Stage Analysis Forum - Trading & Investing using Stan Weinstein's Stocks Breakout method
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RE: Watchlist - Traders method - isatrader - 2013-10-04

DANG is currently up around 16% since I highlighted it over a week ago http://stageanalysis.net/forum/showthread.php?tid=14&pid=1754#pid1754 and is close to making a potential Stage 2 continuation move. Relative performance and volume have continued to be strong. Attached is the charts.

RE: Watchlist - Traders method - isatrader - 2013-10-04

Three Stage 2 continuation moves in the single digits - JRJC, KUTV and LOJN

RE: Watchlist - Investor method - goodtyneguy - 2013-10-05

(2013-10-04, 02:55 PM)theory6453 Wrote: I don't think anyone has given anupam384 a pat on the back for the IDRA call but it is up 60%-65% since he highlighted it last week. I got in at $1.79 on Monday and the stock is currently trading at $2.95. Hopefully this one still has some more upside to it thru the end of the year.

Nice job anupam384! I'll be looking forward to more of your picks!

Here, here, good pick anupam384.

I thought this one was quite deceiving as the volume on the pull back was greater than the volume leading to the break out. For that reason I was going to pass up on this one until the perfect pocket pivot purchase (excluding fundamentals) bounce off the 50 dma came in on 25th Sept . This was followed by a doji on the 1st October and then a bullish engulfing candle both finding support at the 50 dma on decent volume. At this point I could here the stock screaming "buy me". Happy days Smile

   

   


RE: Watchlist - Investor method - anupam384 - 2013-10-05

(2013-10-04, 04:08 PM)isatrader Wrote: Well done to anupam384 on his IDRA pick.

I've highlighted MCP a number of times on the thread over the last few months, and bought into it myself in early August. It continues to trade in Stage 1B and has had a strong week. Relative performance is breaking above the zero line, but volume is still only average currently, but the 50 day MA and 200 day MA are today at the same level, so could crossover finally.

To move into Stage 2A this would need to close above the July swing high of 8.06 imo. Attached is the charts.

Disclaimer: I have been long MCP since 7th August.

isatrader, what are your thoughts about the industry. I read and was told that the industry is out of gas for a while. I bought at the wrong time (may be around the same time as you) and sold for a loss. I take full responsibility for my decision.
(2013-10-05, 01:19 AM)goodtyneguy Wrote:
(2013-10-04, 02:55 PM)theory6453 Wrote: I don't think anyone has given anupam384 a pat on the back for the IDRA call but it is up 60%-65% since he highlighted it last week. I got in at $1.79 on Monday and the stock is currently trading at $2.95. Hopefully this one still has some more upside to it thru the end of the year.

Nice job anupam384! I'll be looking forward to more of your picks!

Here, here, good pick anupam384.

I thought this one was quite deceiving as the volume on the pull back was greater than the volume leading to the break out. For that reason I was going to pass up on this one until the perfect pocket pivot purchase (excluding fundamentals) bounce off the 50 dma came in on 25th Sept . This was followed by a doji on the 1st October and then a bullish engulfing candle both finding support at the 50 dma on decent volume. At this point I could here the stock screaming "buy me". Happy days Smile




Thanks theory, goodtyneguy and isatrader. There is no doubt that I am learning from the best but I think I just got lucky on this one. May be beginner's luck Smile

How long do you guys plan to hold on to IDRA. This bio company will release their phase II results in first half of next year and could be worth north of $35 (being conservative) in few years. I can post the numbers if you guys would like to see.

RE: Watchlist - Investor method - isatrader - 2013-10-05

(2013-10-05, 04:56 AM)anupam384 Wrote: isatrader, what are your thoughts about the industry. I read and was told that the industry is out of gas for a while. I bought at the wrong time (may be around the same time as you) and sold for a loss. I take full responsibility for my decision.

The Rare Earth industry has long term potential as they are essential in all sorts of modern tech devices. However, in the short term the industry had a highly speculative Stage 2 run when Molycorp first listed in July 2010 and all the rare earth stocks ran up until people realised, that they were still very early in their development, not profitable, and not likely to be for a long time, and hence the massive two year Stage 4 decline.

Signs of basing in the four US listed stocks, AVL, QRM, MCP and REE have been occurring lately with AVL moving into early Stage 1, MCP in Stage 1B, QRM in early Stage 2A, and REE in Stage 2A. So as Weinstein's method is 100% technical, and sector analysis is a very important part of it. I've taken this as a sign of improvement in the sector overall, and took a small position in MCP with the aim of adding to it should it improve further and manage to breakout into Stage 2A. As with the investor method the aim is to enter half a position at the Stage 2A breakout point, and then the second half of the position on the first significant pullback towards the breakout point. However, once stocks are in Stage 1, you can begin to accumulate a position in smaller pieces, but obviously you'll have to have much more patience and sit through a volatile sideways range that could still breakdown and continue in Stage 4. So hence why you should only accumulate at that Stage with smaller position sizes, as the trend is not yet up at that point, and has more chance of failure.

I think the fact that you sold out for a loss already says to me that you weren't approaching it as an investor position, as it hasn't been anywhere near the investor stop loss under the Stage 1 range. So it sounds like you are trading it, and not investing in it, and hence you shouldn't be playing Stage 1 stocks really, as the majority of trader positions should be stocks that are already in Stage 2 on pullbacks like your IDRA pick, or on continuation moves like CCIH, which I highlighted before Thursdays open on the trader thread http://stageanalysis.net/forum/showthread.php?tid=14&pid=1814#pid1814

I hope that helps

Cheers

RE: Watchlist - Investor method - goodtyneguy - 2013-10-05

(2013-10-05, 04:56 AM)anupam384 Wrote: Thanks theory, goodtyneguy and isatrader. There is no doubt that I am learning from the best but I think I just got lucky on this one. May be beginner's luck Smile

How long do you guys plan to hold on to IDRA. This bio company will release their phase II results in first half of next year and could be worth north of $35 (being conservative) in few years. I can post the numbers if you guys would like to see.

Thanks for the compliment anupam384, perhaps a bit overdone in my case though Wink

With regard to how long I will be holding. I have to say in true Weinstein style I have n't looked at what's behind the stock as far as news and fundamentals are concerned. It's hard not to get interested, it's only natural but I think it is best to let the chart be the final arbiter of when to sell. As Weinstein alluded too in SFPIBABM often the big money insiders know what's going on long before it hits the news wires. I have my full faith in that and following the method. Recent case in point is MAKO, which I mentioned had about fifteen time average daily volume in the trader thread on 31st July (and you discussed with isatrader in August). As we know now, a deal must have been in the making between then and Sept 25th when it was announced that Stryker were to buy them out for what was nearly twice the price they were trading for before the announcement.

   

P.S. excuse the mistake on the chart, my dollars turned to pounds on the gap up also. Wish I could do that in real life!Smile

I have made one exception to the method with it being a low priced speculative pharma stock. I think it's important to protect at least some profit and for that reason I have brought my stop up early on half the position to 10 cents under the low of the gap up day. Gaps often act as support and resistance. I entered it as a trader play but will probably take half off when I see a reversal candlestick pattern on the daily and then will be able to let the other half run as an investor position and if I get stopped out on the gap stop then I will probably do the same.

Having said all that I have n't asked if you are in the Pharma business or some related field? In which case I'm all ears Smile

One other thing that I should mention is that we have to thank the main man, isatrader for his dedication in providing us with his daily breakout point and figure scans and the charts he posts up from them of the stocks meeting the methods criteria! I find the one in the elite members section of the whole US markets a boon to finding the best opportunities, if I recall correctly both the stocks above came up on the scans!
I took small position in the shipping stock GLBS near the close on Friday just gone on the secondary pull back entry where it has been getting daily support.

It's far from an A+ opportunity as the volume on the BO does not quite meet the requirements and according to the Ichymoku cloud it still has a little work to do to clear resistance. I entered this one as an accumulator in stage one rather than expecting to see it immediately evolve into a stage 2 mainly because of it's 10.87% dividend yield. I don't mind waiting if I'm getting paid and can look forward to higher pay outs.... if all goes to plan of course.

   


RE: Watchlist - Investor method - theory6453 - 2013-10-05

(2013-10-05, 03:27 PM)goodtyneguy Wrote:
(2013-10-05, 04:56 AM)anupam384 Wrote: How long do you guys plan to hold on to IDRA. This bio company will release their phase II results in first half of next year and could be worth north of $35 (being conservative) in few years. I can post the numbers if you guys would like to see.

With regard to how long I will be holding. I have to say in true Weinstein style I have n't looked at what's behind the stock as far as news and fundamentals are concerned. It's hard not to get interested, it's only natural but I think it is best to let the chart be the final arbiter of when to sell. As Weinstein alluded too in SFPIBABM often the big money insiders know what's going on long before it hits the news wires. I have my full faith in that and following the method.

One other thing that I should mention is that we have to thank the main man, isatrader for his dedication in providing us with his daily breakout point and figure scans and the charts he posts up from them of the stocks meeting the methods criteria! I find the one in the elite members section of the whole US markets a boon to finding the best opportunities, if I recall correctly both the stocks above came up on the scans!

I agree with goodtyneguy… I am going to let Stan’s method and the chart dictate long-term how long to hold. I look at articles like I posted and high future valuations as icing on the cake once Stan’s technical indicators turn positive (IDRA’s indicators rated 10 out of 10 in terms of what I look for)… meaning that they may influence whether I like a stock or not but they are not going to be the main drivers of my buy/sell decisions. Based on IDRA’s recent performance and the other articles/info we’ve seen, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if IDRA has a fairly nice Stage 2 run in the into next year (let’s hope) and I will likely be adding to my position on pullbacks as my portfolio and finances allow (providing that the chart continues to support it). Even if all goes well with IDRA in the next few years and those monster valuations are correct, there will probably still be periods where it will move sideways or even down for a time, at which point I will follow the method and move out of my position and look to move back in on a further Stage 2 continuation move.

All in all though, IDRA has my attention and I will be following it VERY closely to see what the future holds. Smile

***PACB looks by all accounts to be in a nice Stage 2 as well so I may look to add it to my holdings on the next pullback once I research it further.

Here, here!!! Thanks to isatrader for his diligence and dedication as well! This forum is amazing and the info provided from the community here is invaluable! I can’t speak highly enough! If you are reading this and are not an Elite member, you need to be!
(2013-10-05, 03:27 PM)goodtyneguy Wrote: I took small position in the shipping stock GLBS near the close on Friday just gone on the secondary pull back entry where it has been getting daily support.

It's far from an A+ opportunity as the volume on the BO does not quite meet the requirements and according to the Ichymoku cloud it still has a little work to do to clear resistance. I entered this one as an accumulator in stage one rather than expecting to see it immediately evolve into a stage 2 mainly because of it's 10.87% dividend yield. I don't mind waiting if I'm getting paid and can look forward to higher pay outs.... if all goes to plan of course.


If GLBS clears its resistance in Oct/Nov (which you mentioned) and breakouts above $3.50-$3.60 range with some good volume, I think it will be in pretty good shape for a nice Stage 2 breakout IMO. I would like to see that MA move up some more and a nice volume spike. Marine Transpo has been a good sub-group for me recently (BALT, EGLE) so I hope GLBS can continue the trend.

BTW, I checked Google Finance and Dividend.com and it said that GLBS suspended divs in 2012. Do you have info on a 2013/2014 payout date? Just a heads up as it sounds as that is a tentpole of your strategy.

Good luck. Smile

RE: Watchlist - Investor method - isatrader - 2013-10-06

ALTI made a Stage 2A breakout this week on 3 times the average weekly volume, although it's very small volume overall. Relative performance crossed above the zero line, but it does have significant near term resistance to get through. Attached are the charts.