(2020-01-20, 05:03 PM)alphatech Wrote: One perfect example is TSLA. Based on my knowledge the stop should be set around 327. It is right now at 510. that is about $183 difference. I saw this stock going down or up in a crazy way and to be honest, it will kill me if it would stop at 327 cancelling all my profits. It is on Stage 2 with no stage issues based to Stan. I'm also more on the trader side. NVDIA and AMD look like this graph as well.
By the way, I subscribe to your youtube videos fantastic job. Is the application that you are using calculate Mansfield or is something that you created?
Just my observation. If you buy in the above schenario at 510 and your stop is at 327 you are 36% above that stop loss so you could loose that much of your postition. In practice more with spreads, tradings costs and FX if applicable. So you need, in your scans, to bear in mind how far away the stop loss is.
(2020-01-19, 09:58 PM)hummigbird Wrote: I'd be curious to know how people are putting stops on their stocks now, with the market going so crazy. There are pretty wide gaps between stock price and 30 week MA. If I use that as the price point, the loss would be pretty significant. I'd rather take profits sooner. What are others doing?
If you concerned about giving back profits and are moving to trader mode then you can use the trendline technique from the book if it's valid. i.e. 3 touch points of the swing lows and put you stop loss below that, and ideally the 50 day MA as well if possible imo. Otherwise another technique is to take some profits .i.e. half off if the stock has had some outsized gains, and then you can be more comfortable siting through a significant pullback.
Or my own techniques are if a stock drops by more than 2x it's 52 week Average True Range from a high, then I'll start to be more aggressive with my stop loss. Or one of my favourite techniques is using Stage Analysis on multiple time frames. So when a stock is running really hot, then I'll gradually move down the time frames to the 2 hour chart, and then I would let it run as longs as it stays in Stage 2 on that time frame and sell on a failed continuation attempt or Stage 4 breakdown on that timeframe for example.
I've attached the daily AMD, NVDA, QCOM charts for you with trendlines drawn on.
I hope that helps
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
That's very helpful, thank you. I need to get better charts. I'm only using what is available to me at Fidelity, which is limited. I appreciate seeing your charts, particular with stocks that I have been looking at for a while now.
I would love your opinion with BABA. It looks like that it is still on Stage 2 but due to the news of the virus in China, it is going down. From your past experience, would it be still a buy, would you wait a little bit more before you buy or sell it?
(2020-01-24, 08:08 PM)alphatech Wrote: I would love your opinion with BABA. It looks like that it is still on Stage 2 but due to the news of the virus in China, it is going down. From your past experience, would it be still a buy, would you wait a little bit more before you buy or sell it?
Its still in stage2 Alphatec, yes its pulling back and if anything is looking to retest the previous breakout of all time highs at 210
i wouldnt buy until its done retracing and broken its new all time high of 230 and it seems very early to think of selling. you could use the trader approach and manage your stop using the 10period MA if you were oncerned (and in it already)
this weeks activity does seem to have negated the last 3weeks of positive activity so it does look as though it has further to go. but i still think its a little early. this week has seen a lot of profit taking in the broader market but seems to have recovered
if you go down a timeframe, the daily is stage 3, so we could look at this in a few days to see where it still is..rather exit on a proper signal
(2020-01-24, 08:08 PM)alphatech Wrote: I would love your opinion with BABA. It looks like that it is still on Stage 2 but due to the news of the virus in China, it is going down. From your past experience, would it be still a buy, would you wait a little bit more before you buy or sell it?
Its still in stage2 Alphatec, yes its pulling back and if anything is looking to retest the previous breakout of all time highs at 210
i wouldnt buy until its done retracing and broken its new all time high of 230 and it seems very early to think of selling. you could use the trader approach and manage your stop using the 10period MA if you were oncerned (and in it already)
this weeks activity does seem to have negated the last 3weeks of positive activity so it does look as though it has further to go. but i still think its a little early. this week has seen a lot of profit taking in the broader market but seems to have recovered
if you go down a timeframe, the daily is stage 3, so we could look at this in a few days to see where it still is..rather exit on a proper signal
Hi Alphatec, i wanted to follow up on this as BABA has dropped today. It has gapped down and is approx 3.5% lower than yesterday
going back to stage analysis, its still in stage 2. however, the low of today is just about where the trader approach (using 10 wk ma) would have placed its stop.
It has also gapped down now to within its support area, I've highlighted on the chart.
Support could give, and could likely fall further to the 30week MA, support could hold and likely find resistance up ahead
should the low of 198 be taken out, you have 2 good reasons to get out. However hopefully it finds support and makes a rally.
I'm still in my stock which has dropped 2% today..pain in the butt I know. however keep calm, we have to take losses and its about time for the market to be dropping. Just thought i'd give an update, if you are in it, im sure you're feeling pretty rattled. good luck
malaguti, this is the kind of feedback that I was looking for, thank you.
>>this weeks activity does seem to have negated the last 3 weeks of positive activity so it does look as though it has further to go.
Can you please explain a little bit more what do you mean by this statement?
(2020-01-28, 05:25 PM)alphatech Wrote: malaguti, this is the kind of feedback that I was looking for, thank you.
>>this weeks activity does seem to have negated the last 3 weeks of positive activity so it does look as though it has further to go.
Can you please explain a little bit more what do you mean by this statement?
Yes, if you have a look at the chart, i've just highlighted the one bar that gaps down and takes out three weeks in one go. I think its called an engulfing bar, basically it looked like there was little support (you normally get a wick at the bottom, suggesting there is buying pressure still. in this bar there is practically none
the gap down also doesn't help.
what did help was the area of support. im very conscious that there is never a single line of support, its more of a bar/rectangle/area of support. in the one i drew yesterday, remarkably its completely contained in todays action. im a genius
no really, im just looking for where support might come in to play.
so now going back to the action, its pretty clear, a bounce today, thats great, but we want to see price now recovering past the resistance line. it could be that it will look to fill the gap and then drop, but lets not predict. macd is dropping, but not crossed yet, so still relatively buillish.
take a look at the SPY, that has come into support also off a rising trend line..remarkable how everything often follows suit
anyway, hope that helps
