(2014-02-15, 04:25 PM)isatrader Wrote: Attached is the weekly and monthly charts of the FTSE 100 (UKX), FTSE 250 (MCX), and the FTSE AIM All Share (AXX)
The AIM is outperforming in Stage 2, wheres the FTSE 250 is still holding onto Stage 2B, and the main FTSE 100 continues to under perform in the Stage 3 consolidation it's been stuck in for most of the last year.
Hi ISA, Weistein mentions in his book but never really expanded on how he uses monthly charts, other than he looks at each (inc daily) prior to making a decision
How have you interpreted this, and FTSE is a good example. Monthly is stage 2, weekly in stage 3.
Therefore any decline in FTSE to stage 4 on a weekly, will probably just be a retracement to the monthly 30MA. before possibly continuing.
would you be cautious then with a stage 4 weekly (should it arise) and wait for another stage 1 or maybe just use half position sizes?
if not, then what significance is the monthly to you?
apologies if this is a numpty question
(2014-02-15, 04:25 PM)isatrader Wrote: Attached is the weekly and monthly charts of the FTSE 100 (UKX), FTSE 250 (MCX), and the FTSE AIM All Share (AXX)
The AIM is outperforming in Stage 2, wheres the FTSE 250 is still holding onto Stage 2B, and the main FTSE 100 continues to under perform in the Stage 3 consolidation it's been stuck in for most of the last year.
Hi ISA, Weistein mentions in his book but never really expanded on how he uses monthly charts, other than he looks at each (inc daily) prior to making a decision
How have you interpreted this, and FTSE is a good example. Monthly is stage 2, weekly in stage 3.
Therefore any decline in FTSE to stage 4 on a weekly, will probably just be a retracement to the monthly 30MA. before possibly continuing.
would you be cautious then with a stage 4 weekly (should it arise) and wait for another stage 1 or maybe just use half position sizes?
if not, then what significance is the monthly to you?
apologies if this is a numpty question
(2014-02-15, 06:20 PM)malaguti Wrote: Hi ISA, Weinstein mentions in his book but never really expanded on how he uses monthly charts, other than he looks at each (inc daily) prior to making a decision
How have you interpreted this, and FTSE is a good example. Monthly is stage 2, weekly in stage 3.
Therefore any decline in FTSE to stage 4 on a weekly, will probably just be a retracement to the monthly 30MA. before possibly continuing.
would you be cautious then with a stage 4 weekly (should it arise) and wait for another stage 1 or maybe just use half position sizes?
if not, then what significance is the monthly to you?
apologies if this is a numpty question
It's not a silly question at all and something I've been looking at for a while as as an investor I find monthly charts critical in my decision making and largely ignore the daily charts except for fine tuning entries and exits.
Basically when different time frames contradict each other, i.e. your example of the weekly moving into Stage 4, while in a monthly Stage 2, the monthly is the major trend and so the weekly Stage 4 breakdown should be considered with more caution imo, as the longer term trend is still intact until it too breaks down. But, if the weekly Stage 4 decline doesn't damage the longer term monthly trend, then it would give you more confidence to get back into the strongest stocks as the weekly moves through to Stage 1 and back into a new fledgling Stage 2.
US Housebuilders ($DJUSHB) are a good example of this recently, as they were the leading US sector throughout most of 2012, and broke down into Stage 4 in mid 2013, but the Stage 4 decline was contained within the monthly Stage 2 advance, and they have now recently moved back into early Stage 2A on the weekly chart. So a breakout to new highs would put both charts back in alignment and put the probabilities on the side of a further Stage 2 advance.
How I use monthly charts is for additional confirmation of a Stage 2 move, and look for the monthly chart to be in Stage 1 or already in Stage 2 when the stock makes the normal weekly Stage 2A breakout. For example the weekly Stage 2A breakout will occur within a big monthly Stage 1 base (3 years or more) and then have a strong Stage 2 advance for many months before breaking out to new multi year highs, and making a monthly Stage 2A breakout. As the stock is then in a very strong position and will have potential for a long term advance.
So my opinion is that you will increase you chances of success if the various time frames are in sync and acting properly.
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
(2014-02-15, 06:20 PM)malaguti Wrote: Hi ISA, Weinstein mentions in his book but never really expanded on how he uses monthly charts, other than he looks at each (inc daily) prior to making a decision
How have you interpreted this, and FTSE is a good example. Monthly is stage 2, weekly in stage 3.
Therefore any decline in FTSE to stage 4 on a weekly, will probably just be a retracement to the monthly 30MA. before possibly continuing.
would you be cautious then with a stage 4 weekly (should it arise) and wait for another stage 1 or maybe just use half position sizes?
if not, then what significance is the monthly to you?
apologies if this is a numpty question
It's not a silly question at all and something I've been looking at for a while as as an investor I find monthly charts critical in my decision making and largely ignore the daily charts except for fine tuning entries and exits.
Basically when different time frames contradict each other, i.e. your example of the weekly moving into Stage 4, while in a monthly Stage 2, the monthly is the major trend and so the weekly Stage 4 breakdown should be considered with more caution imo, as the longer term trend is still intact until it too breaks down. But, if the weekly Stage 4 decline doesn't damage the longer term monthly trend, then it would give you more confidence to get back into the strongest stocks as the weekly moves through to Stage 1 and back into a new fledgling Stage 2.
US Housebuilders ($DJUSHB) are a good example of this recently, as they were the leading US sector throughout most of 2012, and broke down into Stage 4 in mid 2013, but the Stage 4 decline was contained within the monthly Stage 2 advance, and they have now recently moved back into early Stage 2A on the weekly chart. So a breakout to new highs would put both charts back in alignment and put the probabilities on the side of a further Stage 2 advance.
How I use monthly charts is for additional confirmation of a Stage 2 move, and look for the monthly chart to be in Stage 1 or already in Stage 2 when the stock makes the normal weekly Stage 2A breakout. For example the weekly Stage 2A breakout will occur within a big monthly Stage 1 base (3 years or more) and then have a strong Stage 2 advance for many months before breaking out to new multi year highs, and making a monthly Stage 2A breakout. As the stock is then in a very strong position and will have potential for a long term advance.
So my opinion is that you will increase you chances of success if the various time frames are in sync and acting properly.
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
(2014-02-15, 06:20 PM)malaguti Wrote: Hi ISA, Weinstein mentions in his book but never really expanded on how he uses monthly charts, other than he looks at each (inc daily) prior to making a decision
How have you interpreted this, and FTSE is a good example. Monthly is stage 2, weekly in stage 3.
Therefore any decline in FTSE to stage 4 on a weekly, will probably just be a retracement to the monthly 30MA. before possibly continuing.
would you be cautious then with a stage 4 weekly (should it arise) and wait for another stage 1 or maybe just use half position sizes?
if not, then what significance is the monthly to you?
apologies if this is a numpty question
It's not a silly question at all and something I've been looking at for a while as as an investor I find monthly charts critical in my decision making and largely ignore the daily charts except for fine tuning entries and exits.
Basically when different time frames contradict each other, i.e. your example of the weekly moving into Stage 4, while in a monthly Stage 2, the monthly is the major trend and so the weekly Stage 4 breakdown should be considered with more caution imo, as the longer term trend is still intact until it too breaks down. But, if the weekly Stage 4 decline doesn't damage the longer term monthly trend, then it would give you more confidence to get back into the strongest stocks as the weekly moves through to Stage 1 and back into a new fledgling Stage 2.
US Housebuilders ($DJUSHB) are a good example of this recently, as they were the leading US sector throughout most of 2012, and broke down into Stage 4 in mid 2013, but the Stage 4 decline was contained within the monthly Stage 2 advance, and they have now recently moved back into early Stage 2A on the weekly chart. So a breakout to new highs would put both charts back in alignment and put the probabilities on the side of a further Stage 2 advance.
How I use monthly charts is for additional confirmation of a Stage 2 move, and look for the monthly chart to be in Stage 1 or already in Stage 2 when the stock makes the normal weekly Stage 2A breakout. For example the weekly Stage 2A breakout will occur within a big monthly Stage 1 base (3 years or more) and then have a strong Stage 2 advance for many months before breaking out to new multi year highs, and making a monthly Stage 2A breakout. As the stock is then in a very strong position and will have potential for a long term advance.
So my opinion is that you will increase you chances of success if the various time frames are in sync and acting properly.
marvellous, thanks for that answer. twice through the book now, and I'll try to apply everything as best I can..this is going to be fun
(2014-02-15, 06:20 PM)malaguti Wrote: Hi ISA, Weinstein mentions in his book but never really expanded on how he uses monthly charts, other than he looks at each (inc daily) prior to making a decision
How have you interpreted this, and FTSE is a good example. Monthly is stage 2, weekly in stage 3.
Therefore any decline in FTSE to stage 4 on a weekly, will probably just be a retracement to the monthly 30MA. before possibly continuing.
would you be cautious then with a stage 4 weekly (should it arise) and wait for another stage 1 or maybe just use half position sizes?
if not, then what significance is the monthly to you?
apologies if this is a numpty question
It's not a silly question at all and something I've been looking at for a while as as an investor I find monthly charts critical in my decision making and largely ignore the daily charts except for fine tuning entries and exits.
Basically when different time frames contradict each other, i.e. your example of the weekly moving into Stage 4, while in a monthly Stage 2, the monthly is the major trend and so the weekly Stage 4 breakdown should be considered with more caution imo, as the longer term trend is still intact until it too breaks down. But, if the weekly Stage 4 decline doesn't damage the longer term monthly trend, then it would give you more confidence to get back into the strongest stocks as the weekly moves through to Stage 1 and back into a new fledgling Stage 2.
US Housebuilders ($DJUSHB) are a good example of this recently, as they were the leading US sector throughout most of 2012, and broke down into Stage 4 in mid 2013, but the Stage 4 decline was contained within the monthly Stage 2 advance, and they have now recently moved back into early Stage 2A on the weekly chart. So a breakout to new highs would put both charts back in alignment and put the probabilities on the side of a further Stage 2 advance.
How I use monthly charts is for additional confirmation of a Stage 2 move, and look for the monthly chart to be in Stage 1 or already in Stage 2 when the stock makes the normal weekly Stage 2A breakout. For example the weekly Stage 2A breakout will occur within a big monthly Stage 1 base (3 years or more) and then have a strong Stage 2 advance for many months before breaking out to new multi year highs, and making a monthly Stage 2A breakout. As the stock is then in a very strong position and will have potential for a long term advance.
So my opinion is that you will increase you chances of success if the various time frames are in sync and acting properly.
marvellous, thanks for that answer. twice through the book now, and I'll try to apply everything as best I can..this is going to be fun
