Stage Analysis Forum - Trading & Investing using Stan Weinstein's Stocks Breakout method
US Stocks Breakouts & Breakdowns - SP500, NYSE, & Nasdaq Stock Charts - Printable Version

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RE: Watchlist - Investor method - goodtyneguy - 2013-09-19

(2013-09-19, 03:43 PM)Jere Wrote: Check out EGLE! I'm in at 5.44! Wow this thing is up 23% today, and I caught all of it. So tempted to sell. Its a good problem to have, but it sucks. I hate have to battle myself. You are your own worst enemy!
No harm in taking a third or a half off for a quick traders profit as Weinstein suggested, in fact IIRC he also suggests one could take it all off and wait for pull back to get in again. I prefer the former.

I'm also in ESEA, pays a 3.61 divi.

RE: Watchlist - Traders method - isatrader - 2013-09-19

(2013-09-19, 06:13 PM)gbarbs Wrote: Here's one that is on my watchlist - ANW. I got into it during the consolidation period and got stopped out. I had anticipated the continuation move, and put a tight stop on which was hit. Poor decision making and being jumpy. So, now there looks like an actual continuation. Provided it stays where its at it should show a buy signal on the P&F as a triple top (although very close to the downtrend line).

I don't know. I like this but not sure I'm going to buy right now. I don't know if its the downtrend line on the P&F or the market being up so much. I am invested enough right now, so think I'll wait for a pullback and really safe entry.

Here's some alternate charts to give a different perspective, as using a percentage box size P&F chart instead based on the 20 day average true range (which is 4.2% currently), it shows it's in an uptrend and making a Stage 2 continuation move currently. I've also attached the Ichmoku weekly chart which is a method I l personally like to look at to gauge the long term resistance.

RE: Watchlist - Investor method - gbarbs - 2013-09-19

I was thinking about posting a question to the group today so am glad this topic came up. Jere - get used to the quick advance. In only a few months I've had several advance pretty quickly on me. I am realizing that when it happens fast (or even slow) I find myself wanting to lock in gains - but you want to ride the winners as far as possible so at what point do you sell half??? I want to have a plan in place ahead of time so if a quick advance occurs, I have a rule to follow that can be followed with emotions set aside. Emotions get in the way when prices are moving significantly.

In the book he says you can sell half after a quick advance and then ride the other half using the stops he taught. I am trying to get a good idea on how to come up with a formula to identify a level where I'd sell half.

Don't have one yet. I think it should depend on how far and how fast, and maybe the price target if one is available? I really don't know. Looking forward to others thoughts....

RE: Watchlist - Investor method - isatrader - 2013-09-19

(2013-09-19, 08:00 PM)gbarbs Wrote: I was thinking about posting a question to the group today so am glad this topic came up. Jere - get used to the quick advance. In only a few months I've had several advance pretty quickly on me. I am realizing that when it happens fast (or even slow) I find myself wanting to lock in gains - but you want to ride the winners as far as possible so at what point do you sell half??? I want to have a plan in place ahead of time so if a quick advance occurs, I have a rule to follow that can be followed with emotions set aside. Emotions get in the way when prices are moving significantly.

In the book he says you can sell half after a quick advance and then ride the other half using the stops he taught. I am trying to get a good idea on how to come up with a formula to identify a level where I'd sell half.

Don't have one yet. I think it should depend on how far and how fast, and maybe the price target if one is available? I really don't know. Looking forward to others thoughts....

There are a number of things that I look at personally for this, which is a combination of the Swing Target (if from a decent sized base), the Average True Range (ATR), point and figure price targets and any key resistance levels.

The ATR method is something I've developed over time, and I use it for both position sizing and to grade the quality of a trade, as each stock has it's own personality, and hence might move 4% a day if it's a small cap biotech, whereas a large cap utility stock might only move 0.5% a day on average. So a 5% move in a utility stock would be the equivalent to a 40% move in a small cap biotech. So I use the 200 day ATR to determine the volatility / average range of the stock initially and then look to achieve a good move based on the ATR sized targets. On a trader position this would be at least 4x the 200 day ATR figure, whereas on an investor position I'd be looking for more like 10 times the 200 day ATR figure.

The Swing target is explained in the book on page 246, and point and figure targets are projections based on the size of the initial breakout column on the P&F chart and so depend on the scaling method used. Hence it's useful to look at multiple scales to get an average figure.

These to me seem like sensible places to take profits, but there is no rules in the method on this area, just that he suggests taking profits when the stock has had a strong run and got extended, or when it breaks and closes below a key trendline etc.

RE: Watchlist - Traders method - Jere - 2013-09-20

NTES: This one looking nice. Its also on IBDs top 50.

RE: Watchlist - Traders method - Jere - 2013-09-20

CME maybe good for a trade here.

RE: Watchlist - Traders method - Jere - 2013-09-20

(2013-09-19, 06:13 PM)gbarbs Wrote: Here's one that is on my watchlist - ANW. I got into it during the consolidation period and got stopped out. I had anticipated the continuation move, and put a tight stop on which was hit. Poor decision making and being jumpy. So, now there looks like an actual continuation. Provided it stays where its at it should show a buy signal on the P&F as a triple top (although very close to the downtrend line).

I don't know. I like this but not sure I'm going to buy right now. I don't know if its the downtrend line on the P&F or the market being up so much. I am invested enough right now, so think I'll wait for a pullback and really safe entry.

Same thing happened to me on 9/9!

RE: Watchlist - Investor method - isatrader - 2013-09-20

Another one from the Marine Transportation group has moved into Stage 2A this week. SHIP has been moving higher on increasing volume for the last four weeks and broke out this week above the previous swing high on the five times the average volume and the relative performance versus the S&P 500 closed above the zero line. Attached is the charts.