[briansmith456]

NWC.TO to me seems OK as an entry now as it is just above the 30 EMA, and it is above the cloud. Volume is not great on weekly but beyond that do you see any reasons why this may not be a solid entry now? On the chart in red I drew the resistance line  but when you use the Weinstein method do you look at things like support, resistance lines? I know Stan looked at trendlines based on what he wrote in his book.

Thanks again for any comments on the attached chart.

Brian

[briansmith456]

EXE.TO (attached)  seems to be breaking out as the 30 ema weekly is rising and it has broken the long downtrend line. Volume was very large a few weeks back and it is above the cloud. Price is breaking above the SPX price line so wondering if I am missing anything in thinking this is a buy if it breaks above resistance at 8.32?

Thanks,
Brian

[isatrader]

EXE.TO (attached)  seems to be breaking out as the 30 ema weekly is rising and it has broken the long downtrend line. Volume was very large a few weeks back and it is above the cloud. Price is breaking above the SPX price line so wondering if I am missing anything in thinking this is a buy if it breaks above resistance at 8.32?

Thanks,
Brian

So in my opinion the Stage 2A breakout point was back in mid April, when it broke out from the the small raised Stage 1 base and moved through the cloud resistance zone. So the issue that I'd have with it at the current point is that it's extended from a level of support now as it's 3 times it's 52 week average true range (ATR) above it's simple 30 week moving average, and the most recent area of support. So the investor stop loss position would be quite extended if you bought at 8.32, so ideally you'd want it consolidate further and form a higher swing low before making that breakout, and giving the 30 week MA a chance to catch up. As distance to the stop loss position is a key consideration for any trade that you want to make, as you should never enter when it's extended from that point imo.

   

[briansmith456]

Thanks for pointing out the proper buy point and  it being extended now. I will wait to see if it comes back closer to the 30 ema to enter. Hopefully you can also provide a comment on NWC.TO.

Thanks again.

[briansmith456]

So in my opinion the Stage 2A breakout point was back in mid April, when it broke out from the the small raised Stage 1 base and moved through the cloud resistance zone. So the issue that I'd have with it at the current point is that it's extended from a level of support now as it's 3 times it's 52 week average true range (ATR) above it's simple 30 week moving average, and the most recent area of support. So the investor stop loss position would be quite extended if you bought at 8.32, so ideally you'd want it consolidate further and form a higher swing low before making that breakout, and giving the 30 week MA a chance to catch up. As distance to the stop loss position is a key consideration for any trade that you want to make, as you should never enter when it's extended from that point imo.

Can you please clarify, roughly, what is the MAXIMUM % away from the 30 ema that one should be on the weekly chart if buying a stock so as to not be too extended? I understand ideally you would want to buy right around the 30 EMA as the entry.

You note "stock is now extended "3 times it's 52 week average true range (ATR)"
What parameter (standard setting is 14) must I set the ATR indicator on the weekly chart to know that price is now 3 times 52 week avg ATR? Ie. how did you determine price is now 3 ties 52 week avg ATR? I have never  used the ATR before.

I have attached the chart showing weekly  ATR (setting at 14) but do not understand how to use it  to determine that price is now 3 times avg. 52 week ATR.

Thanks,
Brian

[isatrader]

NWC.TO to me seems OK as an entry now as it is just above the 30 EMA, and it is above the cloud. Volume is not great on weekly but beyond that do you see any reasons why this may not be a solid entry now? On the chart in red I drew the resistance line  but when you use the Weinstein method do you look at things like support, resistance lines? I know Stan looked at trendlines based on what he wrote in his book.

Thanks again for any comments on the attached chart.

Brian

NWC.TO is a trickier one, as it made a Stage 2A breakout attempt in December on more than 2x average weekly volume, and moved gradually higher for a three months, but the initial pullback was extreme, and on the heaviest monthly volume its had. So we'd normally put a red flag on moves like that, as pullbacks in the method should be on contracting volume, not expanding volume. As if you are seeing heavy volume on the pullback, then it's not normally a healthy sign. So following that it moved back into its base again, so a was a failed breakout, and then has been grinding a little higher nearer to the breakout level again, but is still below its 30 week sma currently. So if it was for me, I'd want to see a weekly close back above the top of the 2017 range. So a close above $31 with at least 2x the average weekly volume.

   

[briansmith456]

NWC.TO to me seems OK as an entry now as it is just above the 30 EMA, and it is above the cloud. Volume is not great on weekly but beyond that do you see any reasons why this may not be a solid entry now? On the chart in red I drew the resistance line  but when you use the Weinstein method do you look at things like support, resistance lines? I know Stan looked at trendlines based on what he wrote in his book.

Thanks again for any comments on the attached chart.

Brian

NWC.TO is a trickier one, as it made a Stage 2A breakout attempt in December on more than 2x average weekly volume, and moved gradually higher for a three months, but the initial pullback was extreme, and on the heaviest monthly volume its had. So we'd normally put a red flag on moves like that, as pullbacks in the method should be on contracting volume, not expanding volume. As if you are seeing heavy volume on the pullback, then it's not normally a healthy sign. So following that it moved back into its base again, so a was a failed breakout, and then has been grinding a little higher nearer to the breakout level again, but is still below its 30 week sma currently. So if it was for me, I'd want to see a weekly close back above the top of the 2017 range. So a close above $31 with at least 2x the average weekly volume.

Thanks for your insightful observations.

[isatrader]

Can you please clarify, roughly, what is the MAXIMUM % away from the 30 ema that one should be on the weekly chart if buying a stock so as to not be too extended? I understand ideally you would want to buy right around the 30 EMA as the entry.

You note "stock is now extended "3 times it's 52 week average true range (ATR)"
What parameter (standard setting is 14) must I set the ATR indicator on the weekly chart to know that price is now 3 times 52 week avg ATR? Ie. how did you determine price is now 3 ties 52 week avg ATR? I have never  used the ATR before.

I have attached the chart showing weekly  ATR (setting at 14) but do not understand how to use it  to determine that price is now 3 times avg. 52 week ATR.

Thanks,
Brian

I like to use the ATR with a 52 week setting. So change the Parameters setting to 52 if you'd like to use that, but any amount is acceptable really as it depends on your trading timescale as to what you should use. So 52 weeks is just my preferred setting for investor positions, as it's the average weekly price range of the stock from the last year.

I use a maximum of 2 times the 52 week Average True Range (ATR) from the stop loss position to determine if a stock is too extended or not for me. But as I said other people use their own settings, as mine are quite strict. All I would say is to be consistent.

To calculate the ATR distance. Take the current ATR amount shown on the chart. So for example if it's 0.78, and the price is 31, and the stop loss position would be 29, then 31 minus 29 = 2, and 2 divided by 0.78 = 2.56. So it would be at 2.56 times the weekly ATR. Which would mean it's above my maximum tolerance of 2 times the weekly ATR.