(2016-10-05, 02:55 PM)Smellypunks Wrote: Are gold stocks in a stage 3? It seems that 30w ave is flattening and maybe a neckline forming... If I am right I would expect a bounce off the neckline and then finally a breakdown.
Anyone else with a different take on gold stocks.
Yep, the breakdown yesterday puts Dollar Gold potentially into early Stage 3A if it closes the week below the 30 week MA. This doesn't however mean it will necessarily breakdown into Stage 4, as Stage 3 can go either way, and often will take many months to resolve.
I have a feeling we might well see gold down into the area show as a box. So 1200 to 1250 area. At which point it would be well below the 30w ave. So I am quite new to spotting stage 3 tops. You talk about taking months to resolve which is what I am hoping for. So the red line I have drawn is not the stage 3 neckline then? It seemed to have three touches before it broke down.
It looks like mid to late Stage 2 but with a lot of resistance from November 2015. According to the book, I imagine that Stan would say this is too late in Stage 2 and not good enough risk:reward.
I'd really appreciate any feedback about the chart/share and where you think it really is according to Stage Analysis.
(2016-10-05, 04:43 PM)Smellypunks Wrote: So looking at a gold stock I hold. Should I be looking for something like this. A bounce which helps to produce a neckline (green line).
Here's my own calculated gold miners / gold breadth chart. I've still got gold and silver ETF positions, but miners are all but gone.
(2016-10-05, 04:43 PM)Smellypunks Wrote: So looking at a gold stock I hold. Should I be looking for something like this. A bounce which helps to produce a neckline (green line).
It's one possibility, as it is a regular pattern of early Stage 3, but as I said before, it can go either way in Stage 3, and sometimes is merely a shakeout by larger players, and others drops off a cliff, whereas other times it consolidates for a year or more. Basically all it means is that the probability of the recent momentum phase being over is more likely than not, but that's not had any secondary confirmation yet, and likely won't for a while. So it's a time to be more cautious if you have open positions, and take a good look each to detemine their health.
So it might be a good idea to take an indepth look at all other individual gold stocks and determine their Stages, as that will give you better idea of which way the weight of evidence is learning towards. i.e. calculate the amount of stocks in each Stage and then work out the percentage in each, and then keep track of that.
Or for a rough guide use the Gold Miners Bullish Percent to help, as that indicates the percentage of Gold Miner stocks on a Point and Figure (P&F) Buy Signal using traditional scaling. So as you can see on the attached chart, that'd dropped from 100% on a P&F buy signal in July to only 25% on a P&F buy signal now.
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
When I set up a chart in the software I am looking up, I get different responses to the price relative to its 30 weeks MA, based on the period I choose, ie., 1yr, 2yrs, 3yrs, 5yrs, 10yrs etc.,
For example, when I look at LON:NTG with a 1yr chart, the price is above the MA (which is also improving).
If I look at any longer period, say, 2-3-5-10yrs, the MA is above the price.
In this case, what is the ideal period to look at? Should this even be happening?
Obviously, looking at the last 1yr of data, the MA is lower than price but which is reliable given that anything longer than 1yr says the opposite?
When I set up a chart in the software I am looking up, I get different responses to the price relative to its 30 weeks MA, based on the period I choose, ie., 1yr, 2yrs, 3yrs, 5yrs, 10yrs etc.,
For example, when I look at LON:NTG with a 1yr chart, the price is above the MA (which is also improving).
If I look at any longer period, say, 2-3-5-10yrs, the MA is above the price.
In this case, what is the ideal period to look at? Should this even be happening?
Obviously, looking at the last 1yr of data, the MA is lower than price but which is reliable given that anything longer than 1yr says the opposite?
Cheers and thanks.
No, that's not right at all. The MA should be the same whatever timescale you choose, so there's obviously a problem with the software you are using.
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
