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RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions - miche - 2020-11-19

I backtested on the charts - really cool idea that Fishhook setup. Thanks! 

Yeah I guess with OIH I was thinking as a long term investment since energy is cheap. Good point I'd want to stay away from a multi year decline. LOL I see your point re charts that run from the top left to the bottom right. I compared this to AMZN  Tongue  cheers!


RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions - isatrader - 2020-11-19

(2020-11-19, 07:22 AM)miche Wrote: I backtested on the charts - really cool idea that Fishhook setup. Thanks! 

Yeah I guess with OIH I was thinking as a long term investment since energy is cheap. Good point I'd want to stay away from a multi year decline. LOL I see your point re charts that run from the top left to the bottom right. I compared this to AMZN  Tongue  cheers!

I posted about $SONO earlier in the day on the US stocks thread. But though I'd share it here as it is a great example of what we were talking about. Note how it only had a small Stage 4 decline before developing a large Stage 1 base. See how the bulk of the weekly chart is in Stage 1 range. This type of base is what you want to see with a contraction in volatility near the top of the right hand side of the chart above the 30 week moving average, before it breaks out into Stage 2A on massive volume and RS at new highs. These are the A+ characteristics that we talk about in the method, and although it could still fail, the strong characteristics give a higher probability of it advancing into Stage 2. 

   


RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions - miche - 2020-11-19

(2020-11-19, 07:24 PM) Wrote:
(2020-11-19, 07:22 AM)miche Wrote: I backtested on the charts - really cool idea that Fishhook setup. Thanks! 

Yeah I guess with OIH I was thinking as a long term investment since energy is cheap. Good point I'd want to stay away from a multi year decline. LOL I see your point re charts that run from the top left to the bottom right. I compared this to AMZN  Tongue  cheers!

I posted about $SONO earlier in the day on the US stocks thread. But though I'd share it here as it is a great example of what we were talking about. Note how it only had a small Stage 4 decline before developing a large Stage 1 base. See how the bulk of the weekly chart is in Stage 1 range. This type of base is what you want to see with a contraction in volatility near the top of the right hand side of the chart above the 30 week moving average, before it breaks out into Stage 2A on massive volume and RS at new highs. These are the A+ characteristics that we talk about in the method, and although it could still fail, the strong characteristics give a higher probability of it advancing into Stage 2. 

Oh wow! I see the strenth since it\'s been above to 30MA for a good amount of time and a pretty small stage 4. How would you catch that breakout ahead of time? Would you look at after hours trading? I seem to keep missing out and of course want to minimize risk. Thanks!


RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions - isatrader - 2020-11-19

(2020-11-19, 07:46 PM)miche Wrote: Oh wow! I see the strenth since it\'s been above to 30MA for a good amount of time and a pretty small stage 4. How would you catch that breakout ahead of time? Would you look at after hours trading? I seem to keep missing out and of course want to minimize risk. Thanks!

It's an earnings gap, so you would use buyable gap up entry rules or the fishhook setup that I posted videos about. Personally, I prefer the fishhook, as you wait and see how the gap up closes, and then that is your entry point if it moves above it in the following days.

SONO was on the weekend watchlist. So tend to find most of the good ones ahead of time.


RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions - miche - 2020-11-20

(2020-11-19, 07:51 PM)isatrader Wrote:
(2020-11-19, 07:46 PM)miche Wrote: Oh wow! I see the strenth since it\'s been above to 30MA for a good amount of time and a pretty small stage 4. How would you catch that breakout ahead of time? Would you look at after hours trading? I seem to keep missing out and of course want to minimize risk. Thanks!

It's an earnings gap, so you would use buyable gap up entry rules or the fishhook setup that I posted videos about. Personally, I prefer the fishhook, as you wait and see how the gap up closes, and then that is your entry point if it moves above it in the following days.

SONO was on the weekend watchlist. So tend to find most of the good ones ahead of time.

I see so it's better to use the fishhook and wait until later in the day to see how well the gap up holds rather than buy at the open you'd notice the high volume. It was on your watchlist so from there you'd want to keep checking it everyday? 

Do you think is important to catch the open in general when trading? I'll check things on my phone when I wake up but hard to look at charts at the open. I don't trade/hop on computer until mid-morning which is 12:30pm EST Got to get kid sleeping w/o me  Angel cheers!


RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions - isatrader - 2020-11-20

(2020-11-20, 06:20 AM)miche Wrote: I see so it's better to use the fishhook and wait until later in the day to see how well the gap up holds rather than buy at the open you'd notice the high volume. It was on your watchlist so from there you'd want to keep checking it everyday? 

Do you think is important to catch the open in general when trading? I'll check things on my phone when I wake up but hard to look at charts at the open. I don't trade/hop on computer until mid-morning which is 12:30pm EST Got to get kid sleeping w/o me  Angel cheers!

I use alerts that I set in the evenings that notify me via my phone, as most breakouts happen in the first few hours of the trading day when I'm working. So I can quickly login and then check if I'm going to make the trade or not. It's all about preplanning your trades. You should know what you are looking for and the levels for the potential entry and stop loss in advance. So it's then just a matter of executing the trade if all else is correct.


RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions - miche - 2020-11-20

(2020-11-20, 09:25 AM)isatrader Wrote: I use alerts that I set in the evenings that notify me via my phone, as most breakouts happen in the first few hours of the trading day when I'm working. So I can quickly login and then check if I'm going to make the trade or not. It's all about preplanning your trades. You should know what you are looking for and the levels for the potential entry and stop loss in advance. So it's then just a matter of executing the trade if all else is correct.

I see that's right since we'd know the support and resistance levels. For example possible entry to ADBE - it's been in consolidation phase so we'd wait for the breakout above the 30 MA on high volume. Possibly the in the 505 range? I agree I'll look at chart mid- morning and there's already been a breakout. cheers


RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions - miche - 2020-11-22

(2020-11-20, 05:14 PM)miche Wrote: I see that's right since we'd know the support and resistance levels. For example possible entry to ADBE - it's been in consolidation phase so we'd wait for the breakout above the 30 MA on high volume. Possibly the in the 505 range? I agree I'll look at chart mid- morning and there's already been a breakout. cheers

Or from the weekend scans I\'m adding alerts at the levels (w price padding )Etsy - 141SPWR - 21.70NOVA - 35 I'll put half the position on the open only if we got breakout above resistance on 2-3x volume. It's best to trade on the 2hour time frame to see breakout w strong volume coming in. When would you add the other half of the position? At the close? Thanks

How is SPWR making move on light volume? Well I checked Nova in the morning yesterday it was breaking out and had light volume. Looking back at the 2hour chart from yesterday 11/23 looks volume came in at 12pm my time. Lunch time Tongue I was looking to get a position on SPWR and NOVA. Maybe just NOVA since it looks stronger - perhaps w fishhook technique Wink Thanks