EXPE - Potential for a Stage 4 continuation lower, after moving back below long term support. Relative perfromance versus the S&P 500 is below a flattening zero line, and weaker than the price action.
SYNA - Long term support. Watch for major Stage 4 breakdown
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
(2016-06-14, 12:21 AM)barra Wrote: After oil, natural gas is rising again.
Is there an opportunity to buy a future long bull market?
Be careful with trading Oil or Gas ETFs as they suffer from contango, which causes the spreads of the ETFs to dramatially underperform the actual spot price over the medium to long term (see attched), and so you can end up losing even when the spot is rising. For example, the natural gas spot price over the last 200 days has fallen and then recovered to only down 4%, but the UNG ETF is still down 38%!!!! Wherea spot oil is currently up almost 14% in the last 200 days, whereas the USO ETF that tracks it for retail investors is down 15%!!! Which I think highlights the problem with energy ETFs. The better way to play them imo, is via stocks in the oil and gas sector instead which don't have these problems.
(2016-06-14, 12:21 AM)barra Wrote: After oil, natural gas is rising again.
Is there an opportunity to buy a future long bull market?
Be careful with trading Oil or Gas ETFs as they suffer from contango, which causes the spreads of the ETFs to dramatially underperform the actual spot price over the medium to long term (see attched), and so you can end up losing even when the spot is rising. For example, the natural gas spot price over the last 200 days has fallen and then recovered to only down 4%, but the UNG ETF is still down 38%!!!! Wherea spot oil is currently up almost 14% in the last 200 days, whereas the USO ETF that tracks it for retail investors is down 15%!!! Which I think highlights the problem with energy ETFs. The better way to play them imo, is via stocks in the oil and gas sector instead which don't have these problems.
Thanks for the reply. The differences beetwen ETFs and spot gas and oil are very impressive, indeed. I was aware of contago effects, but i didn't realize the scale of the impact. Done.
I'll find a stock linked to natural gas performances.
(2016-06-14, 12:21 AM)barra Wrote: After oil, natural gas is rising again.
Is there an opportunity to buy a future long bull market?
I have oil as still having a falling MA:
I'm waiting for it to level off before going for oil & gas producers. I'll have to watch gas as well.
Ok guys, thanks for replies.
May be I've missed something but i use the MA30 weekly (and MAE30) as designated by Stan Weinstein. And the prices are currently above the both MA.
Anyway, there is three periods for natural gas
- first: prices drop and volumes are stable
- second: end of the drop. prices are stable and volumes are rising
- and third one currently according to me: prices are starting to rise and volumes are also rising which is the evidence of the beginning of stage 2.
