PFD.L - Stage 2A breakout attempt on strong volume
PFD.L - Stage 2A breakout attempt from near it’s recent low in a single week, with 6.5x the average weekly volume on breakout so far after only three days, and relative performance above a flattening zero line. Merger talks seem to be the catalyst for the move.
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
(This post was last modified: 2016-04-14, 09:20 PM by pcabc.)
RE: UK Stocks - Watchlist and Discussion
Follow-up to earlier. Must also credit Isatrader's post on Exxon Mobil the other day.
Oil stocks seem to be moving out of stage 4. Charts look similar as does the oil and gas producers ETF SPOG.L. However, a Brent ETF indicates oil is still in stage 4 though it looks like it is strengthening - however that happend earlier on which was followed by decline. Looking at my own breadth calcs, take care, they are likely inaccurate, I don't see the massive improvement that we saw with gold miners, however, it may be strengthening.
I'm wondering if an oil producer might be a good next position given that I'm 40-50% positioned on gold & silver miners. However, I'm wondering about caution as the MA for oil is still falling.
(2016-04-14, 09:18 PM)pcabc Wrote: I'm wondering if an oil producer might be a good next position given that I'm 40-50% positioned on gold & silver miners. However, I'm wondering about caution as the MA for oil is still falling.
US Oil ($WTIC) is making a new attempt at forming a Stage 1 base, and has recently moved into Stage 1A. But as you can see from the attached weekly chart, there's still a fair bit of overhead resistance to work through.
There's going to be some very big movers in this sector, as the Stage 4 decline was so large for a lot of oil stocks, but it's Stage is not as advanced as the gold sector, as gold stocks are in early Stage 2, whereas oils stocks are in Stage 4B-/1A in general - see attached VDE chart which is in Stage 1A.
One method that I find useful personally is to run the relative performance of the two sectors. So in this case I've used VDE for oil stocks and GDX for gold stocks, and used a 2% P&F chart for a decent view. As you can see VDE is underperforming GDX since the start of the year, and the ratio is consolidating in Stage 4 currently, but could be forming a bottom. So a breakout above the downtrend line in the ratio chart would signal it's time to give more weighting to oil stocks over gold stocks. But it's not there yet according to the ratio chart, but it is very close to it, and so is certainly a possibility. But a trend can last a long time. So until it's broken the relative performance still favours the gold stocks currently imo.
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
(2016-04-14, 09:18 PM)pcabc Wrote: I'm wondering if an oil producer might be a good next position given that I'm 40-50% positioned on gold & silver miners. However, I'm wondering about caution as the MA for oil is still falling.
US Oil ($WTIC) is making a new attempt at forming a Stage 1 base, and has recently moved into Stage 1A. But as you can see from the attached weekly chart, there's still a fair bit of overhead resistance to work through.
IIRC the stage 2 needed to see a higher high and a higher low. I have a habit of calling stage 2 too early. Regarding the resistance, the price is above the Ichimoku cloud on daily charts but as you clearly show it, well below on weekly.
Quote:One method that I find useful personally is to run the relative performance of the two sectors. So in this case I've used VDE for oil stocks and GDX for gold stocks, and used a 2% P&F chart for a decent view. As you can see VDE is underperforming GDX since the start of the year, and the ratio is consolidating in Stage 4 currently, but could be forming a bottom. So a breakout above the downtrend line in the ratio chart would signal it's time to give more weighting to oil stocks over gold stocks. But it's not there yet according to the ratio chart, but it is very close to it, and so is certainly a possibility. But a trend can last a long time. So until it's broken the relative performance still favours the gold stocks currently imo.
I've already got relative strength charts here so I just need to create a few more combinations. I'm not sure that I'd want to go for another miner right now. I'm about 40-50% in gold and silver miners, some in property funds / ETF, a US treasury bond ETF, a couple of short EFTs and some cash. I'm not sure I'd want to go above 50% in one particular area. OTOH stop losses are helpful if available. Probally too early for oil until we can see something clear happening with the oil price as well as the breadth having not turned around.
Thanks for the charts, always useful to compare notes.
