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+--- Thread: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions (/Thread-Stage-Analysis-Beginners-Questions)
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RE: Beginners Questions - terces - 2015-02-08
Isatrader - thank you for the thoughtful reply. As the last few years of this monster bull rally have proven, those who follow doom and gloom attitudes about the market were left behind in the dust. I back tested Stans' approach against the dogmatic contrarian approach, and in every single market position, we would have been much better off following the theory of Stage Analysis.
I am very convinced of this strategy, but have a lot more studying to do and I'm sure will be back to you with more questions. As you suggested I will be digging into the Market Breadth thread.
I do have some ideas on the short side and will participate with those.
The other contrarian opinion which has been postulated is: what the market least expects is a long slow, almost imperceptible downtrend of 10% or 15% over 2015, and so that is what is most likely to occur. Whatever happens, using the Weight of Evidence, we should be able to detect these trends instead of using esoteric methods for guessing at them.
Thanks again for your insight.
RE: Beginners Questions - keithbin - 2015-02-08
re: moving average type? apologies if this has already been asked/answered; if so I must have missed it. What MA type do you guys use? In Stan's book he talks of a simple MA but the chart examples reflect weighted MA's - and of course these days exponential seems to be all the rage.
Thoughts on this? Does it really make much of a difference? With investing not so much I guess, but trading?
RE: Beginners Questions - isatrader - 2015-02-08
(2015-02-08, 05:04 PM)keithbin Wrote: re: moving average type? apologies if this has already been asked/answered; if so I must have missed it. What MA type do you guys use? In Stan's book he talks of a simple MA but the chart examples reflect weighted MA's - and of course these days exponential seems to be all the rage.
Thoughts on this? Does it really make much of a difference? With investing not so much I guess, but trading?
It is a frequently asked question, but is my fault for not having a frequently Asked Question page set up. Which I will sort out one day. Maybe I'll do a small ebook of the SA basics if I get time one day.
Anyway, I started off using the weight MA's as in the book examples. But after questioning Stan and studying the more recent Global trend Alert (GTA) Newsletters that he produces, simple moving averages are what he recommends using. As the weighted MA's were only in the book examples as that's what the Mansfield charts at the time used. So on your weekly charts just use a 10 and 30 week simple MA. And on the Daily charts he uses the 50 day, 150 day and 200 day MA's.
See the first post in the Stage Analysis Study Guide - Questions and Answers thread for marked up examples of how we have the weekly and daily charts setup on the Stage Analysis board.
RE: Beginners Questions - terces - 2015-02-10
I am having a hard time getting my hands on the Short Interest Ratio for Canadian listed stocks. TD Waterhouse will sometimes begrudgingly give me this info verbally, if I am lucky to connect with a cooperative agent on the phone.
I just signed up temporary to StockWatch but it appears they only show short as a percentage of the total stock float.
Does anyone know where I can obtain Latest Short Interest?
Or on the other hand, is the number for short as a percentage of total stock float, a useful number?
RE: Beginners Questions - pcabc - 2015-02-10
Does anyone know of a source of technical charts for funds? Just want to plot a chart MA30. If I can't find a chart tabulated data would be useful, I could do this myself.
Have a feeling I might end up doing this by hand (manually grabbing into a spreadsheet).
--- update --
I note that Google has some historic data. However, it is not offered for a convenient download and appears at maximum of 30 lines at a time - as MA30 is approx MA150 days that is annoying.
RE: Beginners Questions - isatrader - 2015-02-10
(2015-02-10, 04:49 PM)terces Wrote: I am having a hard time getting my hands on the Short Interest Ratio for Canadian listed stocks. TD Waterhouse will sometimes begrudgingly give me this info verbally, if I am lucky to connect with a cooperative agent on the phone.
I just signed up temporary to StockWatch but it appears they only show short as a percentage of the total stock float.
Does anyone know where I can obtain Latest Short Interest?
Or on the other hand, is the number for short as a percentage of total stock float, a useful number?
I've had a search, and here's a few that I found:
http://www.tsx.com/news/short-position-reports
http://www.financialpost.com/markets/data/market-short_pos.html
Canadian Stock screener that can screen using the short interest ratio or short interest %
http://web.tmxmoney.com/screener.php?locale=EN
Subscription service with Canadian stocks:
http://www.gurufocus.com/short-stocks.php
US only:
http://shortsqueeze.com
RE: Beginners Questions - pcabc - 2015-02-11
(2015-02-10, 09:12 PM)pcabc Wrote: Does anyone know of a source of technical charts for funds? Just want to plot a chart MA30. If I can't find a chart tabulated data would be useful, I could do this myself.
Have a feeling I might end up doing this by hand (manually grabbing into a spreadsheet).
--- update --
I note that Google has some historic data. However, it is not offered for a convenient download and appears at maximum of 30 lines at a time - as MA30 is approx MA150 days that is annoying.
--- Update 2 ---
Just noticed that funds.ft.com now plots technicals on their interactive chart. Only just noticed this. Perhaps it is new. Well done FT.
RE: Beginners Questions - terces - 2015-02-14
Worden TC2000 is the program I am using.