(2015-01-15, 03:21 PM)Amedee Wrote: What about TWTR? Stage 2A?
For a first position when it hits $41?
No, it's still in Stage 1. It attempted what I call an early Stage 2A breakout back in August/September, but failed as it was too early and so that high becomes the top of the Stage 1 range unless a new lower swing high forms above the 30 week MA.
So currently it's made a potential higher low and the 30 week MA has turned up to flat. Relative performance is still below the declining zero line. So imo the Stage 2A breakout point wouldn't be until a breakout on strong relative volume above $56 currently.
Also, it breaks a few of Stan's Don't Commandments - see page 129 in the book.
The 3 box reversal P&F charts are a good guide usually to help find the Stage 2A breakout point, as it will generally occur above the declining 45Ëš trendline.
There's nothing stopping you playing Stage 1 stocks, but the failure rate in my experience is much higher than Stage 2 stocks as they are still under near term resistance and they can stay in Stage 1 for a long time as they try to work off supply from their declines. Personally, I think the Stage 1 base needs to be a minimum size of six months, but a year would be better.