US Stocks - Watchlist and Discussion
#25
GNW - Genworth Financial (Repeated in the investor watch list thread)

I like this one so much that I had to mark up everything I see in this chart. There is a slight negative with it which you will see. Just one other thing, it's a low priced stock just coming into the price range of the radars of the institutional investors as far as I'm aware. Having said that it does look like some big money has been accumulating for a while now. The powerful cup with handle pattern was identified in markets by the legendary William O'Neil. Many stocks go onto make big gains breaking out of these patterns as people who have read O'Neil's How to Make Money in Stocks will know.

       
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#26
(03-06-2013, 06:11 AM)goodtyneguy Wrote: GNW - Genworth Financial (Repeated in the investor watch list thread)

I like this one so much that I had to mark up everything I see in this chart. There is a slight negative with it which you will see. Just one other thing, it's a low priced stock just coming into the price range of the radars of the institutional investors as far as I'm aware. Having said that it does look like some big money has been accumulating for a while now. The powerful cup with handle pattern was identified in markets by the legendary William O'Neil. Many stocks go onto make big gains breaking out of these patterns as people who have read O'Neil's How to Make Money in Stocks will know.

Hi goodtyneguy, I thought I'd do a mark up on your pick as I noticed you've got the Stage 2A point in the wrong place imo. As GNW actually went to Stage 2A in early December 2012, after completing a seven month Stage 1 base, that carved out a head and shoulders pattern. Which is harder to see on the standard scale chart, so I've used the logarithmic scale so that it's clearer.

I have it currently as in it's first Stage 2 consolidation phase at the resistance zone from the 2012 high. And it's done well so far, as it's moved 42% to yesterday's close, since the 2A breakout point, even though the volume has only been average.

You have identified the longer term Stage 1 pattern, which is where people using the investor method would become much more interested, as it would be clear of the initial resistance that might have put them off at the Stage 2A breakout point in December, and also the 30 week MA is now trending higher, with strong relative performance versus the S&P 500 since the breakout.

So I just wanted to highlight that for you, so that you don't miss some of early Stage 2A stocks when you are doing your visual scans of the charts. Smile But for the trader method, where you've identified is ideal, if it makes a continuation move. As people using the trader method should do something like 80% of their buying on continuation moves of stocks already in Stage 2, with a strongly rising 30 week MA and good relative performance since the initial Stage 2 breakout.

One thing I've noticed on your daily chart is that you don't use the 200 day MA? This is a crucial component I've found for identifying the Stage 2A breakout point, as if a stock trades above a swing high and is above the 200 day MA as well, then it's very likely to be in early Stage 2. Which then takes you back to the weekly chart to check what the 30 week MA shape is like. i.e. if flat or rising, then it's a go. But if the 30 week is still falling then there's no entry allowed and you'll often see the stock make a swing high and pullback - as you can see in early 2012 on the weekly chart.


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isatrader

Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
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#27
Here's the tables of the today's early breakouts and breakdowns in the NYSE and Nasdaq markets to look through for any potential Weinstein picks.

NYSE

       

Nasdaq

       
isatrader

Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
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#28
(03-06-2013, 10:51 AM)isatrader Wrote:
(03-06-2013, 06:11 AM)goodtyneguy Wrote: GNW - Genworth Financial (Repeated in the investor watch list thread)

I like this one so much that I had to mark up everything I see in this chart. There is a slight negative with it which you will see. Just one other thing, it's a low priced stock just coming into the price range of the radars of the institutional investors as far as I'm aware. Having said that it does look like some big money has been accumulating for a while now. The powerful cup with handle pattern was identified in markets by the legendary William O'Neil. Many stocks go onto make big gains breaking out of these patterns as people who have read O'Neil's How to Make Money in Stocks will know.

Hi goodtyneguy, I thought I'd do a mark up on your pick as I noticed you've got the Stage 2A point in the wrong place imo. As GNW actually went to Stage 2A in early December 2012, after completing a seven month Stage 1 base, that carved out a head and shoulders pattern. Which is harder to see on the standard scale chart, so I've used the logarithmic scale so that it's clearer.

I have it currently as in it's first Stage 2 consolidation phase at the resistance zone from the 2012 high. And it's done well so far, as it's moved 42% to yesterday's close, since the 2A breakout point, even though the volume has only been average.

You have identified the longer term Stage 1 pattern, which is where people using the investor method would become much more interested, as it would be clear of the initial resistance that might have put them off at the Stage 2A breakout point in December, and also the 30 week MA is now trending higher, with strong relative performance versus the S&P 500 since the breakout.

So I just wanted to highlight that for you, so that you don't miss some of early Stage 2A stocks when you are doing your visual scans of the charts. Smile But for the trader method, where you've identified is ideal, if it makes a continuation move. As people using the trader method should do something like 80% of their buying on continuation moves of stocks already in Stage 2, with a strongly rising 30 week MA and good relative performance since the initial Stage 2 breakout.

One thing I've noticed on your daily chart is that you don't use the 200 day MA? This is a crucial component I've found for identifying the Stage 2A breakout point, as if a stock trades above a swing high and is above the 200 day MA as well, then it's very likely to be in early Stage 2. Which then takes you back to the weekly chart to check what the 30 week MA shape is like. i.e. if flat or rising, then it's a go. But if the 30 week is still falling then there's no entry allowed and you'll often see the stock make a swing high and pullback - as you can see in early 2012 on the weekly chart.

and just when you think you've cracked it. Sad
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#29
You're doing really well after only three months or so. There's a lot to consider, and you'll notice from a lot of my early posts on t2w that I was doing a similar thing, and it wasn't until I got March 2012 GTA and dissected that that I really started to clarify the Stages. Hopefully we can do a similar thing on here too, and create our own study guide of the method around the book's chapters.
isatrader

Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
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#30
Here's the tables of the today's early breakouts and breakdowns in the NYSE and Nasdaq markets to look through for any potential Weinstein picks.

NYSE

       

Nasdaq

       
isatrader

Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
Reply
#31
(03-06-2013, 06:40 PM)isatrader Wrote: You're doing really well after only three months or so. There's a lot to consider, and you'll notice from a lot of my early posts on t2w that I was doing a similar thing, and it wasn't until I got March 2012 GTA and dissected that that I really started to clarify the Stages. Hopefully we can do a similar thing on here too, and create our own study guide of the method around the book's chapters.

Thanks, I thought I was turning into a doughnut. Although it does n't describe my error what gdiddy in his intro post said resonates with me.

"I've re-read Stan's book numerous times, and what I've concluded is that while the process sounds simple, it requires a lot of discipline and selectivity." 
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#32
Regional bank KeyCorp (KEY) broke out of a long stage 1 base, I would say into a stage 2A until proven otherwise.Smile The RS (not shown) is positive with only IR (impotent resistance) above. It needs to see a big increase in volume by Fridays close to make it a decent pick though.


   
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