[komputeridiat]

Hello, I'm hoping to get some feedback on my screening for potential breakouts
These are 4 tickers from Recreational Products/Leisure:
YETI, BC, PII, and FOXF.

They all feature above and rising 200 days MA and >0 relative strength to SP500. The trendlines for all approximately 1-2+ years.  

Yeti has technically already broke out with some weird volumes. Weekly volumes don't seem that impressive and seems false, however daily volume was more than 2x the prior 5 days at 2nd day of breakout.

I'm seeing potential breakout for BC, PII, and FOXF at $66.125, $105.62, $90.125 respectively and stop losses at 18, 16, 14 percents respectively.

YETI if bought at 41.5ish can be stop lossed at 20 percent.

While they all seem great, PII seems the best out of all.

What do you think?

Hi komputeridiat, welcome to the site. I moved the post to the Beginners Questions thread

YETI is on my focus list currently as I did a big post on twitter at the weekend as it has strong fundamentals as well as a reasonable technical pattern and is in one of the strongest groups, that's been strengthening consistently for the last month or so.

Here's a post I did on twitter that has more details: https://twitter.com/stageanalysis/status...4715851778

The breakout point would be a close above 45.18 imo, but I'd want to see a breakout on increased volume.

From a Stage Analysis perspective YETI is the strongest, as it's making new all time highs with no overhead resistance, whereas PII is still just under the YTD high and still -30% or so below it's all time high. Relative strength is weaker also, but it is making a good looking cup and handle pattern. BC is similar, but closer to its highs, and FOXF is the group leader with the strongest IBD composite ranting, with YETI the second in the group.
 
As they are all quite similar patterns in the same group I would do a relative strength comparison of the stocks to each other, so you can use the Mansfield Relative Strength, and change the comparison to each stock, and then see which is the strongest, and you would simply wait for a proper entry point.

Thanks for the feedback.

Why do you think it's 45.18 for Yeti's breakout? It already crossed the trendline albeit the volume is a bit weak.

None of the other three has t broken yet, so if it did, wouldn't they all be potentially good stop buys?

Although Stan did value RS, he did not really mention what should be the actual values rather than their trends. He even said that the improving negative RS can also be considered a buy if it crosses the 0 line. However, he did mention the downside risk being important if all else being equal, stocks should be bought with a < 15% sell stop. Wouldn't FOXF and PII be great for that?

[isatrader]

Why do you think it's 45.18 for Yeti's breakout? It already crossed the trendline albeit the volume is a bit weak.

It's forming what's known as a base on base pattern, as it broke out from a cup pattern without forming a handle, and so looks to be forming a high handle currently, and so the new breakout level is the pivot high of the handle.

None of the other three has t broken yet, so if it did, wouldn't they all be potentially good stop buys?

They are all good potential setups in a strong group. And so any maybe a good potential buy if the volume comes in the breakout.

Although Stan did value RS, he did not really mention what should be the actual values rather than their trends. He even said that the improving negative RS can also be considered a buy if it crosses the 0 line. However, he did mention the downside risk being important if all else being equal, stocks should be bought with a < 15% sell stop. Wouldn't FOXF and PII be great for that?

It depends which method you are using. The Trader method or the Investor method. As both has different stop loss requirements. But yes FOXF and PII have tighter potential stop loss positions currently as they are closer to their 50 day MAs.

[komputeridiat]

Consumer Cyclical: Specialty Retails

I have another set. These are the most exciting for me because most of them are either in early stages of Stage 2 or late stage 1s with a potential late stage 4 that has the potential of swinging into a stage 2 imo.

MUSA Stage 2 Above Rising MA with declining trend of -4.17% at 260 days. RS above SPX with an approximate 7% sell stop risk. Potential breakout at $117.67

ORLY Stage 2 Above Rising MA with declining trend of -4.6% at 240 days. RS above SPX with an approximate 6% sell stop risk. Potential breakout at $433.63

My only gripe with the above stage 2s are their expensive prices. However, they do feature no overhead resistance.

HOME Stage 1 Above non-rising MA with declining trend of -23.27% at 260 days. RS above SPX with an approximate 33% sell stop risk. Potential breakout at $8.125

SFIX Stage 1 Above rising MA with declining trend of -11.09% at 385 days. RS above SPX with an approximate 20% sell stop risk. Potential breakout at $28.64

Weird breakout with Day volume breakout, but average week volume breakout. The breakout didn't pan out and dropped.

TCS Stage 1 Above non-rising MA with declining trend of -17.31% at 260 days. RS above SPX with an approximate 16.7% sell stop risk. Potential breakout at $4.43

BGFV Stage 1 Above non-rising MA with declining trend of -66.11% at 760 days. RS above SPX with an approximate 39% sell stop risk. Potential breakout at $2.92

This one is the most exciting to me due to its volume on 9 July 2020. It was at the highest ever in its history with 37.255 million shares exchanged with average 3 months volume at 1.40M. That's insane!! Today's volume is at 0.7 million. There is a big story brewing behind this stock and I don't know if all of the short squeeze just happened on the same day, which would be too large of a coincidence imo.

HIBB Stage 1 Above non-rising MA with declining trend of 1.24% at 1085 days. RS above SPX with an approximate 67% sell stop risk. Potential breakout at $29.2

REAL Stage 1 Above non-rising MA with declining trend of -4.68% at 260 days. RS below SPX and declining with an approximate 21% sell stop risk. Potential breakout at $15.25.

Although it has a declining RS at the moment, it did have above and rising RS earlier in July. The swings may mean that it is consolidating. Not a buy, but something to keep an eye out for.

PRTY Stage 4 Below non-rising MA with declining trend of -29.71% at 180 days. RS below SPX with an approximate 81% sell stop risk. Potential breakout at $2.63.

This is just to keep an eye out for. The declining MA is consolidating, so it can swing a bit into stage 1 for a short duration before its breakout or downs. It seems to be very late into its stage 4 so there may be some potential a few months down the line.

I welcome feedback!

[marry123]

Hi,

Do you mind some quick thoughts on WFT.TO in terms of proper entry? There are red flags right now:  below average volume for weeks as the stock keeps running higher; it has not really formed much of a base from its bottom only 4 months back; the stock price vs spx line is still in a downtrend and the 30 ma is still not in an uptrend ; however in 2011 the stock fell more than 50%  and also did not form much of a base before screaming much higher from bottom once it broke resistance). Resistance here is around $62.

Thank you for your input.

[isatrader]

Just a heads up, but I hoping to have the first Stage Analysis video course available at some point this week on Udemy.com. Subject to it passing their review process. It went through initial review last week, and I just had to make a minor amend to meet their guidelines for marketing this website on it. As you are only allowed to do that in the final video. So it was resubmitted on the 31st, and so fingers crossed it will be available this week to people to purchase.

It's a 3.5 hour course that runs through multiple real examples of each of the four Stages in detail, and also the ideal entry points for both the investor and trader methods.

I hope people enjoy it, and by purchasing it you will help to support this website.

But in the meantime, until it's ready to go live. You can watch the free 30 minute preview of the course here:
Learn Stock Trading & Investing Techniques – Stage Analysis

I think the video quality is set to a max of 720p currently until it's approved. But I'll request it goes up to 1080p HD quality once it's live.

[malaguti]

Just a heads up, but I hoping to have the first Stage Analysis video course available at some point this week on Udemy.com. Subject to it passing their review process. It went through initial review last week, and I just had to make a minor amend to meet their guidelines for marketing this website on it. As you are only allowed to do that in the final video. So it was resubmitted on the 31st, and so fingers crossed it will be available this week to people to purchase.

It's a 3.5 hour course that runs through multiple real examples of each of the four Stages in detail, and also the ideal entry points for both the investor and trader methods.

I hope people enjoy it, and by purchasing it you will help to support this website.

But in the meantime, until it's ready to go live. You can watch the free 30 minute preview of the course here:
Learn Stock Trading & Investing Techniques – Stage Analysis

I think the video quality is set to a max of 720p currently until it's approved. But I'll request it goes up to 1080p HD quality once it's live.

I love it, i'd never heard of Udemy..what portion of the cost goes to you out if interest?
Hopefully its a good margin for the time you clearly have to put into producing something as polished. Also is there any policy on copyright, given you are laying out the foundation of the book?

[isatrader]

Just a heads up, but I hoping to have the first Stage Analysis video course available at some point this week on Udemy.com. Subject to it passing their review process. It went through initial review last week, and I just had to make a minor amend to meet their guidelines for marketing this website on it. As you are only allowed to do that in the final video. So it was resubmitted on the 31st, and so fingers crossed it will be available this week to people to purchase.

It's a 3.5 hour course that runs through multiple real examples of each of the four Stages in detail, and also the ideal entry points for both the investor and trader methods.

I hope people enjoy it, and by purchasing it you will help to support this website.

But in the meantime, until it's ready to go live. You can watch the free 30 minute preview of the course here:
Learn Stock Trading & Investing Techniques – Stage Analysis

I think the video quality is set to a max of 720p currently until it's approved. But I'll request it goes up to 1080p HD quality once it's live.

I love it, i'd never heard of Udemy..what portion of the cost goes to you out if interest?
Hopefully its a good margin for the time you clearly have to put into producing something as polished. Also is there any policy on copyright, given you are laying out the foundation of the book?

Thanks. I'll get 50% of full price sales minus tax, but they do regular big discounts which I'll get a bigger percentage of. But will be less overall than the full price sales.

It's something I've been working on since last November, so has taken ages to put together as I was aiming to do a much bigger course, but due to the time it took to put together, I'm going to split it into smaller courses. So aiming to do a course focusing more on short term trading techniques next and maybe a market breadth one, and have other ideas too. But will see how this one is received first.

In terms of copyright. The only direct material from the book is the quotes, which is fine. Everything else is examples that I've done myself. So there won't be any issues there as it's all unique material and not based on the book except the concept of the four Stages. But that's already been in other books too, like Mark Minervini's books for example.

[isatrader]

Just to let everyone know that the first Stage Analysis video course is now live. Which you can see by clicking on the following link:

Learn Stock Trading & Investing Techniques – Stage Analysis

I hope you all enjoy it, and the sales will help to support this website, and if you do purchase the course then please take the time to rate and review the course, as it will help it to be found on the Udemy site by others.