(2020-04-13, 10:18 PM)marry123 Wrote: Interesting fact is that if the stock market rallies over 50% from bottom, the bottom is in and bear market is over (we have rallied 50% right now so need to see if we can get over 50%). This has happened 20 of 20 times in the past. This data is from legendary trader Larry Williams who on March 17 became bullish and called the market bottom. He does not think we will see another low based on all his technical indicators.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAaPIW8GLy4

(2020-04-14, 10:30 AM)isatrader Wrote: I am going to put a test short of the S&P 500 on today if my broker will actually let me, at half my normal position size, with the aim of adding to a full position size if it works out, as I believe that we are around the pullback entry point in early Stage 4, but with no confirmation as yet. However, currently they won't let me short it - I'm using the XSPD.L which is the only standard S&P 500 short that I can find on the London Stock Exchange. But I keep getting a message saying that "Dealing is restricted on this security at this time".

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Update: I've managed to do it. There are two etfs for the XTRACKERS S&P 500 INVERSE DAILY UCITS ETF. One listed for in USD which is the XSPD and one listed in GBP which is XSPS. So i needed to use the XSPS and have put on a half position that's risks 1% of my account.

(2020-04-14, 02:44 PM)marry123 Wrote: Curious as to what you see here, based on Stan's method, that the S+P may be a good short here.  Can you perhaps put up a chart of the S+P pointing out what you see that may make it a short here?

Thank you.

(2020-04-14, 03:33 PM)isatrader Wrote:

(2020-04-14, 02:44 PM)marry123 Wrote: Curious as to what you see here, based on Stan's method, that the S+P may be a good short here.  Can you perhaps put up a chart of the S+P pointing out what you see that may make it a short here?

Thank you.

I mainly trade long so don't take my word as gospel on this, but I'm basing this trade on it being a potential pullback entry within the early phase of Stage 4.

The previous support that was knifed through during the initial decline, has now turned into a resistance zone, and we are now within that area, and also as you noted we are around the 50% retracement level, around which if the market is trending you'll often see a reversal and the trend would reassert itself.

I normally prefer to make pullback entries when I'm long by dropping down to the 2 hour chart and waiting for the move into Stage 2 on that intraday timeframe. But as this is a short pullback entry and I'm doing it through my pension account. I can only trade during London hours. So the US market will be open for another 4 and half hours after I can make trades on it. So i'm using the smaller position size into the strength today instead of waiting for a turn down.

I hope that all makes sense.