[isatrader]

In kinda confused right now. Page 229 clearly says, that one should be on the look out for a stock that has had a substantial advance over the past year. Surely it can't advance significantly, while at the same time underperforming the market index, and be in a weak sector?

I agree it's a bit counterintuitive, but stocks can have significant advances, but still underperform if the market has been very strong at the same time. Personally, I don't short, as I find it very different to switch between long and short strategies. So I only focus on long trades. But one member on here - shaunattwood - is very good at shorting. So I'd recommend asking him.

[Joe725]

Hi, i'm pretty new to actually executing any trade have read the book a few times. I'm watching DCC PLC, i'm thinking this could be a good buy, any advice would be great!

[Haugaard]

Joe725 pid='15680' dateline='1587124227']Hi, i'm pretty new to actually executing any trade have read the book a few times. I'm watching DCC PLC, i'm thinking this could be a good buy, any advice would be great!

Hi Joe, first and foremost; welcome to the site.

I hope that this is the right graph, otherwise you'd have to correct me. 

This is not a good buy if you're going by the rules of Stage Analysis, since the stock is heavily in a stage 4 decline. As Stan says, you should never hold a stock, that is under its 30w MA, especially if the MA is sloping down. Furthermore, the stock has been underperforming the SP500. Usually the biggest winners are over performing the SP500 from the get go. Also, there is great resistance above, which means a breakout is unlikely.

You should ideally look to buy stocks on a breakout, as marked by the arrow.

To be honest, i'd actually consider this to be a great short, with a buy-stop at just over 6000. As a rule of thumb, you should look for stocks above the 30w MA, and sell short the stocks trading below the 30w MA.

All the best, 
@marcushaugaard

   

[Joe725]

Hi, i'm pretty new to actually executing any trade have read the book a few times. I'm watching DCC PLC, i'm thinking this could be a good buy, any advice would be great!

Hi Joe, first and foremost; welcome to the site.

I hope that this is the right graph, otherwise you'd have to correct me. 

This is not a good buy if you're going by the rules of Stage Analysis, since the stock is heavily in a stage 4 decline. As Stan says, you should never hold a stock, that is under its 30w MA, especially if the MA is sloping down. Furthermore, the stock has been underperforming the SP500. Usually the biggest winners are over performing the SP500 from the get go. Also, there is great resistance above, which means a breakout is unlikely.

You should ideally look to buy stocks on a breakout, as marked by the arrow.

To be honest, i'd actually consider this to be a great short, with a buy-stop at just over 6000. As a rule of thump, you should look for stocks above the 30w MA, and sell short the stocks trading below the 30w MA.

All the best, 
@marcushaugaard

Hi thanks for that note. I have looked at Experian, how long does a stage 4 last for or is it all dependent on the stock as i know they can stay in stages for a while. It has dropped from what looked like Stag 2/3 downwards into a stage 4. However on my chart it is above its 30 MA (but below 50,100) the Mansfield is looking like it's going to recover. Also where would i draw my resistance, as it has previously broken out a year or so ago? Thanks, sorry for all the questions, it's one thing to read a book but finding it harder to put what i've learnt into practice!

[Haugaard]

Hi thanks for that note. I have looked at Experian, how long does a stage 4 last for or is it all dependent on the stock as i know they can stay in stages for a while. It has dropped from what looked like Stag 2/3 downwards into a stage 4. However on my chart it is above its 30 MA (but below 50,100) the Mansfield is looking like it's going to recover. Also where would i draw my resistance, as it has previously broken out a year or so ago? Thanks, sorry for all the questions, it's one thing to read a book but finding it harder to put what i've learnt into practice!

No problem, i'm always happy to help out.

I have to order some or your questions into notes, in order to better explain them.

- There is no specific timespan of a stage. A stage 4 can last from anywhere between a few days to multiple years. I all depends on price-movement. 

- I have noted, that you use a 50d MA and a 200d MA. The 30w MA Stan's referring to, translates into a 150d MA.

- I'm inclined to say that the main resistances are these two areas, as marked by the rectangle.

- Once agin, the stock is in stage 4, since it is trading under it's 30w MA. For buying in Stage Analysis, you should generally focus on breakouts, and therefore you should look to buy this stock, at the point of the arrow, given the volume increases as well.

Piece of advice:
- I would advice you to use a weekly graph, and the use the daily to narrow down the entry or exit.
- Since you are a beginner, try not to overcomplicate things. Don't use all the different MA's and other indicators. Focus on the 30w MA, the volume and the price movement.

All the best,
@marcushaugaard

   

[Joe725]

Thank you so much! Was a but hesitant to post at first! I have now narrowed down to the 5 day chart. Do you have the code for the 30 MA as i can't seem to find it on trading view?

[Haugaard]

Thank you so much! Was a but hesitant to post at first! I have now narrowed down to the 5 day chart. Do you have the code for the 30 MA as i can't seem to find it on trading view?

Always better to ask, chances are, we've all been through the same stage as you.

Not quite sure what you mean with 5 day chart? 5 trading days pr candle = 1w?

Just insert moving average and modify it to 30, when using weekly candles, and 150 when you're using 1 daily candles.

All the best,
@marcushaugaard

   

[pcabc]

ERCB - Xetra

I've only been running limited scans of late, so I've noticed this one a little late:
   

A bit of care needed if you want to get into this one.