(2016-07-08, 06:26 PM)isatrader Wrote: REN - Stage 1 base has been developing since the Aug 2015 low, and now there's potential for a Stage 2A breakout attempt. One to watch imo, as has a big base, and energy is a strengthening sector.
REN - one of my best watchlist picks of the last few months http://stageanalysis.net/forum/showthrea...0#pid10310 has been pulling back following it's one week 100%+ move to make the Stage 2A breakout. It's pulled back around 30% from the highs of the breakout week, which if you go down to the intraday 2 hour chart (attached below), it shows as a mini Stage 4, and is now showing signs of potentially moving into Stage 1A on the 2 hour chart. And hence, is potentially in the investor B entry point zone imo. As the pullback has been on much lower volume than the breakout, which is one of the key attributes that we look for in the initial pullback using the investor method.
The investor B entry point is always tricky to judge, as you are trying to judge whether the pullback is over, or whether it has another leg lower still. So personally, I prefer to use Stage Analysis on the 2 hour chart to help judge this, and simply wait for the Stage 2A breakout to occur on that timescale, using all the same settings as the weekly chart. As although you potentially buy a little bit higher by waiting for the intraday breakout level to be breached. It does give you some protection from getting in too early, and having to wait through another leg down of the pullback and potentially getting stopped out.
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
The energy sector is coming back to life again recently, after the monster multi 100%+ short covering rallies at the beginning of the year for a lot of stocks in the sector, ending their multi year Stage 4 declines. A large number then began to form constructive Stage 1 ranges, and we are now beginning to see a number of Stage 2A breakouts, and on heavy volume in some cases. The Exploration & Production subsector has seen a number of these heavy volume breakouts of which I've been highlighting, and there could be more, as money seems to be flowing into energy imo. So is definitely an area to watch if you are using Weinstein's "Forest for the Trees" rules imo. As it is a strengthening sector with multiple stocks in Stages 1 and early in Stage 2.
Anyway, I'll let you do your own research to see if you agree, but here's a few more for the watchlist from the Exploration & Production subsector - MPET (Stage 2A), PXD (Early Stage 2 consolidation), PWE (Stage 1B - Potential for a Stage 2A breakout attempt)
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
(This post was last modified: 2016-08-06, 06:00 PM by kero.)
RE: US Stocks - Watchlist and Discussion
I've also seen a lot of interesting patterns on Oil&Gas' stocks. I even was going to try some entry, but I was unconfortable with the fact that the Oil&Gas Producers and Oil Equipment/Services sectors still are not in phase 2. My sectors momentum classification also is not good, as the RS on those sectors. The recent correction of Brent confirmed my feeling, as I was seing a lot of stocks go down again.
Now, a possible approach could be to try an entry on a very limited number of stocks, going on those who have the best RS.
Knot Offshore Partners and Transmontaigne are probably the ones with the best shape and RS that I have in my screener (for now). It's worth noting that the stocks didn't experience a such strong bear trend as other stocks, and also especially that it didn't suffer to much from the recent Brent correction.
(2016-08-06, 05:42 PM)kero Wrote: Now, a possible approach could be to try an entry on a very limited number of stocks, going on those who have the best RS.
Knot Offshore Partners and Transmontaigne are probably the ones with the best shape and RS that I have in my screener (for now). It's worth noting that the stocks didn't experience a such strong bear trend as other stocks, and also especially that it didn't suffer to much from the recent Brent correction.
I personally couldn't trade either of those, as their daily volumes are far too low, with both having an average volume under 100k a day. So they'd be immediately discounted, as I will only trade US stocks with average volumes over 1 million a day. But ideally much more as they move into Stage 2.
Also Knot Offshore Partners (KNOT) is not in the sector that I was talking about, as it is in the Marine Transportation Sector, which is Industrial, as they operate and acquire shuttle tankers under long-term charters. So that was the weakest sector of the last month in the entire US market overall.
And as you'll see if you go through the charts in these sectors, there is huge number in Stage 1 ranges, with some early leaders breaking out or already in Stage 2.
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
(This post was last modified: 2016-08-07, 11:47 AM by odlareg.)
RE: US Stocks - Watchlist and Discussion
(2016-08-06, 12:28 AM)isatrader Wrote: The energy sector is coming back to life again recently, after the monster multi 100%+ short covering rallies at the beginning of the year for a lot of stocks in the sector, ending their multi year Stage 4 declines. A large number then began to form constructive Stage 1 ranges, and we are now beginning to see a number of Stage 2A breakouts, and on heavy volume in some cases. The Exploration & Production subsector has seen a number of these heavy volume breakouts of which I've been highlighting, and there could be more, as money seems to be flowing into energy imo. So is definitely an area to watch if you are using Weinstein's "Forest for the Trees" rules imo. As it is a strengthening sector with multiple stocks in Stages 1 and early in Stage 2.
Anyway, I'll let you do your own research to see if you agree, but here's a few more for the watchlist from the Exploration & Production subsector - MPET (Stage 2A), PXD (Early Stage 2 consolidation), PWE (Stage 1B - Potential for a Stage 2A breakout attempt)
The PXD has nearly reached the top of it's historical range (back to 1993) with this break. So to risky imo. The initial break in PXD to wards 2A was not noticeable in terms of volume. So no good candidate either, imo. There are always better candidates. Sorry, feel i am only being critical.
(2016-08-06, 05:42 PM)kero Wrote: I've also seen a lot of interesting patterns on Oil&Gas' stocks. I even was going to try some entry, but I was unconfortable with the fact that the Oil&Gas Producers and Oil Equipment/Services sectors still are not in phase 2. My sectors momentum classification also is not good, as the RS on those sectors. The recent correction of Brent confirmed my feeling, as I was seing a lot of stocks go down again.
Now, a possible approach could be to try an entry on a very limited number of stocks, going on those who have the best RS.
Knot Offshore Partners and Transmontaigne are probably the ones with the best shape and RS that I have in my screener (for now). It's worth noting that the stocks didn't experience a such strong bear trend as other stocks, and also especially that it didn't suffer to much from the recent Brent correction.
There is definitly something going on in this sector. We need to find the early leader breakouts.
(2016-08-07, 11:35 AM)odlareg Wrote: The PXD has nearly reached the top of it's historical range (back to 1993) with this break. So to risky imo. The initial break in PXD to wards 2A was not noticeable in terms of volume. So no good candidate either, imo. There are always better candidates. Sorry, feel i am only being critical.
I think you've missed the point of the post. I'm not recommending any of the stocks as a buy, I'm just highlighting the improving state of these particular sectors, as it's an important part of the Forest to the Trees method.
Also with regards to PXD. It is a US large cap, and so is unlikley to ever show the volume profile that the method looks for, of which has been discussed many times in the past on here.
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
