Stage Analysis Forum - Trading & Investing using Stan Weinstein's Stocks Breakout method
US Stocks Breakouts & Breakdowns - SP500, NYSE, & Nasdaq Stock Charts - Printable Version

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RE: Watchlist - Traders method - isatrader - 2013-03-08

Here's the tables of the today's early breakouts and breakdowns in the NYSE and Nasdaq markets to look through for any potential Weinstein picks.

NYSE

       

Nasdaq

       

RE: Watchlist - Traders method - goodtyneguy - 2013-03-08

Quad Graphics (QUAD)

QAUD broke out on the 7th but I thought it was still close enough to consider a trade or adding to my watch list for a PB. Here's my chart interpretation.

       



Martin Marietta Materials (MLM) similar situation with this one.

       


Ford (F) - Stage 2 secondary entry point - isatrader - 2013-03-11

Ford is a stock I've been following for a while now, since it's Stage 2A breakout late in 2012. I originally did a write up on the previous thread #Post#764 here: http://www.trade2win.com/boards/technical-analysis/134944-stan-weinsteins-stage-analysis-96.html#post2048194 and mentioned that the Stage 2A breakout had been missed, so I needed to look for a pullback entry to the secondary lower risk entry point. Which I believe we now have, as it last week closed above the previous weeks high after testing support from the early 2012 range. The negative though is that it's still below it's most recent small consolidation and the 50 day MA, so that adds some near term risk to the entry. But at the current level it will give a reasonable 2.94 x ATR(200) risk for a trader stop loss.

Cumulative volume on the P&F chart shows that the pullback volume has only been half the breakout column volume, and relative performance is still above the Mansfield daily and weekly zero lines.

The trader stop loss would go at 11.99 and the investor stop would go at 10.75 imo. Attached is the charts.

RE: Watchlist - Traders method - isatrader - 2013-03-11

Here's the tables of the today's early breakouts and breakdowns in the NYSE and Nasdaq markets to look through for any potential Weinstein picks.

NYSE

       

Nasdaq

       

RE: Watchlist - Traders method - goodtyneguy - 2013-03-11

MLM mentioned above has given a another buy opp on a pullback to the BO level. Any thoughts on it about the distance from the 30 wma, or any thing else for that matter?

RE: Watchlist - Traders method - isatrader - 2013-03-11

(2013-03-11, 04:38 PM)goodtyneguy Wrote: MLM mentioned above has given a another buy opp on a pullback to the BO level. Any thoughts on it about the distance from the 30 wma, or any thing else for that matter?

I think you're too early on the pullback as it's extended and so you'd want to see a pullback to around 101.5 - 102.5 for a potential entry. The trader stop would go around 93.49 beneath the previous swing low, which would be around 4 x ATR(200) risk from that entry point - which is too high imo, as you don't want more than 3 x ATR(200) risk on a trader position imo. So you'd need to wait for new swing low to form or for a pullback to around the 50 day MA in the 98 area to get that. So imo, you should just keep this one on the watchlist for the time being as the risk is too high.

RE: Watchlist - Traders method - goodtyneguy - 2013-03-11

Thanks, in future I will checked to see if the risk in the trade is below <= 3x ATR(200) that would have ruled it out immediately without further ado. I have to say the consolidation does n't have "the right look" about it, if there is such a thing.

In the same vein, chart 3-3 on p62 of SFPIBABM confuses me, I can't see the price of a stock coming so close to the 30 wma many times in stage 2/4, or perhaps it's just me not appreciating how selective one has to be?

RE: Watchlist - Traders method - isatrader - 2013-03-11

(2013-03-11, 06:02 PM)goodtyneguy Wrote: On the same vein, chart 3-3 on p62 of SFPIBABM confuses me, I can't see the price of a stock coming so close to the 30 wma many times in stage 2/4, or perhaps it's just me not appreciating how selective one has to be?

Remember that's the ideal chart. You'll get lots of little consolidations in Stage 2 run that only last a few weeks, but the "ideal" trader entry is after a more sustained consolidation of a few months or more, as this gives a bigger base to spring from, as long as the 30 week MA is still rising strongly.

See my below example of Rolls Royce from 2010, and compare to the ideal buy for a trader chart, as I think that's a good example, as it went sideways for 4-5 months before breaking out again, but still within a strong stage 2 uptrend. Following the breakout it made a two month 9 x ATR(200) run, before starting to consolidate again. Remember what is says on page 18 in the book.

Quote:Weinstein's definition of a trader is "someone who wants to catch each significant two to four month move."

So in my opinion, for trader picks you should be looking for consolidations in a strong Stage 2 stock, that last a few months or more, that continue to show good relative strength and that volume continues to build, as these will give you the best chances of a strong continuation move.