Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis
#33
Attached is the updated Effective Volume charts from http://www.effectivevolume.com of the SPY, QQQ and IWM ETFs, which shows a negative divergence with the price action this week, as the large player volume has stayed fairly flat around the 20 day MA and not made new highs like the indexes have.


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isatrader

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#34
Attached is the NYSE long, medium and short term moving average breadth charts and the NYSE Bullish Percent Index.

The short term moving average breadth charts all added to their column of Xs this week, with the Dow Percentage of Stocks above their 50 day moving average chart moving to the extreme 90% level once more, at the end of the week. So 27 of the 30 stocks in the Dow are above their 50 day MA. The S&P 500 Percentage of Stocks above their 50 day moving average chart is also back to it's upper levels with 84% (420) of stocks in the S&P 500 above their 50 day moving averages.

The medium term NYSE Percentage of Stocks above their 150 day moving average remains on Bear Alert status as it failed to reverse from it's column of Os this week. So a cautionary sign still with stocks at such high readings to be aware of.

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isatrader

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#35
The 10 Year US Treasuries have finally closed below the horizontal support from the August 2012 low, after moving into Stage 4A at the beginning of this year. So the 10 Year US Treasuries are in a confirmed Stage 4 now imo, with relative performance continuing to weaken below it's Mansfield zero line. The 30 week MA is declining, and has been since mid December, and cumulative volume is on a sell signal and declining.

The initial swing target is 127.80 which would see it test the lower horizontal support from the late 2011 Stage 3 range. if that fails to hold then the next support would be at 125. Below is the marked up chart.

US 10 Year Treasuries (TY) chart

   

After grinding slowly lower for last nine weeks since the Stage 4 breakdown, the 30 Year Treasuries have made their first continuation move lower. Like the 10 Year Treasuries the 30 week MA is declining, and relative performance is continuing to weaken below it's zero line. And cumulative volume continues to decline also.

The swing target is still 136.69, which like the 10 Year Treasuries would see the 30 Year Treasuries test the bottom of the previous Stage 3 range. A break of which could see a potential move down to the next support at 131. Below is the marked up chart.

US 30 Year Treasuries (US) chart

   

US Treasuries have a largely inverse relationship with US Equities, and so these moves are very bullish for the stock market which also broke out this week to the upside, and hence gives some confirmation to these Stage 4 breakdowns in the Treasuries and vice versa in the stocks.
isatrader

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#36
Attached is the updated major equity charts and the relative performance table.

There were multiple continuation moves this week, with the S&P 500 making a notable continuation, which could propel it too it's 2007 high of 1576.09 - also notable on the S&P 500 chart is that it's now back over 5% above it's 30 week WMA, which is the strong bull zone (not part of the method - just a personal addition).

On the relative performance table the German Dax recaptured the top spot it held for most of the second half of last year and the 10 Year Treasuries moved lower as it confirmed it's Stage 4 breakdown as mentioned in the previous post.

Relative Performance Table - week ending 8th March 2013

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US Stock Indexes

               

European Stock Indexes

       


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isatrader

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#37
Attached is the updated major commodities charts, Gold (GC), Copper (HG), West Texas Intermediate Crude (CL) - which all tested support levels this week and held.


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isatrader

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#38
And finally attached is the Dollar Index (DX) and the Volatility Index (VIX).


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isatrader

Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
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#39
It was big week in the sector breadth charts, with all nine moving strongly higher, which I don't remember happening this year yet. So there was broad participation in the continuation moves in the US markets.

Five of the sector reversed to buy signals this week, and so seven of the nine sectors are now on positive in the upper portion of the range. So while it shows strength across the majority, more of the sectors are in the higher risk zone again.

Financials and Industrials remain the strongest sectors with 82% of their stocks above their 150 day moving averages, whereas Energy and Basic Materials are the weakest with only 57.63% and 55.02% above their 150 day moving averages.

Below is the data table for the Percent of Stocks Above 150 Day Moving Average in each sector which I've ordered by relative strength, with the highest to the lowest percentage in each sector. Also attached is the visual diagram of the 9 sectors and the overall NYSE Percentage of Stocks above their 150 day Moving Averages, plus the 1% P&F chart and line chart of the nine sectors.

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isatrader

Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
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#40
Attached is the updated US Industry Sector charts and the relative performance table, which confirms a lot of what I was seeing in the S&P 500 breakouts every day this week, as Consumer Discretionary stocks featured heavily and hence it moved up two places in the table to second place.

Five of the nine sectors continued to make new highs, and all nine sectors are trading above their 30 week moving averages.

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