Stage Analysis Forum - Trading & Investing using Stan Weinstein's Stocks Breakout method
US Stocks Breakouts & Breakdowns - SP500, NYSE, & Nasdaq Stock Charts - Printable Version

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ATR Big Movers - isatrader - 2013-03-22

Attached is the table of this weeks big movers in the S&P 500 relative to their 200 day Average True Range, and also the charts of a few of them. Most have had big breakouts and so could be potential pullback plays, but YHOO looks to have a reasonable risk reward for a continuation breakout play.

   

RE: Watchlist - Investor method - Lplate - 2013-03-24

(2013-03-11, 08:17 PM)goodtyneguy Wrote: Global Ship Lease (GSL) is a minnow that looks interesting. Not shown (EOD data only) but today has been a big up day on unusually high volume. The negative is that it's not a very liquid stock.


The shippers may be of interest in the near future, this is the Guggenheim shipping ETF SEA


I was going to post this one in the trader watch list but I calculate that we are looking at an ATR(200) of 3.78 with a stop under the last swing low at 16.61. Having said that, it may make a higher swing low before it breaks out. Best to play the strongest stock in the sector given the opportunity imo.

Looking at isatrader's recent comprehensive stockmarketanalysis, the stockmarkets maintain a bullish look overall, but, as might be expected after a good run up over the last few months, look to be pausing or topping.
This is reflected that looking at, say, the dozen or so stock breakout suggestions in the early part of the month, about one-third appear to be false breakouts, while the remainder look OK and a handful look promising. (I haven't checked the suggestions from the current week.)
One of these, by Googdtyneguy SEA Gug Shipping ETF is of particular interest, http://scharts.co/ZL7yFY b/o $16 now $17.70
arguably being a reflection of the Baltic Dry Index. Although isatrader has flagged up on a daily-chart basis a warning on some Asian and Latin stock index ETFs, SEA looks correlated with China and Latin America indices, which are still sideways but not negative on a weekly chart.
Of the numerous shipping stocks, many haven't broken out, but promising ones as well as GSL suggested by goodtyneguy look to be Diana Shipping DSX http://scharts.co/ZL88Uh b/o $8 now $10, Excel Maritime EXM http://scharts.co/ZL8jPr B/O 70c NOW 80c, Eagle Bulk Shipping EGLE http://scharts.co/Y7IHNK b/o $2.70 now 3.90, Nordic American Tankers http://scharts.co/Y7JcY5 b/o $10 now $11.15 . I am thinking of trying these, but remember that most of these companies have profits under the waterline(!) awaiting trade recovery. Other reasons likewise mean this is not a sector to go overboard(!) upon http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/03/22/wall-street-gives-shipping-stocks-the-green-light.aspx These stocks, though, look to be waking up.

RE: Watchlist - Investor method - isatrader - 2013-03-24

Thanks Lplate, for your really good detailed post. With regards to SEA (Guggenheim Shipping ETF) I always think it's important to see what ETFs are made up of and the weightings that the individual stocks in them have. So attached is the Guggenheim Shipping ETF Holdings with the various weightings used, so that you can see what you are buying if you do use the ETF, and check the individual charts for any resistance not obvious on the SEA chart which I've also attached. To see the full info on the ETF go to: http://guggenheiminvestments.com/products/etf/sea/holdings

RE: Watchlist - Investor method - SBRY.L UK:SBRY - Lplate - 2013-03-28

It's not an ideal set-up but it might be of interest for ISA investors. I missed it a week or so ago, but there was a continuation b/o in large cap supermarket Sainsbury SBRY last week at 360p now 375p. As this is generally a slow-moving share not one to chase, he tactic should be to wait for a retrace to 360p.
There is big 2010 resistance at 400p, but above that there is a large Autumn 2007 gap and a summer 2007 high of 600p to aim at, so this might be approached as a multi-part position, with the first part as a spreadbet
It is a 4% dividend stock and ISAble, and though this might make it temporarily attractive, a question to ask is who the buyers will be as the stock price rises and the yield becomes less attractive.
http://tinyurl.com/d5l7e6l

RE: Watchlist - Investor method - Best Buy BBY - Lplate - 2013-03-29

Best Buy BBY now at $22.15 http://scharts.co/1061xUC is another interesting Weinstein investor situation. On a trader method I guess the horizontal stage 2 b/o was back in Feb at $16, and that coincided with a downtrend break (and 30wk MA break) on the investor view, but lacked an up direction in the 30 wk MA.
The 30 wk WMA is now pointing up, so the investor break, still on volume, is at around $21.
The first target is around $27. As Best Buy is a fairly boring retail stock in a time of falling discretionary incomes, with mixed sentiment, and indifferent recent results, I don't expect a massive rise.
People are expecting a stockmarket pullback, so I could hope for an entry price of, say, $21, and a stop only a couple of $ below that. (I don't think I'd have my stop as low as $14.)

PS I see now it is listed as a trader b/o on 4 March http://stageanalysis.net/forum/showthread.php?tid=17&pid=101&highlight=4%2F3%2F13#pid101

RE: Watchlist - Investor method - isatrader - 2013-03-29

(2013-03-29, 10:47 AM)Lplate Wrote: PS I see now it is listed as a trader b/o on 4 March http://stageanalysis.net/forum/showthread.php?tid=17&pid=101&highlight=4%2F3%2F13#pid101

Thanks for another good post Lplate. Just to clarify for everyone in case it's not clear. The Daily Breakouts and Breakdowns in the S&P 500 thread shows "double top" point and figure breakouts, and so simply measures when a stock has broken above it's most recent swing high, using the traditional point and figure box sizes. And hence the stocks could be in any Stage, and so the list is simply to highlight the breakouts and breakdowns from which to then do further research on to find if any of the days breakouts or breakdowns are suitable Weinstein method candidates.

I've attached a daily chart of Best Buy and the point and figure equivalent that the 4th March signal was produced from. This shows the three double top breakouts since the beginning of the year, and as you can see, it wasn't until the third breakout on 4th March that the 30 week MA turned higher making it suitable for the investor method, and so the early breakouts would have only been suitable for the most aggressive traders, as the 30 week MA was still declining and there was nearby resistance to get through also.

RE: Watchlist - Investor method - Lplate - 2013-03-29

(2013-03-29, 11:53 AM)isatrader Wrote:
(2013-03-29, 10:47 AM)Lplate Wrote: PS I see now it is listed as a trader b/o on 4 March http://stageanalysis.net/forum/showthread.php?tid=17&pid=101&highlight=4%2F3%2F13#pid101
. . .
I've attached a daily chart of Best Buy and the point and figure equivalent that the 4th March signal was produced from. This shows the three double top breakouts since the beginning of the year, and as you can see, it wasn't until the third breakout on 4th March that the 30 week MA turned higher making it suitable for the investor method, and so the early breakouts would have only been suitable for the most aggressive traders, as the 30 week MA was still declining and there was nearby resistance to get through also.

Isatrader, thanks for clarifying that 4 March was not a trader b/o but an investor b/o. To clarify for anyone reading, it seems my mistake is in not seeing the slope of the MA correctly, and indeed on a bigger chart it is clearer that the investor b/o occurred as isatrader said, at around $18.50 in early March, not as I said at around $21 in late March. http://scharts.co/106ivCe
The original stop from early March would have been, I guess, below the spike down, around $15, and most people would by now have moved it up to at least $17.
My trade suggestion really suggest me being brave enough to have a stop at around $19.

ATR Big Movers - isatrader - 2013-03-29

Attached is the table of this weeks big movers in the S&P 500 relative to their 200 day Average True Range. The majority of which were in the three defensive sectors - XLP, XLV and XLU.