technical attributes charts as these show why I think it's very early Stage 4 on the weekly basis (zero out of 9 technical attributes score), but also has longer term strength as the monthly chart is in Stage 2, and is just beginning it's first significant pullback with a monthly close below the 10 month moving average, but still has a monthly technical attributes score of 9 out of 9, and is well above it's 30 month MA - which comes in around the 27 level. And so a weekly Stage 4 move to the swing target of roughly 29 would still keep it in a longer term "monthly" Stage 2 and so hence why it should only be considered for more aggressive short term traders imo, for a quick trader play, as the longer term trend is very much intact and could reassert itself if the broad market doesn't breakdown further, as currently all of the key major US indexes are above their 30 week moving averages still.

LEN - Monthly and Weekly Technical Attributes Charts

   

LEN - Weekly and Daily Weinstein Charts

   

The UK however is different as notanewmember noted, with the Household Goods and Home Construction Sector (NMX3720) still very strong in Stage 2B above it's rising 30 week MA, with good relative performance versus the market. The sector is also the fourth strongest out of the 38 UK sectors and so is definitely not a sector to be shorting using Weinstein's method. See attached below.

   

[isatrader]

A few UK stocks for my SIPP watchlist that have been negative for a long time but look to be beginning to turn around. CHG.L, HSV.L, IAP.L and TLPR.L

However, the market is not in the right place at the moment for an investor position imo, and would against the key guidance of the method, with the FTSE 100 in Stage 3, but flirting with a Stage 4A breakdown. So I will keep my eye on these for the time being.

Chemring (CHG.L) - Stage 1

   

Homeserve (HSV.L) - Stage 2A

   

ICAP (IAP.L) - Stage 2A

   

Tullett Prebon (TLPR.L) - Stage 2A

   

[notanewmember]

As Mr. Good mentioned on this thread earlier, the greek etf GREK had a breakout to all time highs a week or two ago. I noticed it has made a nice pullback since then and might be about time for a pullback entry. I usually like to wait until it starts heading up..

My 2p

I think it was a false signal.



It made a 2 yr high breakout, pulled back and fell past the breakout point. The RSI was good, and volume healthy, but not all set ups work out. It has got to make a new high on top of this one to be in. It doesn't matter the price you get in, all that matters is the journey you travel between two points and the profit at the end of it. In my humblest opinions that is. If one plans the trade before hand, you can work out how much you lose - and think if I lost that amount, could I live with that. The stop must be adhered to as brutally and with the same conviction as you felt when you buy.

[isatrader]

I'd thought I'd follow up on notanewmember's post above on the Athens Index and show the longer term chart as the GREK ETF hasn't been trading for very long.

The index shows imo that after a brief Stage 2 advance from October 2012 to May 2013 that it's now in Stage 3 and flirting with a potential breakdown to Stage 4A as the technicals have all turned negative. So I think a weekly close below the 800 level would signal a move into Stage 4 again, and so this is only suitable for a trader method pick on the short side currently. Attached is my charts

[gbarbs]

I see a breakout on INO but can't identify a nearby stop. I don't see a nearby stop so was going to look at the 4-6% rule. With such a low price not sure what a good round number would be. Any thoughts anyone? Right now I am thinking I just have to wait.

   
   

[isatrader]

I see a breakout on INO but can't identify a nearby stop. I don't see a nearby stop so was going to look at the 4-6% rule. With such a low price not sure what a good round number would be. Any thoughts anyone? Right now I am thinking I just have to wait.

One of the rules with breakouts is that it needs to close near the high of the range on the breakout day/week, so I'm not sure that INO fulfills that, as it's near the lower end of the weekly range currently and so it's an iffy one imo, although it had excellent volume on the breakout day. So waiting seems sensible to me in this case, but that's just my opinion.

However, if you do trade it then there is no nearby swing low to use on the daily chart, so in that case I'd look to alternative methods like point and figure charts which gives you a clear place to put the stop loss below 0.79 on the 1% by 3 reversal chart, as that would be a double bottom breakdown and hence a short term sell signal. See attached.