Stage Analysis Forum - Trading & Investing using Stan Weinstein's Stocks Breakout method
US Stocks Breakouts & Breakdowns - SP500, NYSE, & Nasdaq Stock Charts - Printable Version

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RE: US Stocks - Watchlist and Discussion (Premium) - isatrader - 2014-05-09

(2014-05-09, 09:58 AM)shaunattwood Wrote: SYMC is going to pop up today on its earnings, if it reaches 21, would that be Stan's short sale point B (page 229)? it appears to have formed a massive head & shoulders last year and these tech stocks are showing a pattern of jumping on earnings and then selling off sharply

It looks like a very good example of a pullback to point B within early Stage 4A on the weekly, and looks to have stabilised, as can be seen clearly on the 2 hour chart, which is forming a large Stage 3 pattern and is close to breaking down. So personally I'd be looking for a potential entry on the breakdown to Stage 4A on the 2hr chart which would be a close below the horizontal trendline that I've highlighted on the chart.

That's how I'd play it, but I know you tend to be more aggressive with your entries, so good luck whatever way you decide to play it.

RE: US Stocks - Watchlist and Discussion (Premium) - shaunattwood - 2014-05-09

Finally had time to spend the morning researching potential short sales. Here are some more for the short sale watch list:

TIBX, NDLS, DTSI, ASCMA, MSG, GEOS, OCN, FXCM, CVT, TDC

TDC & TIBX have 4 and 3 year tops respectively, but TIBX has had a bigger run-up, up from $3, making it one of the best candidates upon snapping its neckline at 18

Would like to see pullbacks to short CVT at 30, FXCM 14+, MSG 54

The lock-up on CVT just expired a week ago when it was breaching its neckline around 30. I'm convinced lock-ups expiring have hastened the demise of TWTR, VJET and PBPB. Researching CVT, I drew the conclusion that a particularly profitable short formation is when we fulfil the Stan neckline breach (point A in the book) in combination with a lock-up expiring as happened with CVT, which plunged 5 points. I'm going to do further research for such candidates and would appreciate any other ideas.

I listened to the conference call last night and gleaned some good info, but my overall impression was that it was more of a micro strategy than Stan's. Stan mentioned buying breakouts that aren't super extended from the 150 day ma, but I'm seeing a lot of such recommendations bandied about these days, such as stocks that are up 500 to 1000% already being classified as fresh breakouts. I don't buy into overextension as the macro risk reward picture is too warped.

RE: US Stocks - Watchlist and Discussion (Premium) - isatrader - 2014-05-09

(2014-05-09, 01:36 PM)shaunattwood Wrote: TIBX, NDLS, DTSI, ASCMA, MSG, GEOS, OCN, FXCM, CVT, TDC

I listened to the conference call last night and gleaned some good info, but my overall impression was that it was more of a micro strategy than Stan's. Stan mentioned buying breakouts that aren't super extended from the 150 day ma, but I'm seeing a lot of such recommendations bandied about these days, such as stocks that are up 500 to 1000% already being classified as fresh breakouts. I don't buy into overextension as the macro risk reward picture is too warped.

A few of those have come up in the thread over the last few months like MSG, GEOS, and OCN. So it is good to see we are seeing the same things.

I listened to the Minervini webinar last night as well, and it helped add a little bit more context to some of the things he talks about in his book. The tennis ball action on normal pullbacks within an uptrend and going through the risk reward concepts that they use etc. But I didn't really get anything new from it that I haven't already read in his book.

His strategy is mostly to buy continuation breakouts after a stock is already well into Stage 2, and is showing a "volatility contraction pattern*" with solid earnings growth. And so is combination of Weinstein's trader method and O'Neils Canslim method, and hence much more short term focused than Weinstein who favours his investor method.

*The volatility contraction pattern (VCP) an excellent concept to learn imo, as it fits beautifully with Weinstein's trader method ideal entry point and helps to decrease risk, as it enables a very tight stop loss position.

RE: US Stocks - Watchlist and Discussion (Premium) - shaunattwood - 2014-05-09

is BSX presently a neckline short?

(2014-05-09, 01:59 PM)isatrader Wrote:
(2014-05-09, 01:36 PM)shaunattwood Wrote: TIBX, NDLS, DTSI, ASCMA, MSG, GEOS, OCN, FXCM, CVT, TDC

I listened to the conference call last night and gleaned some good info, but my overall impression was that it was more of a micro strategy than Stan's. Stan mentioned buying breakouts that aren't super extended from the 150 day ma, but I'm seeing a lot of such recommendations bandied about these days, such as stocks that are up 500 to 1000% already being classified as fresh breakouts. I don't buy into overextension as the macro risk reward picture is too warped.

A few of those have come up in the thread over the last few months like MSG, GEOS, and OCN. So it is good to see we are seeing the same things.

I listened to the Minervini webinar last night as well, and it helped add a little bit more context to some of the things he talks about in his book. The tennis ball action on normal pullbacks within an uptrend and going through the risk reward concepts that they use etc. But I didn't really get anything new from it that I haven't already read in his book.

His strategy is mostly to buy continuation breakouts after a stock is already well into Stage 2, and is showing a "volatility contraction pattern*" with solid earnings growth. And so is combination of Weinstein's trader method and O'Neils Canslim method, and hence much more short term focused than Weinstein who favours his investor method.

*The volatility contraction pattern (VCP) an excellent concept to learn imo, as it fits beautifully with Weinstein's trader method ideal entry point and helps to decrease risk, as it enables a very tight stop loss position.


RE: US Stocks - Watchlist and Discussion (Premium) - isatrader - 2014-05-09

(2014-05-09, 05:18 PM)shaunattwood Wrote: is BSX presently a neckline short?

I'd say it's in early Stage 3A, but there's a chance it could make an early breakdown if it can close below the 200 day MA as it's had a big Stage 2 run up, but could have near term support down to the 11 area or so, and still has a strongly rising 200 day MA. So hence the only early Stage 3 rating.

       

RE: US Stocks - Watchlist and Discussion (Premium) - isatrader - 2014-05-09

A few additions to the short watchlist - WPPGY (Stage 3), AIRM (Stage 3, as 30 week MA still rising), CODI (Stage 4A), UBNT (Stage 4A)

RE: Watchlist - Traders method - isatrader - 2014-05-11

Stage 4A stocks for the watchlist - YELP, RATE, HGR, KMPR, AMCX, BDBD, PGTI, MWIV, BREW, UBNT, CODI

RE: Watchlist - Traders method - isatrader - 2014-05-11

US stocks for the short watchlist - TDC (Stage 4B), BCEI (Stage 3B), FLDM (Stage 3A), ANDE (Stage 3A), ATLS (Stage 4), BSX (Stage 3A), SYMC (Stage 4), AIRM (Stage 3), WPPGY (Stage 3)