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RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions - ianbate222 - 2020-11-09
Hi Isa, with oil stocks having huge runs today do you see any worthy of entry? CNQ looks like it could be setting up for a buy but still needs to meet stage analysis requirements, but it is getting closer.
Thanks for your thought on this sector, I realize it is still stage 4 but maybe it is starting to fight its way back up.
Ian
RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions - miche - 2020-11-10
(2020-11-07, 12:49 PM)isatrader Wrote:(2020-11-04, 06:41 PM)miche Wrote: Are your screens focusing on Stage 2 continuation breakout? If we're looking for an early Stage 2A we'd screen for stage one right?
I'm looking for an entry in TSM and it looks like it's breaking resistance and volume looks good on two hour chart but Relative Strength line is pointing downwards. I'm I missing something? Thanks
Looking at IBD the average volume is -11% so I guess I answered my own question I would wait until the volume increased?
My screens look for multiple things. So they cover stocks in Stages 1 and 2. But they all focus on strong relative strength and rising moving averages etc. I've found when looking for early entries points, like Stage 2A, that sometimes its easiest to just go through all the charts in a particular group that you are focusing on visually. As sector themes can be one of the strongest indicators that a Stage 2A breakout will work. As if multiple stocks in the same group are all shaping up in the same way, and ready to breakout or already breaking out into Stage 2 on increased volume across the group. Then it's a good sign that the Stage 2 advance will succeed.
TSM is in a reasonably good position, but volume has only remained around average this week as many stocks have been exploding higher. So although technically in good shape. It's not showing strong demand as yet. Although that may come in if it attempts to breakout next week to new highs. But you want to see at least a 50% increase in daily volume on a breakout, but ideally 2 or 3 times at least. So 100% or more than the 50 day average volume. As that increased demand is what will drive a stock higher for more than just a day or two.
Ok great that's really helpful - makes sense to confirm the breakout look across the sector. Cheers! Yeah semi have been leading when I do my scans some good growth! Thanks again!
RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions - JordanBrogan - 2020-11-12
Got a question
Looking at the charts of EBAY, this is looking like a stage 4 decline right? and because of the wear RS could be a good Short, if it breaks down the resistance it's currently at?
Jordan
RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions - isatrader - 2020-11-12
(2020-11-12, 05:59 PM)JordanBrogan Wrote: Got a question
Looking at the charts of EBAY, this is looking like a stage 4 decline right? and because of the wear RS could be a good Short, if it breaks down the resistance it's currently at?
It's in Stage 3 currently, as note the 30 week MA is still strongly rising and it has so far found support at prior long term high from 2018 and is also only still in the first significant pullback to the 30 week MA since the Stage 2 advance started. It may well fail and fail into Stage 4, but if it holds support, then it could recover back above the 30 week MA into the base. Be careful shorting stocks with a still strongly rising 30 week MA. To be Stage 4 the 30 week MA must be declining on the breakdown week.
RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions - miche - 2020-11-18
Ok so I missed the breakout with TSM. I need to check my charts more on the daily.
So if I'm looking for an entry I would wait until we get another spike in volume? We are having a bit of a pullback currently would that be an entry? Also isn't that a bad sign that the price went below 11/17 the breakout? Or only if it's 10% below breakout? Thanks!
RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions - miche - 2020-11-18
I missed the breakout with OIH
Do I wait for the pullback? I feel like I have the right idea just missing the timing - chasing kids in the am LOL cheers
Buyable Gaps Ups and Fishhook Setup - isatrader - 2020-11-18
RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions - isatrader - 2020-11-18
(2020-11-18, 07:50 PM)miche Wrote: I missed the breakout with OIH
I feel like I have the right idea just missing the timing - chasing kids in the am LOL cheers
You haven't missed the breakout with OIH, as it's only in Stage 1 currently, still developing its base, and very much still under major resistance from a multi year Stage 4 decline with RS still below a declining zero line. Stage 1 is tradable for short term traders on the swings, but if using Stage Analysis you should be looking for stocks that have only had minor Stage 4 declines before basing in Stage 1 if you are trying to get in at the Stage 2A entry point. As a multi year decline is not a good sign of a healthy stock that's in demand, and normally would require a large base to work through the resistance or some significant change in the business. So try to avoid charts that run from the top left to the bottom right, and instead find charts that run from the bottom left sideways and are tightening up near the highs.