Comparison of breadth based on my, Pcabc's initial pool of crypto's and Isatrader's larger pool
Given that Isatrader has been basing his breadth on a wider pool of crypto currencies than I used for my breadth calculations, and that he posted his pool consituents, I have calculated breadth based on his pool to see what differences there are. I've not quite replicated his pool as there are a few cryptos for which I do not have data.
Breadth based on my and Isa's pools side by side:
The differences are not major, but they are there. To make it more obvious I have overlaid the charts:
Here you an see both curves are double. Their shapes are quite similar, in general, but they are not quite the same. Using my scoring system this would result in differences in breadth scores and timings, not much, but a little different. I plot the outcome of my breadth scoring system as a bar jut below the index plot, and also at the bottom. Here are both bars plotted one against the other. In my system green means 'OK to buy', grey 'do nothing', yellow, consider selling trader positions', red 'condifer selling invester positions' and brown and black 'watch out, danger'.
As can be seen, the reds basically align, but there are differences in the other colour codes. File compression has meant that the greens are a little different in colour between the two bars, but that has no other meaning. So a different breadth dataset does make some difference in the result from my breadth scoring. One thing I have not done with Isa's pool is weed out and constituents that have poor quality date or only limited date. Though perhaps for young cryptos maybe that is real data!
Overall I don't think there are massive differences in the breadth results from the two datasets, but differences exist and on a scale of days might make a difference on whether I would consider buying or not.
Potentially beginning Phase C of the base, which you can see on the 4 hour chart with a potential Last Point of Support (LPS) and Test with follow through.
If it is Phase C, then the next expectation would be for a rally to develop, in which you would want to see a Sign of Strength in the price and volume behaviour. Otherwise risk of failure increases.
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
Potentially beginning Phase C of the base, which you can see on the 4 hour chart with a potential Last Point of Support (LPS) and Test with follow through.
If it is Phase C, then the next expectation would be for a rally to develop, in which you would want to see a Sign of Strength in the price and volume behaviour. Otherwise risk of failure increases.
For what its worth my crypto breadth chart is fairly negative at the moment. Whether the 'black' danger warning, which was developed against the NYSE and the 1987 crash is relevant or justified is debatable. I ought to consider whether I dip a toe in these markets. When there is a strong sign of climbing out the pullback would be the time.
(2021-08-07, 12:34 PM)isatrader Wrote: Added some more Ethereum as this months add on buy to my crypto pension account.
Updated weightings of the portfolio are:
Ethereum: 38.2%
Bitcoin: 19.0%
Cardano: 17.8%
Ripple: 16.8%
Dogecoin: 5.5%
BitcoinCash: 1.4%
Litecoin: 1.3%
I'm intending to take some positions shortly, dependent on when my breath chart indicates things are positive. It was a week ago but breadth (my calcs) have fallen back a little. Taking a while for the account to open.
Percentage of Crypto Currencies above their Moving Averages breadth charts
Percentage Above their 20 day MA: 83.89% (+9.40%)
Percentage Above their 50 day MA: 97.99% (+2.68%)
Percentage Above their 150 day MA: 74.50% (+15.04%)
Percentage Above their 200 day MA: 72.60% (+12.60%)
Average: 82.24% (Stage 2 in upper zone)
Continued strength in the cryptos this week with the medium and long term measures rising strongly and both now firmly in the upper zone, which is Stage 2 from a breadth perspective.
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
