(2014-02-15, 09:54 PM)Tryst Wrote: Hi, IsaTrader, what is your take on HAIK? Is that classified as a stage 2A breakout?
Hi Tryst, HAIK broke out into Stage 2A on Jan 3rd imo at 23.50, on the daily close above the tight range that formed from July to the end of 2013. Volume on the breakout day was only average, but was followed by a strong volume day the next day of almost 4x the average, and it closed the week on just under 2x the weekly average and a cross above the relative performance zero line.
It's now made it's first continuation above previous resistance highs and it's moved above it's 30 month MA for the first time in a number of years although that's still declining currently. So although made it's first continuation I'd still consider it to be in Stage 2A (which means early in Stage 2).
It would be good to see more volume though, as half way through the month it's still under it's 12 month average volume, so ideally that would be 2x or more by the end of the month to show it's getting the necessary interest to fuel outperformance. So for example you want see 3x or more average volume on the breakout day, then at least 2x average volume on the breakout week, and then finally at least 2x on the monthly chart for extra confirmation that the stock is getting some interest. As volume is critical to finding the superstocks.
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
(2014-02-15, 09:54 PM)Tryst Wrote: Hi, IsaTrader, what is your take on HAIK? Is that classified as a stage 2A breakout?
Hi Tryst, HAIK broke out into Stage 2A on Jan 3rd imo at 23.50, on the daily close above the tight range that formed from July to the end of 2013. Volume on the breakout day was only average, but was followed by a strong volume day the next day of almost 4x the average, and it closed the week on just under 2x the weekly average and a cross above the relative performance zero line.
It's now made it's first continuation above previous resistance highs and it's moved above it's 30 month MA for the first time in a number of years although that's still declining currently. So although made it's first continuation I'd still consider it to be in Stage 2A (which means early in Stage 2).
It would be good to see more volume though, as half way through the month it's still under it's 12 month average volume, so ideally that would be 2x or more by the end of the month to show it's getting the necessary interest to fuel outperformance. So for example you want see 3x or more average volume on the breakout day, then at least 2x average volume on the breakout week, and then finally at least 2x on the monthly chart for extra confirmation that the stock is getting some interest. As volume is critical to finding the superstocks.
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
Here's one to watch possibly, chart for Anglo American and its sector
Sector is in stage 1 and about to break out, and Anglo is forming a double bottom with rising volume. Three negatives: the relative strength to the FTSE100 is positive, but not that strong and there is further resistance above, giving a 1:1 risk/reward and lastly the P&F chart is showing a firm downtrend..as does the monthly in stage 4
however, according to the book, only the resistance would be a factor as well as the RS rising and showing more strength.
I'd like the RS to increase slightly and begin rising and I may use this as a first one to watch and see. Certainly not the best.
As an early voyeur to this method, I can see that there will be many many more opportunities than P&F which could test the patience of a saint sometimes
Here's one to watch possibly, chart for Anglo American and its sector
Sector is in stage 1 and about to break out, and Anglo is forming a double bottom with rising volume. Three negatives: the relative strength to the FTSE100 is positive, but not that strong and there is further resistance above, giving a 1:1 risk/reward and lastly the P&F chart is showing a firm downtrend..as does the monthly in stage 4
however, according to the book, only the resistance would be a factor as well as the RS rising and showing more strength.
I'd like the RS to increase slightly and begin rising and I may use this as a first one to watch and see. Certainly not the best.
As an early voyeur to this method, I can see that there will be many many more opportunities than P&F which could test the patience of a saint sometimes
(2014-02-16, 12:24 AM)malaguti Wrote: Here's one to watch possibly, chart for Anglo American and its sector
Sector is in stage 1 and about to break out, and Anglo is forming a double bottom with rising volume. Three negatives: the relative strength to the FTSE100 is positive, but not that strong and there is further resistance above, giving a 1:1 risk/reward and lastly the P&F chart is showing a firm downtrend..as does the monthly in stage 4
however, according to the book, only the resistance would be a factor as well as the RS rising and showing more strength.
I'd like the RS to increase slightly and begin rising and I may use this as a first one to watch and see. Certainly not the best.
As an early voyeur to this method, I can see that there will be many many more opportunities than P&F which could test the patience of a saint sometimes
Good stuff malaguti, it's definitely a sector to watch currently as for example the basic material stocks in the US broke out this week and are now the strongest they've been for the last few years. See attached sector percentage of stocks above their 150 day MAs chart below which I posted in the market breadth extra thread earlier.
One thing I'd suggest to adjust on your charts if you can, is the addition of the 52 week MA on the relative performance indicator, as this is what I refer to as the "zero line" as it's what's used for the Mansfield RS zero line, which you can see in the examples in the book. It's very important to have this, as I've found the angle of the relative performance 52 week MA is very important in determining whether a Stage 2A breakout will be successful or not i.e. the strongest breakouts occur when the relative performance line breaks above a flattening or rising 52 week MA (zero line), and I also recently emailed Stan about it, and he confirmed what I thought. So I'd recommend that you include it as I think it's an important component of the method.
(2014-02-16, 12:24 AM)malaguti Wrote: Here's one to watch possibly, chart for Anglo American and its sector
Sector is in stage 1 and about to break out, and Anglo is forming a double bottom with rising volume. Three negatives: the relative strength to the FTSE100 is positive, but not that strong and there is further resistance above, giving a 1:1 risk/reward and lastly the P&F chart is showing a firm downtrend..as does the monthly in stage 4
however, according to the book, only the resistance would be a factor as well as the RS rising and showing more strength.
I'd like the RS to increase slightly and begin rising and I may use this as a first one to watch and see. Certainly not the best.
As an early voyeur to this method, I can see that there will be many many more opportunities than P&F which could test the patience of a saint sometimes
Good stuff malaguti, it's definitely a sector to watch currently as for example the basic material stocks in the US broke out this week and are now the strongest they've been for the last few years. See attached sector percentage of stocks above their 150 day MAs chart below which I posted in the market breadth extra thread earlier.
One thing I'd suggest to adjust on your charts if you can, is the addition of the 52 week MA on the relative performance indicator, as this is what I refer to as the "zero line" as it's what's used for the Mansfield RS zero line, which you can see in the examples in the book. It's very important to have this, as I've found the angle of the relative performance 52 week MA is very important in determining whether a Stage 2A breakout will be successful or not i.e. the strongest breakouts occur when the relative performance line breaks above a flattening or rising 52 week MA (zero line), and I also recently emailed Stan about it, and he confirmed what I thought. So I'd recommend that you include it as I think it's an important component of the method.
(2014-02-15, 09:54 PM)Tryst Wrote: Hi, IsaTrader, what is your take on HAIK? Is that classified as a stage 2A breakout?
Hi Tryst, HAIK broke out into Stage 2A on Jan 3rd imo at 23.50, on the daily close above the tight range that formed from July to the end of 2013. Volume on the breakout day was only average, but was followed by a strong volume day the next day of almost 4x the average, and it closed the week on just under 2x the weekly average and a cross above the relative performance zero line.
It's now made it's first continuation above previous resistance highs and it's moved above it's 30 month MA for the first time in a number of years although that's still declining currently. So although made it's first continuation I'd still consider it to be in Stage 2A (which means early in Stage 2).
It would be good to see more volume though, as half way through the month it's still under it's 12 month average volume, so ideally that would be 2x or more by the end of the month to show it's getting the necessary interest to fuel outperformance. So for example you want see 3x or more average volume on the breakout day, then at least 2x average volume on the breakout week, and then finally at least 2x on the monthly chart for extra confirmation that the stock is getting some interest. As volume is critical to finding the superstocks.
(2014-02-15, 09:54 PM)Tryst Wrote: Hi, IsaTrader, what is your take on HAIK? Is that classified as a stage 2A breakout?
Hi Tryst, HAIK broke out into Stage 2A on Jan 3rd imo at 23.50, on the daily close above the tight range that formed from July to the end of 2013. Volume on the breakout day was only average, but was followed by a strong volume day the next day of almost 4x the average, and it closed the week on just under 2x the weekly average and a cross above the relative performance zero line.
It's now made it's first continuation above previous resistance highs and it's moved above it's 30 month MA for the first time in a number of years although that's still declining currently. So although made it's first continuation I'd still consider it to be in Stage 2A (which means early in Stage 2).
It would be good to see more volume though, as half way through the month it's still under it's 12 month average volume, so ideally that would be 2x or more by the end of the month to show it's getting the necessary interest to fuel outperformance. So for example you want see 3x or more average volume on the breakout day, then at least 2x average volume on the breakout week, and then finally at least 2x on the monthly chart for extra confirmation that the stock is getting some interest. As volume is critical to finding the superstocks.
