Stage Analysis Forum - Trading & Investing using Stan Weinstein's Stocks Breakout method
US Stocks Breakouts & Breakdowns - SP500, NYSE, & Nasdaq Stock Charts - Printable Version

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RE: Watchlist - Traders method - goodtyneguy - 2013-07-27

The uranium ETF URA with one of it's constituents UR Energy URE. See the investor thread for comments on URA. Comments welcome Smile

       

       


RE: Watchlist - Investor method - goodtyneguy - 2013-07-27

Another industry on my investor watch list is the shipping industry. I've used a chart of SEA the Guggenheim shipping ETF to represent the industry in the absence of a dedicated index. If I'm missing something kindly let me know.

       

As you can see I have interpreted the industry to be in a stage 2A and whilst recent price action is no pretty and it is struggling to find momentum I would best describe it as a base on base. The higher low and it finding support at the 200 dma arguable three times is encouraging. Anyway as we are interested at playing the strongest stocks in the industry I thought I would bring Teekay Tankers (TNK) and Nordic American (NAT] to your attention as a potential investor buy. These stocks are also currently paying a dividend of 4.07% and 6.3% respectively which is nice bit of icing on the cake assuming these can at least be maintained. I used to listen to Chris Waltzec on Gold Seek radio once a upon a time and I remember his stock picks often included shipping stocks which always paid good dividends so it seems like this is an industry standard.

First TNK, has had about an eight month basing period despite the thirty week MA only recently flattening out. If it had not been for the basing period I would have categorized it as been in a stage 1A but if it is on the verge of breaking out then it surely must be in a stage 1B? What do you say Isa?

       

Next up NAT, I tend to think that it's a bit early in stage 1 to consider this one but the volume that has come in is leading me to think this one is going to be another one that does not look back from here.

       

Comments welcome.

RE: Watchlist - Investor method - isatrader - 2013-07-28

(2013-07-27, 09:58 PM)goodtyneguy Wrote: First TNK, has had about an eight month basing period despite the thirty week MA only recently flattening out. If it had not been for the basing period I would have categorized it as been in a stage 1A but if it is on the verge of breaking out then it surely must be in a stage 1B? What do you say Isa?

I've attached my charts, and included the weekly Stage Analysis Technical Attributes chart also, which shows that it moved up one point this week to a 6 out of 9, which is consistent with scores for Stage 1A to Stage 1B from the examples threads. But Stage 1B stocks tended to be more towards the 8 end of the scale, and so that suggests from the technical attributes that it's turning higher earlier than average, and hence why you said that you would have initially categorized it in Stage 1A above.

Looking at the price action it's been in a multi year Stage 4 decline, and last years prolonged basing period and eventual collapse now gives it some quite strong near term resistance to deal with. Relative performance is improving, but the volume has been very weak lately. Also I noticed the angle of the 200 day MA is quite steep still. So my personal opinion would be that although it's near the Stage 2A breakout point and hence a Stage 1B currently. That it's still quite early in it's recovery and that the January high and 2011 lows around the 3.5 zone might give some resistance.

If you do trade it, the stop loss distance is quite good for an investor position at around 4.5x ATR(200).

RE: Watchlist - Investor method - goodtyneguy - 2013-07-28

Thanks isa, if I get the right volume I will probably get in with the knowledge that if it comes back into the base and does not drop out of the bottom at least I might be able to collect a dividend or two.

RE: Watchlist - Traders method - isatrader - 2013-07-31

CHK came up in the Daily Breakouts and breakdowns thread last night here: http://stageanalysis.net/forum/showthread.php?tid=17&pid=1197#pid1197 and is continuing it's new Stage 2A breakout in the early trade today.

The trader stop loss would go under the most recent swing low which was 22.09 and the whole number - so under 22, which would give a trader stop loss distance of around 2x ATR(200) which is good for a breakout entry. Attached is the charts.

RE: Watchlist - Traders method - goodtyneguy - 2013-07-31

NASDAQ:MAKO gapped up today into a stage 2A. The 30 week simple moving average has just flattened out but volume must be something like 15 times the average. Worth a butchers on Friday also for and investor position imo, a relatively tight stop would be in order.

RE: Watchlist - Traders method - gbarbs - 2013-07-31

I see a low risk entry for MY today. It did pierce its 150 day MA on the daily but I am looking at the stop being set at 1.54 with stock at 1.57 today so pretty low risk.

   
(2013-07-31, 03:17 PM)isatrader Wrote: CHK came up in the Daily Breakouts and breakdowns thread last night here: http://stageanalysis.net/forum/showthread.php?tid=17&pid=1197#pid1197 and is continuing it's new Stage 2A breakout in the early trade today.

The trader stop loss would go under the most recent swing low which was 22.09 and the whole number - so under 22, which would give a trader stop loss distance of around 2x ATR(200) which is good for a breakout entry. Attached is the charts.

isa what about the volume on this one? i don't see much of anything there

RE: Watchlist - Traders method - isatrader - 2013-07-31

(2013-07-31, 06:09 PM)gbarbs Wrote: isa what about the volume on this one? i don't see much of anything there

It's below average, and no increase on the breakout, but the other technicals are good, as it gets a maximum SATA* score of 9 out of 9 (* Stage Analysis Technical Attributes), so as it's an S&P 500 stock I'd be more inclined to give less weight to the lack of volume personally as large caps volume profiles are different to very small cap stocks due to indexing etc. So although not an ideal setup, it still has most of the building blocks that we are look for and hence could be worth considering which is why I highlighted it.