Stage Analysis Beginners Questions

RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions-KL

(07-31-2019, 07:31 PM)isatrader Wrote:
(07-31-2019, 04:42 PM)briansmith456 Wrote: I was hoping you could comment on KL in terms of what you would watch for now in terms of an entry. It is pulling back close to its 10 sma  on the weekly. It will be interesting to see if it reaches its 10 sma and if it  does whether  it holds. Most are assuming FOMC news will cause miners and gold/silver to run higher so maybe it does not even reach the 10 sma. 

As you know from my journal thread, KL is one of my open positions currently. Todays sell off on large volume is not ideal, as in the method we want pullbacks to be on lower volume, not higher. So it is giving me pause about the position, unless it can recover quickly and strongly before the end of the week.

In the method we don't trade on what we think will happen with regards to news etc, but instead look for signs of what's actually happening in the price action and volume etc, and the broad market and sector too. So people might be assuming that the news will cause miners and gold/silver to run higher. But always manage your risk first, as the market is never wrong. And even strong sectors can have pullbacks and consolidations that can last for multiple months.

Thanks Isa,
Volume on KL does not look good today and it is tanking badly now down 10%. And everyone who said FOMC news would result in a big rally in gold/silver/miners was wrong so yes, trading on opinions, news etc is of no help. A good lesson for me to tune out all the know-it-all opinions.
Brian

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RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions-KL

(07-31-2019, 07:56 PM)briansmith456 Wrote:
(07-31-2019, 07:31 PM)isatrader Wrote:
(07-31-2019, 04:42 PM)briansmith456 Wrote: I was hoping you could comment on KL in terms of what you would watch for now in terms of an entry. It is pulling back close to its 10 sma  on the weekly. It will be interesting to see if it reaches its 10 sma and if it  does whether  it holds. Most are assuming FOMC news will cause miners and gold/silver to run higher so maybe it does not even reach the 10 sma. 

As you know from my journal thread, KL is one of my open positions currently. Todays sell off on large volume is not ideal, as in the method we want pullbacks to be on lower volume, not higher. So it is giving me pause about the position, unless it can recover quickly and strongly before the end of the week.

In the method we don't trade on what we think will happen with regards to news etc, but instead look for signs of what's actually happening in the price action and volume etc, and the broad market and sector too. So people might be assuming that the news will cause miners and gold/silver to run higher. But always manage your risk first, as the market is never wrong. And even strong sectors can have pullbacks and consolidations that can last for multiple months.

Thanks Isa,
Volume on KL does not look good today and it is tanking badly now down 10%. And everyone who said FOMC news would result in a big rally in gold/silver/miners was wrong so yes, trading on opinions, news etc is of no help. A good lesson for me to tune out all the know-it-all opinions.
Brian

I've had one position up 30% today and many down 4 or even 8%.  It feels like it has been pandemonium today.  Hopefully the large sells offs will bounce back and probably the large gains fall back somewhat but it will be very interesting to see how tomorrow goes? I've got wide stops and I can't realistically move them until tomorrow evening so I can't tighten them right at this moment.  Historically I've found tight stops get shaken out too much.  It will be interesting to see what the breadth looks like.

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RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions

(07-31-2019, 03:42 PM)Mactheriverrat Wrote:
(07-31-2019, 05:13 AM)diaz Wrote: Hi Isa,
Can I get your analysis on MDR? I thought the stock was poised for an increase but it tanked today (on earnings). I thought it looked like a breakout was coming based on increased volume on the week of July 8th.

IMHO- If your talking about Mcdermott international I would say stage 4 and if your in to shorting stocks then you get the idea. Like Weinstein's says " The tape tells all". To me its what you see not what you want to see. Also it may be in week 1 of stage 4 and it can keep falling in a stage 4. 

MDR - Mcdermott

Mactheriverrat,
From yesterday's action, yes it is back to stage 1 in my opinion, stage 4 would mean it is still declining? When I looked at the chart I thought it was in stage 1 for about 6 months and moved into a potential stage 2 on July 8th week. See attached my chart and thinking. I can see that at the time I thought it was going into stage 2, the mansfield relative strength was still below the zero line but it had been increasing for a number of weeks. Appreciate any one's input into my assessment.



Attached Files Thumbnail(s)
   
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RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions

(08-01-2019, 01:24 PM)diaz Wrote: Yes on MDR is taking another hit today on the daily and push that weekly even lower. If one was shorting one could get in now but IMHO see how MDR breaks below the support line which she's just about there now.[Image: LvqnUq82Bi.png]

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RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions

(08-01-2019, 01:24 PM)diaz Wrote:
(07-31-2019, 03:42 PM)Mactheriverrat Wrote:
(07-31-2019, 05:13 AM)diaz Wrote: Hi Isa,
Can I get your analysis on MDR? I thought the stock was poised for an increase but it tanked today (on earnings). I thought it looked like a breakout was coming based on increased volume on the week of July 8th.

IMHO- If your talking about Mcdermott international I would say stage 4 and if your in to shorting stocks then you get the idea. Like Weinstein's says " The tape tells all". To me its what you see not what you want to see. Also it may be in week 1 of stage 4 and it can keep falling in a stage 4. 

MDR - Mcdermott

Mactheriverrat,
From yesterday's action, yes it is back to stage 1 in my opinion, stage 4 would mean it is still declining? When I looked at the chart I thought it was in stage 1 for about 6 months and moved into a potential stage 2 on July 8th week. See attached my chart and thinking. I can see that at the time I thought it was going into stage 2, the mansfield relative strength was still below the zero line but it had been increasing for a number of weeks. Appreciate any one's input into my assessment.

if i could give my take on this..
the last support at 5.92 (week of 28th May), was less than that on 24th Dec. which means you have lower lows (therefore a downtrend). The potential breakout point at 10.62, we don't have a weekly close
both of these would be a cause for concern for me.
i always look for a higher low, and a close above any previous resistance 
all pretty moot now though as its gone into a stage 4 continuation

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(This post was last modified: 08-02-2019, 06:12 PM by briansmith456.)

RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions-miners opportunity missed?

Hi,

I notice that when I was first looking at miners a few months back and posted a number  of charts they were all  not in the proper stage to buy yet they are up 50-100% many of them. Now it seems the miners are all way too extended so I wonder if maybe the opportunity has passed. It seems that a few months back one could literally buy almost any decent large cap miner (and many small ones) and be up huge now even though they would  not been considered to be in the proper buy stage.

I am wondering if I am correct in thinking the opportunities to make decent money on miners has passed or are things setting up nicely for more potentially great opportunities? I don't know enough about miners and the Weinstein method to judge so wondering what you think about miners now and whether they could still have a big run ahead as in 2016 (problem is if most start running from here they will be well above 50% extended from the 10 sma weekly so one will be chasing and there is nothing to say they will pull back before steaming ahead higher).

I am adding the GDX chart asking that you perhaps point out what we should be looking for now to get in. Maybe the price will come back to the 10 sma (or at least closer) but it may not. I wonder if based on your experience you have an indication of whether there is still a lot of upside left in GDX and various individual miners.

Thanks,
Brian



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RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions-miners opportunity missed?

(08-02-2019, 05:46 PM)briansmith456 Wrote: Hi,

I notice that when I was first looking at miners a few months back and posted a number  of charts they were all  not in the proper stage to buy yet they are up 50-100% many of them. Now it seems the miners are all way too extended so I wonder if maybe the opportunity has passed. It seems that a few months back one could literally buy almost any decent large cap miner (and many small ones) and be up huge now even though they would  not been considered to be in the proper buy stage.

I am wondering if I am correct in thinking the opportunities to make decent money on miners has passed or are things setting up nicely for more potentially great opportunities? I don't know enough about miners and the Weinstein method to judge so wondering what you think about miners now and whether they could still have a big run ahead as in 2016 (problem is if most start running from here they will be well above 50% extended from the 10 sma weekly so one will be chasing and there is nothing to say they will pull back before steaming ahead higher).

I am adding the GDX chart asking that you perhaps point out what we should be looking for now to get in. Maybe the price will come back to the 10 sma (or at least closer) but it may not. I wonder if based on your experience you have an indication of whether there is still a lot of upside left in GDX and various individual miners.

Thanks,
Brian

GDX is extended, however is the chance passed? Not necessarily. its clearly in stage 2 (granted with some resistance ahead) however you'd want a decent pullback and it hasn't had one yet. with the s&p registering a swing high now, you'd want this to follow suit and then rebreak it



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RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions-miners opportunity missed?

(08-02-2019, 05:46 PM)briansmith456 Wrote: Hi,

I notice that when I was first looking at miners a few months back and posted a number  of charts they were all  not in the proper stage to buy yet they are up 50-100% many of them. Now it seems the miners are all way too extended so I wonder if maybe the opportunity has passed. It seems that a few months back one could literally buy almost any decent large cap miner (and many small ones) and be up huge now even though they would  not been considered to be in the proper buy stage.

I am wondering if I am correct in thinking the opportunities to make decent money on miners has passed or are things setting up nicely for more potentially great opportunities? I don't know enough about miners and the Weinstein method to judge so wondering what you think about miners now and whether they could still have a big run ahead as in 2016 (problem is if most start running from here they will be well above 50% extended from the 10 sma weekly so one will be chasing and there is nothing to say they will pull back before steaming ahead higher).

I am adding the GDX chart asking that you perhaps point out what we should be looking for now to get in. Maybe the price will come back to the 10 sma (or at least closer) but it may not. I wonder if based on your experience you have an indication of whether there is still a lot of upside left in GDX and various individual miners.

Thanks,
Brian

Hi Brian, maybe the attached 30 year monthly chart of Gold might give a bit more perspective for you.

   

isatrader

Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
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