(2020-04-11, 11:42 AM)shaunattwood Wrote: ZM pulling back to 120 from recent BO @ 105 on huge volume that saw 165
Who isn't using Zoom now?

(2020-04-12, 01:25 PM)marry123 Wrote: Re: Still no trigger to go long the stock market based on stage analysis.

Hi all,

I have missed the entire recent rally in stocks following Stan's method. If one is disciplined one will wait until the SPX breaks above a rising 30 EMA to start going long stocks. I wonder, would one go long some stocks if they are above a rising 30 ema now even if the SPX is not above a rising 30 EMA? Unless I misunderstood, Stan advised to start buying individual stocks only when the stock market was back above a rising 30 ema weekly.

I have scanned for myself stock market bottom (bull market) charts from Stan's book (attached) to remind me of when to start buying stocks. It does hurt having to wait for the market to break above a rising 30 EMA to start entering stocks when one sees such a huge rally as we saw recently where folks made more money in a week or two than many will make in a few years.

Thanks for your thoughts.

(2020-04-12, 01:52 PM)malaguti Wrote:

(2020-04-12, 01:25 PM)marry123 Wrote: Re: Still no trigger to go long the stock market based on stage analysis.

Hi all,

I have missed the entire recent rally in stocks following Stan's method. If one is disciplined one will wait until the SPX breaks above a rising 30 EMA to start going long stocks. I wonder, would one go long some stocks if they are above a rising 30 ema now even if the SPX is not above a rising 30 EMA? Unless I misunderstood, Stan advised to start buying individual stocks only when the stock market was back above a rising 30 ema weekly.

I have scanned for myself stock market bottom (bull market) charts from Stan's book (attached) to remind me of when to start buying stocks. It does hurt having to wait for the market to break above a rising 30 EMA to start entering stocks when one sees such a huge rally as we saw recently where folks made more money in a week or two than many will make in a few years.

Thanks for your thoughts.

Its the Simple MA 30, rather than exponential ma. Does it hurt? yes especially given how far we are away from the sma, however if stocks were to start tanking again, we'd be justifying to ourselves how right we were to follow his method.
we haven't really tested the lows yet to be able to say we've had a bottom and therefore I think its far too early to say
the method is rock solid, over countless years its proved itself as being an incredibly effective entry criteria
i'd happily wait, and wait some more to get a proper confirmation that its safe to start pumping money into equities right now
if anything i'd be looking to other markets. however cash is king right now

(2020-04-12, 04:09 PM)isatrader Wrote: I'm in the process of preparing my latest breadth video. But thought due to the discussion here that this 40 year chart of the how the unemployment rates and markets correlate might make you less worried about missing the bounce by following the rules. As as you can see, history tells us the odds of further down side seems high when unemployment is trending up, as 3 out of 4 of the previous periods didn't bottom for over a year. Only 1990 bottomed quickly.

Note: the 1987 crash that everyone is comparing this time too, didn't have any uptick in unemployment. It was purely a stock market crash, not an economic crash.