Stage Analysis Forum - Trading & Investing using Stan Weinstein's Stocks Breakout method
US Stocks Breakouts & Breakdowns - SP500, NYSE, & Nasdaq Stock Charts - Printable Version

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RE: Watchlist - Investor method - theory6453 - 2013-09-15

(2013-09-07, 10:01 PM)theory6453 Wrote: My current favorite of those I found is PRGN as it rose about 40% since its breakout about 2 weeks ago on a great volume spike. PRGN was in a Stage 1 base for about a year prior to this. It’s above the MA, the MA is starting to rise, the relative performance is rising and just popped over the zero line, and finally cleared its overhead resistance. The current P&F price target is $17.75.

Not for the faint at heart, but PRGN had a MASSIVE pullback this past week but held against the breakout/support we identified recently. If I'm not mistaken, this is EXACTLY the setup that Stan put forth in the Investor method. The volume is very strong and the MA is still rising. The relative performance obviously took a major move downwards but it's still above the zero line.

I will probably sleep on it but I would seriously consider making an entry into this Monday morning when the markets open. I already own 2 stocks in the Marine Transpo sub-group so a third position might weight my portfolio a little too heavy towards this sector but I thought everyone would like to see it and make their own decision.

If I were to enter it, I would look for it to hold support at around $6.00 and then if it did violate support, I would have a pretty tight stop on in the $5.70 - $5.80 range.


RE: Watchlist - Investor method - isatrader - 2013-09-15

(2013-09-15, 07:09 PM)theory6453 Wrote: Not for the faint at heart, but PRGN had a MASSIVE pullback this past week but held against the breakout/support we identified recently. If I'm not mistaken, this is EXACTLY the setup that Stan put forth in the Investor method. The volume is very strong and the MA is still rising. The relative performance obviously took a major move downwards but it's still above the zero line.

Hi theory6453, unfortunately this is not the exact setup for the investor method secondary entry point as described in the book, as the pullback to Stage 2A breakout point should occur more gradually, and most importantly the volume should decrease on the pullback and not increase heavily like this one did.


RE: Watchlist - Investor method - theory6453 - 2013-09-15

(2013-09-15, 07:37 PM)isatrader Wrote:
(2013-09-15, 07:09 PM)theory6453 Wrote: Not for the faint at heart, but PRGN had a MASSIVE pullback this past week but held against the breakout/support we identified recently. If I'm not mistaken, this is EXACTLY the setup that Stan put forth in the Investor method. The volume is very strong and the MA is still rising. The relative performance obviously took a major move downwards but it's still above the zero line.

Hi theory6453, unfortunately this is not the exact setup for the investor method secondary entry point as described in the book, as the pullback to Stage 2A breakout point should occur more gradually, and most importantly the volume should decrease on the pullback and not increase heavily like this one did.

Hmmm... ok, thanks for the clarification. I got a little excited there lol.

So, how would you interpret this large pullback on increasing volume? I'm thinking we would still call this a Stage 2A but I guess maybe there's actually a higher percentage now of actually breaking support since the volume is so heavy?

Thoughts?


RE: Watchlist - Investor method - isatrader - 2013-09-15

(2013-09-15, 08:07 PM)theory6453 Wrote: Hmmm... ok, thanks for the clarification. I got a little excited there lol.

So, how would you interpret this large pullback on increasing volume? I'm thinking we would still call this a Stage 2A but I guess maybe there's actually a higher percentage now of actually breaking support since the volume is so heavy?

Thoughts?

It's definitely in Stage 2A and the sector has been recovering, and it had good volume on the breakout, but it was the weakest in it's sector last week, and increasing volume on the pullback is not what you want to see for the method, so keep it on your watchlist and see how if reacts around the breakout zone, as Weinstein's suggests that you should look for it to stabilize near the breakout level before getting in. So a strong down candle like last week that closed near the lows on heavy volume doesn't suggest stabilization currently. But it could change in the coming weeks, but also look at the other stocks in the sector as well, to see whats happening with them, as remember its a top down method where you look at the market, then the sector and then finally the individual stocks.


RE: Watchlist - Investor method - Lplate - 2013-09-16

p 59 of the book mentions buying frenzy and this looks to me what happened in this sector a week or so ago. Weinstein says to buy on th break. but of course you are then up against the daytraders and hot money


RE: Watchlist - Investor method - isatrader - 2013-09-16

SOCL is a ETF of social media stocks that's been hitting new highs for the last few months after breaking out into Stage 2 early in the year.

Relative performance has been very strong and increasing volume has come in over the last few months. It's quite extended currently and way beyond the ideal entry point, but I thought it was worth highlighting to research some of the individual stocks in the sector further, as they may present opportunities to get in as continuation buys should we have a pullback in the near future.

Here's the ETFs current top ten holdings:

12.19% TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD
11.95% FACEBOOK INC-A
11.65% SINA CORP US
9.92% LINKEDIN CORP - A
6.31% GROUPON INC
6.14% PANDORA MEDIA INC
5.65% YANDEX NV-A
4.89% DENA CO LTD
3.88% GOOGLE INC
3.58% NEXON CO. LTD.


RE: Watchlist - Traders method - isatrader - 2013-09-16

I came across SOHU today, which is in the internet sector near the top of a four month consolidation pattern in Stage 2. Relative performance is good and it's already done it's average weekly volume so far today. So is one for the watchlist imo for a possible Stage 2 continuation move above the July swing high. Attached are my charts.


RE: Watchlist - Traders method - isatrader - 2013-09-17

Attached is some yesterdays continuation moves on large volume. FU, GSAT, HTH, KS, OMER, ORB, YOKU