Economic Charts
#1
During the Q&A with Weinstein last month, Stan confirmed that Stage Analysis can be used on economic data. However, he said that as it is lagging it shouldn't be used as part of our "weight of evidence". So I'm starting this thread for a place to put the charts based on the economic data such as house prices and employment rates etc.

I did a post showing the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index, the 20 year US Non-Farm Payrolls chart, and Unemployment rate back in April here: http://stageanalysis.net/forum/showthrea...594#pid594, which showed that the US fundamental data was improving and that housing had moved into early Stage 2A, which has continued to improve since then. So today I want to show the UK Halifax House Price Index charts (non seasonally adjusted), as it's of particular interest to me living in the UK.

Attached are two charts, one long term that shows data back to 1983 and the second chart a closer view of the last eight years, which shows that the UK housing market has also moved into early Stage 2A in the last few months.

To look at the data yourself, here's the link: http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media1...x_page.asp


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isatrader

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#2
Attached is the updated UK Halifax House Price Index charts (non seasonally adjusted)


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isatrader

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#3
I last posted the Margin Debt charts here: http://stageanalysis.net/forum/showthrea...563#pid563 at the end of April. So attached is the updated charts.


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isatrader

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#4
I thought the following charts pertaining to the US economy from and article over at Zero Hedge are interesting. Please bear in mind they are a few months old so there is a bigger lag effect.

Not being able to put a 30 week moving average on them I think we would have to guess they are between a stage 3 top and possibly a 4A breakdown in the case of GDP.


   


The end game for QE when it finally arrives is going to be very interesting.
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#5
Attached is the updated UK Halifax House Price Index charts (non seasonally adjusted).

July's further increase of £1,831 on the average UK house prices has taken it above the 2010 high, and so I'm upgrading my previous Stage rating from Stage 2A to Stage 2. Attached is the monthly chart.


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isatrader

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#6
Attached is the updated monthly UK Halifax House Price Index charts which had a pullback in August by -£1917 to an average of £170,098

I've included the seasonally adjusted chart this month as well as the usual non-seasonally adjusted chart.


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isatrader

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#7
Attached is the updated monthly UK Halifax House Price Index charts (non seasonally adjusted) which rose in September by £810 to an average of £170,908 and continues it's Stage 2 advance.

Also included is the seasonally adjusted chart. See attached.


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isatrader

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#8
Attached is the updated monthly UK Halifax House Price Index charts (non seasonally adjusted and seasonally adjusted charts) which rose again in November and continues it's Stage 2 advance.


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isatrader

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