(This post was last modified: 2021-08-08, 10:13 AM by pcabc.)
RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis
US & Sectors
My S&P500 versus the Russell 3000 chart is showing a divergence between the A/D line and the S&P500. Note, as I rarely go and check my manually entered list of constituents the Rusell3000 claim is rather approximate. IT is clear that the S&P500 and the A/D line (red on the A/D plot) has diverged. However worth looking at https://www.marketinout.com/chart/market...cline-line where there are plots for the NYSE A/D line and the Russell 3000 one. My Russell 3000 plot and the one on that site look similar. But notice that the NYSE A/D line is NOT diverging.
However, my scoring system does not rely solely on the A/D line. % stocks against the 50 and 200 day EMAs have been steadily declining and we are not seeing anything exciting in new highs minus new lows.
Note on the % of stocks above the MA, I'm using the 50 and 200 day EMAs. Value for the 50 day EMA is notably different, but then different types of MAs are being used, so apples and oranges are being compared. I don't think we will see anything on new-highs minus new-lows - as that data is based on new highs in the last year and if most cryptos made highs back in March / April we won't see any indication on new-highs minus new lows until those highs have either been exceeded, or until March / April 22. I note my medium term score has strengthened recently but the long term score has dropped below zero. Of course, this was developed for stocks and although logical does not have as much back testing as I would like. So whether this is meaningful is a question to ask. Quite difficult to identify why my long term score has dropped rather than strengthened, a lot of parameters go into it. But if the market is strengthening it ought to move upward shortly.
(2021-08-08, 05:00 PM)pcabc Wrote: Interesting post. My breadth chart is below:
Note on the % of stocks above the MA, I'm using the 50 and 200 day EMAs. Value for the 50 day EMA is notably different, but then different types of MAs are being used, so apples and oranges are being compared. I don't think we will see anything on new-highs minus new-lows - as that data is based on new highs in the last year and if most cryptos made highs back in March / April we won't see any indication on new-highs minus new lows until those highs have either been exceeded, or until March / April 22. I note my medium term score has strengthened recently but the long term score has dropped below zero. Of course, this was developed for stocks and although logical does not have as much back testing as I would like. So whether this is meaningful is a question to ask. Quite difficult to identify why my long term score has dropped rather than strengthened, a lot of parameters go into it. But if the market is strengthening it ought to move upward shortly.
I don't know about your scoring, as is something custom that you've created. But otherwise looks similar in that short term breadth thrust in the cryptos, with improvement in the longer measures as they start to come out of the lower zone. So bullish breadth signals from what is considered the best area. i.e. coming out of the lower zone strongly after of long period in it.
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
(2021-08-08, 05:05 PM)isatrader Wrote: I don't know about your scoring, as is something custom that you've created. But otherwise looks similar in that short term breadth thrust in the cryptos, with improvement in the longer measures as they start to come out of the lower zone. So bullish breadth signals from what is considered the best area. i.e. coming out of the lower zone strongly after of long period in it.
Isa,
thanks. My scoring system is a sort of 'weight of evidence' approach over several time periods. Too many parameters go into it to remember. and too many for a simple explanation. I was just explaining the difference in some parameters. Yes, short and medium turn strength is increasing, and if we both notice this from our different approaches then that, for myself, adds confidence. I'm unsure why my longer term score has not picked up. It must shortly unless cryptos drop back down.
RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis
Breadth overview
Generally negative except for XETRA and Cryptos. Maybe I ought to try to measure the correlation between the S&P500, BTC and Gold? Though I'm not really motivated to do so right now.
Major indices:
US sectors:
UK sectors:
Commodities:
Miscellaneous:
I made a note today that my virtual portfolio is not doing well as another indication that the market breadth is not strong. That is a small sample and based on subjectively how good I am picking stocks. However, it is a further data point.
