Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis
#17
Attached is the updated PUT/CALL ratio charts which have gone to a sell signal.


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isatrader

Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
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#18
Attached is the long, medium and short term moving average breadth charts and the NYSE Bullish Percent Index. The short term moving average breadth charts reversed back to a column of Xs and so averted the bear alert status that most were on last week, for the time being. But as you can see on the line chart, it's had a big pullback and is now well below it's own 50 day MA and the 70% level, and so a move below 58% would take it to a new Bear Confirmed signal.

A more concerning move this week was that the medium term NYSE Percentage of Stocks above their 150 day Moving Averages chart continued lower in it's column of Os and made high pole warning, and hence moved to Bear Alert status. And, so although the short term has rebounded a bit, it's concerning to see the medium term chart moving lower and so risk of a downturn seems to becoming more likely, even though there's a lot of green on the tables below.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=127]

[Image: attachment.php?aid=128]


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isatrader

Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
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#19
This week saw four more changes on the sector breadth charts, with three more moving to sell signals and consumer staples slightly recovering back above it's 10 week MA. So seven of the nine sectors are now on sell signals in the upper portion of the range and so is a precarious position and indicates caution is necessary.

Financials and Industrials remain the strongest sectors with 78% of their stocks above their 150 day moving averages whereas Energy was the biggest mover dropping 7.38% to the bottom of the chart, as now only 51.44% of stocks in the Energy sector are above their 150 day moving averages. This is closely followed by Basic Materials which is equally as weak.

Below is the data table for the Percent of Stocks Above 150 Day Moving Average in each sector which I've ordered by relative strength, with the highest to the lowest percentage in each sector. Also attached is the visual diagram of the 9 sectors and the overall NYSE Percentage of Stocks above their 150 day Moving Averages, plus the 1% P&F chart and line chart of the nine sectors.

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isatrader

Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
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#20
Attached is the updated Effective Volume charts from http://www.effectivevolume.com which show that the large players have been exiting all three of the major index ETFs as all three are below their 20 day MAs and in a new downtrend.


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isatrader

Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
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#21
Attached is the updated major charts and the relative performance table. I will split the post across multiple posts to avoid the page getting too heavy as there's already a lot of charts on the first two posts.

Relative Performance Table - week ending 1st March 2013

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isatrader

Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
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#22
Attached is the updated stock index charts for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, NYSE Composite, Dow Jones Transportation Average, German Dax and the FTSE 100.

US Indexes

The S&P 500 continues in Stage 2 currently. However, I'm changing my rating to a Stage 2B- as it's consolidating above the recent breakout and the 50 day MA is starting to catch up. On the weekly chart the uptrend is still intact and although it's attempted to push lower in both of the last two weeks, both times it's been rejected and closed not far from the previous weeks close. So although the price action is toppy, it could yet continue on higher to challenge the 2007 highs. A cautious note however, is that the 30 week WMA momentum, which has risen every week since the start of the year fell last week. So we need to be selective and focus on trader method positions imo.

                   

European Indexes

       
isatrader

Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
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#23
Attached is the updated major commodities charts. Gold (GC), Copper (HG), West Texas Intermediate Crude (CL), Brent Crude (BZ) and the Dollar Index (DX) which has strong inverse correlation with them, plus the Volatility Index (VIX) which is starting to show some life again, but is still bottom on the relative performance table currently.


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isatrader

Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
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#24
Attached is the updated charts for the US 10 Year Treasuries (TY) and the US 30 Year Treasuries (US). It was futures expiration week and when they switched over on Thursday there was a notable gap between the March and June contracts, which caused the the unadjusted chart to gap lower and recover slightly into the close of the week, whereas the continuous adjusted chart would have shown a strong up week. However, we look at the unadjusted data on here, as we want to trade the real levels of support and resistance and so the US Treasuries continue their Stage 4 downtrends for the time being. Below is the charts


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isatrader

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